Kevin Schneider

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After weeks of hot and mostly dry weather, the Southwest is beginning its transition into the annual North American Monsoon Season. A shift in the overall weather pattern is allowing deeper moisture to move north from the Pacific and Gulf, setting the stage for a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms across parts of Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah, southern Colorado, and Nevada.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-12 101202-1783872731462.png">The North American monsoon is a seasonal wind shift that occurs each summer, transporting moisture from the eastern Pacific Ocean and Gulf of California into the Desert Southwest. As the moist air combines with intense daytime heating and mountainous terrain, thunderstorms become much more common during the afternoon and evening hours.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-11 074047-1783777256375.png">The first surge of monsoonal moisture is expected to increase storm coverage through the coming days. While many of these storms will produce beneficial rainfall for areas experiencing drought, they will also be capable of dropping heavy rain over a short period of time. Because the Southwest’s dry soils do not absorb water efficiently, runoff can develop quickly, creating a heightened risk of flash flooding in washes, slot canyons and other low-lying locations.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/2026-07-12 06-14-51-1783858518113.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Recently burned areas will be particularly susceptible to flooding and debris flows. Vegetation lost to wildfires leaves hillsides unable to absorb rainfall, allowing water, mud, and rocks to move rapidly downhill during intense thunderstorms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-12 061320-1783858409508.jpg">The arrival of the monsoon may provide some relief from the persistent heat that has gripped the region in recent weeks. Increased cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms can help lower daytime temperatures, although conditions will remain warm and humid compared to the typically dry desert climate.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-12 061401-1783858450467.jpg">As the monsoon continues to strengthen through July, residents and visitors across the Southwest should be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions each afternoon. Even storms that last only a short time can produce dangerous flash flooding, making it important to avoid flooded roadways and never enter fast-moving water.

Jackie Brown

Monsoon Moisture Returns to the Southwest, Increasing Storm and Flash Flood Potential

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Life-threatening flash flooding developed overnight Thursday into Friday in Missouri to the SSW of St. Louis. Parts of Iron and Reynolds counties recorded upwards of 6-12 inches of rain, leading to water surging into homes and businesses. This resulted in numerous water rescues by emergency personnel, over 90 in fact, but the great news is everyone has been accounted for! With that being said, more rain and storms will continue over the next few days. <div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2075552085597429997" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2075552085597429997"></div> With all of that heavy rain, the rivers rose very quickly, leading to catastrophic river flooding like that of the Black River. In Annapolis, MO, the Black River crested at a new record high of 28.73 feet on Friday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/PIC 3-1783811279974.jpg"><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/VO_071026_RNC_LESTERVILLE,MO_INSANE VIDEO OF OF CATASTROPHIC FLOODING IN LESTERVILLE_FB_MS_E071026-1783735634947.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Forecast</h1>Heavy rain and storms will continue to slowly follow the frontal boundary south through Sunday into early next week. Scattered flash flooding is expected Sunday with a few severe storms as well.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-12 054812-1783860159253.png">Severe storms are possible each day, with damaging winds expected as the primary hazard, but large hail and an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/GJFKF-1783883842106.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Several inches of rain will be possible. With the grounds very saturated, it will not take much to cause more flooding. So remember, TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-12 054932-1783860168753.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1783649521082.png">

Flooding Rain, Severe Storms Continue to Track Across the South

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Hazy skies will be hovering over portions of the Gulf and the Southeastern United States through this weekend, possibly extending into next week! Why so hazy? Saharan dust will be sent flying over the region at times, thick enough to make a difference in the color of the sun and potentially to air quality. Expect some of the thickest dust to hover over Florida this weekend (forecast below).<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/2026-07-12 10-08-04-1783872508845.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>This is not unusual for this time of year. Outbreaks of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) typically occur in the Atlantic during the summer months as strong westerly waves move off of Africa, sending dust out over the Atlantic. Depending on the speed and intensity of the SAL outbreak, these plumes of dry, dusty air can reach parts of the U.S. at times, even the middle of the country!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 083614-1783521420831.png"><h1>Heat</h1>Hot and humid conditions will persist in the Southeast while the Saharan Air moves through. While the SAL does dry out the mid-levels of the atmosphere, the bottom 5,000 feet is typically unaffected, meaning humidity won't change much even though there may be fewer storms. Record heat occurred in Florida and North Carolina with highs in the 90s and 100s. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-12 100911-1783872570726.png">These are dangerous heat index values, especially over 100°. Consider avoiding strenuous activity during the middle of the day, take many breaks in the shade or air conditioning, and drink plenty of water! High temperatures will remain in the lower to middle 90s for the next few afternoons. Some scattered storms will do the trick to cool the temperatures off.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1783821859623.png">

