Kevin Schneider

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September 10th marked the climatological peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season, so where is the activity? This was only the 9th time since 1950 when there were no active storms. That is 75 years! Several factors contribute to this season being extremely quiet. For one, it has been scorched, and there is wind shear, and less storm development off the coast of Africa.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/W2bhqfX0B0A" start="0"></iframe></div>As for now, the Atlantic Basin remains quiet for the short term. However, NHC is still watching a tropical wave off of the coast of Africa. If this does not end up getting named, this would be only the 2nd time (1992) since record keeping in 1950 with no Atlantic named storm activity between Aug 29 and Sept. 16. Meanwhile, in the next few days, a massive plume of Saharan dust is expected to move into the Atlantic, reducing chances for thunderstorms to organize.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-13 051130-1757761896893.jpg"><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/New Baron Video 3-1757731261606.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The Climate Prediction Center shows several regions in the next few weeks with low to medium confidence of development in the middle of the month, favoring some waves exiting off the coast of Africa. Given how this season has played out so far with those waves, we'll wait and see!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/web1-1757683999818.png">Do not let your guard down. September is historically the peak of hurricane season, and ocean conditions remain favorable for additional development. However, the NHC urges residents along the Atlantic basin to monitor updates closely.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-13 051253-1757761983394.jpg">What is slightly concerning are the water temperatures in the Gulf. Right now, they are 1°C warmer than they usually are for this time of the year. That being said, it's been tough to get anything over those warm waters so far this season-let's hope that continues. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-13 051452-1757762098585.jpg">As always, preparedness is key. Whether or not this particular system develops into a named storm, it serves as a reminder that the Atlantic remains active and that the window for tropical threats is far from closed. Tune into WeatherNation TV for the latest updates.

Monitoring Another Tropical Wave in the Atlantic

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Surprisingly, this isn't about football. Or at least not how you would think.<h1>OMEGA BLOCK</h1>In meteorology, the dog wags the tail, not the other way around. Meaning the upper levels have more influence on the day-to-day weather. When we look at the upper atmosphere, an important shape forms: the Greek letter omega! An Omega Block is a type of stagnant flow that isn't in a hurry to change.READ MORE: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/what-is-an-omega-block">What is an Omega Block?</a><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-11 095812-1757606300377.png"><h1>WHAT DOES THIS MEAN</h1>The two dips in the overall flow will harbor low pressure: one on each side of the lower 48. That will keep the stormy skies nearby and for the East Coast, the cooler weather as well! But what about anyone under the high? Here comes some late Summer heat! This flies in the face of what September has been so far. Just about the ENTIRE month has been at or below!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-13 051647-1757762219022.jpg">Temperatures will climb over the weekend, eventually entering record territory in places like St. Louis.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-13 051715-1757762244347.jpg"><h1>I'M HERE FOR FOOTBALL</h1>Well, here's your tie-in: football practices could become a little more dangerous over the coming week. This might become a theme throughout September, despite the comfortable start we got off to. The Climate Prediction Center is leaning toward above-average temperatures well into September.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-11 100752-1757606949368.png">

Blocking Pattern Warms Up the Midsection

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Dave Holder

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A strong upper-level trough along with monsoonal moisture advecting northward continues to hone in on southwestern Colorado and northwestern New Mexico. Both a flood threat and isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible. A Flood Watch has been issued for parts of Utah, New Mexico, and Colorado through Saturday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-12 171918-1757719165612.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/1-1757730818205.png">The latest model data suggest that the heaviest rain will be focused over parts of the San Juan Mountains, with some heavy rain also expected across parts of Eastern New Mexico and West Texas.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/nmtxsevere-1757719298114.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>With upper-level support, some thunderstorms may become organized with a severe threat. Straight-line damaging winds would be the main hazard through the weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-12 172235-1757719361345.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-12 172321-1757719415516.png">Hints of winter are also in the forecast! Models are indicating that snowfall will occur on the higher elevations of the San Juan Mountains and the Front Range.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/1-1757730864491.png">

Jesse Kelley

Heavy Rain and Thunderstorms Forecasted Across the Four Corners

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Brittany Lockley

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CENTRAL U.S - A trough pushing in from the west will be responsible for a few strong to possibly severe storms now through the weekend across the high Plains to the north-central U.S. The SPC has issued a Slight (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe storms from Montana into the Dakotas.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/1-1757730220066.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/1-1757730343687.png">For the overnight, the best chance of storms will be across parts of the Dakotas and Montana. These same areas can expect more storms Saturday and Sunday as the threat moves more eastward!<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/New Baron Video 3-1757730494093.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Some of these temperatures will be really heating up into the 90s! That's upwards of 10+ degrees above normal.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/1-1757730531400.png">A flood risk may be there across the northern Plains, with rainfall totals in some localized areas capable of flooding. For more on the Colorado and Four Corners region of these storm chances, read this related article: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/heavy-rain-and-thunderstorms-forecasted-across-colorado-and-new-mexico">Heavy Rain and Thunderstorms Forecasted Across Colorado and New Mexico.</a>Tune into WeatherNation for the latest.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/1-1757730570752.png">

Northern Rockies to Northern Plains Storms

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Meteorologist Jesse Kelley is excited to join the talented staff at Weather Nation. Jesse spent most of his childhood in Birmingham, Alabama. The state of Alabama is prone to seeing various types of weather from severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and winter weather. For college, Jesse attended the University of South Alabama where he received his degree in Broadcast Meteorology along with minors in Math and Geography. From Alabama, Jesse started his broadcast television working three years at KAVU-TV in Victoria. Recently, he finished a stint in Shreveport, LA. Jesse and his wife are looking forward to making the Rocky Mountains and Colorado home. If you would like to follow me, you can follow me on Twitter @JesseKelleywx and on Facebook at Meteorologist Jesse Kelley.

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The hits just keep on coming in the Eastern Pacific basin. While Kiko gave us something to monitor and made a close call with the Hawaiian Islands, our next system has a better chance of impacting a landmass.<h1>FORECAST</h1>As of Friday morning, Tropical Storm Mario was named in the Eastern Pacific near Acapulco, Mexico. The forecast keeps this storm south of Cabo San Lucas but we will keep an eye on it. With recent updates from the National Hurricane Center, potential hurricane development is becoming less of a possibility.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/1-1757714664687.png"><h1>WHAT WE DON'T KNOW</h1>Will any of the moisture get siphoned off, like Lorena's did? The general idea of a track helps, but long-range modeling doesn't. Typically, you need a trough to swing in just north of the system to either pull it ashore, or pull the moisture off the top. That doesn't appear to happen, as the system looks like it could just drift northward before eventually dissipating.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/1-1757714752944.png">

Heavy Rain and Thunderstorms Forecasted Across the Four Corners

Northern Rockies to Northern Plains Storms

Eastern Pacific: Mario Forms Along Mexico Coast

Monitoring Another Tropical Wave in the Atlantic

Blocking Pattern Warms Up the Midsection

Heavy Rain and Thunderstorms Forecasted Across the Four Corners

Northern Rockies to Northern Plains Storms

Eastern Pacific: Mario Forms Along Mexico Coast

Monitoring Another Tropical Wave in the Atlantic

Blocking Pattern Warms Up the Midsection

Heavy Rain and Thunderstorms Forecasted Across the Four Corners

Northern Rockies to Northern Plains Storms

Eastern Pacific: Mario Forms Along Mexico Coast