Brittany Lockley

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Colorado State University researchers have lowered their outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season as atmospheric conditions become increasingly favorable for the development of El Niño, a climate pattern that typically suppresses tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin.&nbsp;The updated forecast now projects&nbsp;nine named storms,&nbsp;four hurricanes, and&nbsp;one major hurricane&nbsp;of Category 3 strength or higher. While those numbers are below the long-term seasonal average, the outlook reflects activity across the entire Atlantic Basin. It does not indicate where storms may eventually track or make landfall.&nbsp;The expected increase in El Niño is one of the primary reasons behind the reduced forecast. During El Niño events, stronger-than-normal upper-level winds spread across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, increasing vertical wind shear. This hostile environment can disrupt the structure of developing tropical systems by separating thunderstorms from their low-level circulation, making it more difficult for storms to strengthen into hurricanes.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 095127-1783525916256.png">Despite the anticipated increase in wind shear, ocean temperatures across parts of the Atlantic remain warmer than average. Warm water serves as the fuel source for tropical cyclones, meaning any storm that develops in a favorable pocket of lower wind shear could still intensify. How these competing factors evolve during the peak of hurricane season will play a major role in determining the basin’s overall activity.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 095236-1783525964091.png">The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season occurs from mid-August through October, when sea surface temperatures are at their warmest and atmospheric conditions are generally most supportive of tropical development. Although seasonal forecasts help estimate how active a season may be, they cannot predict where individual storms will form or who may be impacted.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 095047-1783525931294.png">Residents along the Gulf Coast and Atlantic coastline need to prepare now rather than focus solely on the seasonal numbers. History has shown that even quieter hurricane seasons can produce devastating landfalls if a single storm reaches a populated coastline.&nbsp;

Colorado State University Scales Back 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Hazy skies will be hovering over portions of the Gulf and Southeastern United States through this weekend, at least! Why so hazy? Saharan dust will be sent flying over the region at times, thick enough to make a difference in the color of the sun and potentially to air quality. Expect some of the thickest dust to hover over Florida this weekend (forecast below).<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/2026-07-08 08-34-22-1783521472062.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>This is not unusual for this time of year. Outbreaks of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) typically occur in the Altantic during the summer months as strong westerly waves move off of Africa, sending dust out over the Atlantic. Depending on the speed and intensity of the SAL outbreak, these plumes of dry, dusty air can reach parts of the U.S. at times, even the middle of the country!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 083614-1783521420831.png"><h1>Heat</h1>Hot and humid conditions will persist in the Southeast while the Saharan Air moves through. While the SAL does dry-out the mid-levels of the atmosphere, the bottom 5,000 feet is typically unaffected, meaning humidity won't change much even though there may be fewer storms. Heat alerts have been issued where the heat index could top 108 - 115° in the days ahead.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 083541-1783521434581.png">These are dangerous heat index values, especially over 110°. Consider avoiding strenuous activity during the middle of the day, take many breaks in the shade or air conditioning, and drink plenty of water!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 083547-1783521444340.png">Highs could challenge several records in Central Florida in the days ahead. With highs approaching the upper 90s, it will be incredible hot, especially when humidity is factored in.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 083558-1783521444339.png">

Saharan Dust, Excessive Heat Impact the Southeast

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Kevin Schneider

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A ridge of high pressure is building in our west, bringing the return of warm temperatures. Temperatures soaring past 115 could lead to heat illness toward the middle of the week. Temperatures, even in the Phoenix area, will stay above average for much of the week, peaking on Wednesday. An Extreme Heat Warning covers the area and extends into far southern California, where Heat Advisories are also in place.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 034132-1783503702733.png">Forecast highs on Wednesday will be running upwards of 10 degrees above average, but no records are in jeopardy.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 082109-1783520478416.png">Temperatures will continue to stay hot through the next few days. Even though this is not record breaking heat, it's still dangerous and difficult on your body.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 082134-1783520499739.png">Long-term models suggest this might be something to get used to, however. This ridge looks to linger in the area and could strengthen by next weekend. The Climate Prediction Center is highlighting much of the west with above-average temperatures into the middle of July.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-07 161953-1783462799142.png">Some of these forecast highs for cities like Billings, Montana could could close to beating their all-time record highs. If we get above 108 on Sunday, this would be an all time record. The current forecast for Sunday is 107.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-07 162046-1783462851930.png">Heat safety will be a key concern going forward. Be sure to stay hydrated and keep looking in the back seat before locking the car.

Taban Sharifi

Warm Weather Returns Out West

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

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Severe weather is in the forecast across the Plains and Midwest this week. A mid-level trough is moving into the area, which brings unsettled weather and thunderstorms over the next few days.On Tuesday, South Dakota had wind gusts over 70 mph. The primary threats from the severe thunderstorms that come in today will be severe wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 025839-1783501134364.png">There is an ENHANCED risk for severe weather for portions of Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska. The main threat here will be strong damaging winds that could exceed 75 mph.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 081348-1783520075881.png">A SLIGHT (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe weather is in place across the Front Range with another slight risk area for portions of KA, IL, and IN.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 081445-1783520090818.png">A MARGINAL risk for severe weather has been added for Friday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 081842-1783520340557.png"><h2>Timing</h2>Storms will reignite through the afternoon hours, following the front. Another batch of forms fires up along the Front Range through late-week and storms progress East.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/07083-1783520209943.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>A few locations could get hit a couple of times by thunderstorms this week, which means that some areas may see some locally heavier rainfall totals. Keep an eye on flood alerts in your area. With repeated rounds of storms, you may be at risk for flash flooding.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 081809-1783520294209.png">For more on this active forecast, be sure to join us on WeatherNation!

Stormy Pattern Ahead for the Plains and Midwest

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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The Aspen Acres fire continues to burn in Southern Colorado. Evacuations remain in place but containment is increasing around Pueblo.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2074131250290257963" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2074131250290257963"></div>The Babylon and Cottonwood fires burning in Utah are now among some of the largest fires the state has ever seen.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-07 160819-1783462106419.png">Numerous additional wildfires continue to burn across Utah, Colorado, and Arizona, which have scorched tens of thousands of acres over the past week. Below is the most recent acreage of the larger fires in Utah and Colorado, along with their containment.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 080948-1783519793438.png"><h1>Fire Outlooks</h1>The fire weather outlooks are minimal as we head through the week, but there is a chance for some dry thunderstorms across the Front Range of the Rockies this week.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/07082-1783519888398.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>This is especially important as we move past the 4th of July, especially as warmer temperatures build.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-27 043144-1782556311355.png">Residents are encouraged to stay informed, follow local evacuation orders, and do their part to help prevent the start and spread of wildfires this summer.

Warm Weather Returns Out West

Stormy Pattern Ahead for the Plains and Midwest

Babylon Fire in UT Surpasses 100,000 Acres, CO Fires Continue to Grow

Colorado State University Scales Back 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Saharan Dust, Excessive Heat Impact the Southeast

Warm Weather Returns Out West

Stormy Pattern Ahead for the Plains and Midwest

Babylon Fire in UT Surpasses 100,000 Acres, CO Fires Continue to Grow

Colorado State University Scales Back 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Saharan Dust, Excessive Heat Impact the Southeast

Warm Weather Returns Out West

Stormy Pattern Ahead for the Plains and Midwest

Babylon Fire in UT Surpasses 100,000 Acres, CO Fires Continue to Grow