Dave Holder

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<p>It's been a week since the devastating floods in the Texas Hill Country, and the last thing anyone wants to see is more heavy rain. Unfortunately, it will be returning to the forecast this weekend. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-11 182503-1752280069424.png"></p><p>Flood Watches have been issued across much of Oklahoma, West Texas, and the High Plains of New Mexico in anticipation of heavy rains on the way. These watches will be in effect through Sunday. </p><p></p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/moretxrain-1752280152376.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><p>One of the main factors will be an incoming cold front that stalls out and remains draped across the area. This boundary will be the focus for repeated showers and thunderstorm development. Instability and a very moist atmosphere could lead to high-end rainfall rates. </p><p></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-11 182600-1752280297545.png"></p><p>Our in-house model currently shows the heaviest of the rains falling across the Trans-Pecos region, with another bullseye across the Red River and into Oklahoma. Please note that forecasting exactly where the heaviest of the rains is extremely difficult, and anyone in the Flood Watch should remain prepared, especially in flood-prone areas. A slight shift in the location of the front would mean changes in where the heaviest of the rain would fall.</p><p></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-11 182513-1752280455165.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-11 182521-1752280465418.png"></p><p>On top of the flooding threat, a severe thunderstorm threat will also remain throughout the weekend. Saturday's risk will be highest from the Trans-Pecos up through the Permian Basin. Damaging straight-line winds will be the primary hazard.</p>

Jesse Kelley

Heavy Rain Returns to Texas This Weekend

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<p style="margin: 0in; margin-bottom: .0001pt;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; color: #454545;">Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a></span></p>

Rob Bradley

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<p style="text-align: justify">While the Atlantic appears quiet, conditions can change quickly as waters continue to warm as we inch closer to the peak of hurricane season in mid-September.<br><br>The National Hurricane Center doesn't have any areas to watch around North America <em>this week</em>, but toward the 2nd/3rd week of July, there will be potential for some tropical development in the Gulf. The CPC (Climate Prediction Center) is highlighting the northern Gulf for this development from July 16th-22nd, though confidence is low.</p><h1>Forecast Factors</h1><p>Why is the northern Gulf being highlighted for development in the middle of July? Models favor upper-level troughing to develop over the region toward the middle of the week, which is likely to spur lift and heavy rain.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 072740-1752155310312.png">At the surface, winds could converge around several boundaries that have the potential to form. This is a process similar to conditions that created Tropical Storm Chantal, which moved onshore in the Carolinas on the July 4th weekend, spurring significant flooding in North Carolina.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 072747-1752155317870.png">Warm water is a necessary ingredient for tropical formation, and temperatures in the Gulf are plenty warm to fuel tropical systems. Typically, sea-surface temperatures in the upper 70s are needed for tropical cyclone development.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 081036-1752156680423.png">Water temperatures tend to warm more quickly early in the season in the Gulf and western Atlantic. This is more often where we see early-season development.</p><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 072757-1752155325910.png">Updated CSU Outlook</h1><p>Colorado State University updated its seasonal forecast on Wednesday, July 9th.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 081155-1752156752337.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 081242-1752156788535.png"></p>

Medium Range Tropics Forecast Favors Gulf, CSU Updates Seasonal Forecast

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<p>Friday was another busy day with severe weather and flash flooding. A Flash Flood Emergency was issued for Davenport, IA after they picked up over six plus inches of rain. The winds from Friday's storms were over 70 plus mph!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752289754425.png"></p><h1>Timing</h1><p>Friday's leftover storms will be the catalyst for additional shower and thunderstorm development across parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Saturday!</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/New Baron Video 3-1752289900092.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><h1></h1><h1><strong>SATURDAY</strong></h1><p>As the front continues to move, strong thunderstorms may redevelop early Saturday over the central High Plains. Behind the front, a high-pressure system ushering in cooler, drier air from western Canada will settle over the northern High Plains, bringing a temporary break from the stormy conditions. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-11 090638-1752246418286.png">With multiple rounds of storms, flooding will be of some concern, with a few inches of rain likely. The tough thing about uncertainty in severe forecasting is that it brings uncertain rainfall amounts. This is a look at what the Weather Prediction Center is thinking. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752289935301.png"></p><p>As we continue to iron out the details, check back with us if you have any interests around the Plains states.</p>

Elevated Tornado Risk Targets the Midwest Friday

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<p>Moisture is moving back into the Central and Southern tier of the Rockies and Plains states, bringing flood chances back to the forecast, including Texas this weekend.</p><p><br>A low-pressure system will ride around a ridge of high pressure, increasing wind shear in the region, which will help to organize a few severe thunderstorms with severe weather outlooks in place through Saturday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752288995001.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2-1752289019357.png"></p><h1>Flood Potential</h1><p>Heavy rain will return with thunderstorms, particularly between I-20 and I-40 where flood potential will be elevated. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752289058167.png"></p><h1>Forecast / Timing</h1><p>Saturday, we will see more scattered showers and storms closer to the cold front in SE Colorado, New Mexico, and Oklahoma.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/New Baron Video 3-1752289521345.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Tune into the central regional forecast :30 past the hour for the latest updates.</p>