Saharan Dust, Excessive Heat Impact the Southeast

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After several stormy days to end the previous week, high pressure is starting to take control of the Midwest and Northeast. As this ridge of high pressure remains wedged in the middle of the country, the jet stream energy will cut around the ridge down the East Coast. THis could bring rounds of storms to the region from the middle to end of the week.<h1>Heat</h1>Temperatures will warm quickly through the mid-week time frame, with highs in the upper 90s for some areas. Numerous record highs will be challenged with some cities warming up further on Wednesday. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-12 084341-1783867533666.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-12 084345-1783867548300.png">These temperatures are 10-20 degrees above the average for this time of year and will be accompanied by some humidity, meaning temperatures will feel warmer than the numbers shown. Avoid strenuous activity during these afternoons and drink plenty of water.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-12 084407-1783867533665.png"><h1>Storms</h1>A cold front cutting down the Atlantic Coast could keep up some rain and possibly stronger storms, as jet stream energy will be strong aloft.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-12 084439-1783868326182.png">The SPC has issued an outlook for scattered severe storms on Tuesday for parts of New England, but timing and placement of storms still needs to be fine tuned, so be sure to check back in on this forecast.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-12 084422-1783868498122.png">Forecast models have been picking up on a line of strong storms, favoring Maine for some of the higher activity. All modes of severe weather are possible with this set-up, including a few tornadoes.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/2026-07-12 08-44-54-1783868556582.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Record Heat Returns To the Northeast, Storms Possible

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Several rounds of severe weather have been rolling off the Front Range into the Great Plains this week! A mid-level trough sparked severe weather Friday afternoon, bringing damaging winds and hail. At the Denver International Airport, wind gusted up to 72 mph.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1783736213990.png"><h1>FRIDAY:</h1>Damaging winds will be the primary threat along the Front Range and east into the Plains. Large hail is possible as well.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-10 063841-1783687129662.png"><h2>Timing</h2>Storms continue to push eastward into the Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas for the late hours. Storms should fizzle out by daybreak Saturday morning.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/BARON 5-1783736334233.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>A few locations could get hit a couple of times by thunderstorms this week, which means that some areas may see some locally heavier rainfall totals. Keep an eye on flood alerts in your area. With repeated rounds of storms, you may be at risk for flash flooding.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-10 064026-1783687247364.png">Flash flooding will be possible for many areas, though it will be more likely for some than others. Areas in dark green in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook (below) will have better chance to see scattered flash flooding incidents.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1783736373460.png">For more on this active forecast, be sure to join us on WeatherNation!

Saharan Dust, Excessive Heat Impact the Southeast

Record Heat Returns To the Northeast, Storms Possible

Another Day of Storms for the Plains & Front Range

Monsoon Moisture Returns to the Southwest, Increasing Storm and Flash Flood Potential

Flooding Rain, Severe Storms Continue to Track Across the South

Saharan Dust, Excessive Heat Impact the Southeast

Record Heat Returns To the Northeast, Storms Possible

Another Day of Storms for the Plains & Front Range

Monsoon Moisture Returns to the Southwest, Increasing Storm and Flash Flood Potential

Flooding Rain, Severe Storms Continue to Track Across the South

Saharan Dust, Excessive Heat Impact the Southeast

Record Heat Returns To the Northeast, Storms Possible

Another Day of Storms for the Plains & Front Range