Storms Return From the Front Range to Texas

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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<p><strong>TEXAS</strong> - Catastrophic flooding devastated portions of the Texas Hill Country on July 4, 2025, resulting in the tragic loss of more than 120 lives, according to FEMA.</p><h4>The following is a timeline of key events leading up to and during this deadly flash flood, compiled from the Department of Homeland Security and other official sources:</h4><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1941987740406460582" src="https://x.com/DHSgov/status/1941987740406460582"></div><h2>Wednesday July 2</h2><p>The Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM) activated <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://tdem.texas.gov/press-release/7-2-25"><strong>emergency response resources</strong></a> in Central Texas in anticipation of heavy rainfall and flash flooding.</p><h2>Thursday July 3</h2><p>TDEM increased its readiness level and mobilized additional <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://tdem.texas.gov/press-release/7-3-25"><strong>emergency state response</strong></a> resources for Central and West Texas as the flood threat intensified heading into the holiday weekend.</p><p>Morning:</p><ul><li><p>The National Weather Service (NWS) in Austin/San Antonio conducted a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EWX&amp;issuedby=EWX&amp;product=AFD&amp;format=CI&amp;version=32&amp;glossary=1"><strong>forecast briefing</strong></a> with emergency management officials, emphasizing the risk of flash flooding.</p></li><li><p>The National Water Center issued a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weather.gov/owp/operations-national-fho-archive-multi?d=2025-07-03T06:55:06&amp;e=2025-07-03T06:55:06"><strong>Flood Hazard Outlook</strong></a> identifying flash flood potential for Kerrville and surrounding areas.</p></li></ul><p>1:13 PM: NWS Austin/San Antonio issued a <strong>Flood Watch</strong> for Kerr County, effective through Friday morning.</p><p>6:10 PM: Weather Prediction Center (WPC) released the first of <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archives/metwatch/mpd_archive_days.php?mpddate=07/03/2025&amp;seldate=20250703">three Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions</a> (MPD #0580, #0581, #0582), warning of excessive rainfall and flash flood potential.</p><p><img src="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/images/mcd0582.gif"></p><p>6:22 PM: National Water Center issued an <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd-archive-multi?d=2025-07-05T06:50:36">alert </a>for "considerable flooding risk" north and west of San Antonio, including Kerrville.</p><p><img src="https://www.weather.gov/images/owp/AHD/Archive/AHD_2025-07-05T06:50:36.png"></p><p>11:41 PM: The first <strong>Flash Flood Warning</strong> was issued for Bandera County.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1940994392094875676" src="https://x.com/NWSFlashFlood/status/1940994392094875676"></div><h2>Friday July 4</h2><p>1:14 AM:<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/NWSFlashFlood/status/1941017778992926804"> <strong>Flash Flood Warnings</strong> </a>with "considerable damage" tags were issued for Bandera and Kerr Counties, triggering Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEAs) and NOAA Weather Radio notifications.</p><p>4:03 AM: <strong>Flash Flood Warning</strong> is upgraded to a <strong>Flash Flood Emergency </strong>for south-central Kerr County, including Hunt.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1941060338822033425" src="https://x.com/NWSFlashFlood/status/1941060338822033425"></div><p>4:35 AM: Kerr County Sheriff's Office reports flooding at the low water crossing, over three hours after the initial 1:14 AM warning.</p><p>4:35 AM: A US Geological Survey (USGS) gauge on the Guadalupe River recorded a river level of 29.5 feet.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-09 155734-1752108463877.png">5:10 AM: National Water Center <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd-archive?d=2025-07-04">warned</a> of "widespread, considerable, and catastrophic flooding."</p><p><img src="https://www.weather.gov/images/owp/AHD/Archive/AHD_2025-07-04T06:15:36.png">5:34 AM: <strong>Flash Flood Emergency</strong> is issued for the Guadalupe River, signaling a "large and deadly flood wave."</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1941083202749161589" src="https://x.com/NWSFlashFlood/status/1941083202749161589"></div><p>5:45 AM - A USGS gauge recorded the Guadalupe River at 34.29 feet - an extreme and life-threatening level.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-09 163021-1752108484878.png">The rest of the day brought devastation to communities throughout the region.</p><p>9:00 PM - Governor Greg Abbott issued a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-statement-on-hill-country-flooding-"><strong>formal statement </strong></a>and signed a disaster declaration for the impacted areas.</p><div class="fb-post" data-href="https://www.facebook.com/TexasGovernor/posts/1268547011592046?ref=embed_post" data-width="500" src="https://www.facebook.com/TexasGovernor/posts/1268547011592046?ref=embed_post" style="display: flex; justify-content: center"></div><p></p><p>For more on the unfolding aftermath and how to support those affected, visit: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/ways-to-help-texas-flood-victims#google_vignette"><strong>Ways to Help Texas Flood Victims</strong>.</a></p>

Elevated Tornado Risk Targets the Midwest Friday

Storms Return From the Front Range to Texas

Timeline: How Catastrophic Flooding Unfolded in Texas Hill Country

Heavy Rain Returns to Texas This Weekend

Medium Range Tropics Forecast Favors Gulf, CSU Updates Seasonal Forecast

Elevated Tornado Risk Targets the Midwest Friday

Storms Return From the Front Range to Texas

Timeline: How Catastrophic Flooding Unfolded in Texas Hill Country

Heavy Rain Returns to Texas This Weekend

Medium Range Tropics Forecast Favors Gulf, CSU Updates Seasonal Forecast

Elevated Tornado Risk Targets the Midwest Friday

Storms Return From the Front Range to Texas

Timeline: How Catastrophic Flooding Unfolded in Texas Hill Country