Kevin Schneider

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<p>In the Atlantic basin, we are keeping a very close eye on the Eastern Gulf. In the Pacific, Elida continues to churn amongst two other areas with potential to develop.</p><h1>Atlantic</h1><p><strong>TROPICAL STORM BERTHA </strong>has formed in the Gulf/ Atlantic. Tropical Storm Watches are in place from Florida to Louisiana, and storm surge watches are in place as well. Dangerous storm surge will be possible along the coast. Tropical storm-force winds and conditions will be possible in the next 24 hours.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/BERTHA 2-1784592479823.png"></p><p></p><p>There are <strong>Tropical Storm Watches</strong> in effect along the Florida Panhandle and into the Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana coastline with the potential of tropical storm conditions as this system strengthens.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 155715-1784584639589.png">The biggest threat to watch for along the coast is storm surge. <strong>Peak storm surge </strong>could reach 2-4ft for portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 155735-1784584694818.png"></p><p>There is a lot of dry air around, which should keep a pretty firm lid on what becomes of this tropical cyclone. The expectation is that whatever develops will drift westward, potentially making landfall as far west as Texas or Louisiana. A lot will depend on where the circulation fully develops, so there is considerable uncertainty. At this point anyone along the Gulf Coast should be paying attention to this system. Below is the intensity model forecast. The center blue line is what is anticipated by the National Hurricane Center. Most models indicate a strengthening to tropical storm strength but keep the storm below hurricane strength.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 155828-1784584712149.png">The forecast cone is pretty compressed, but it's important to note that the National Hurricane Center keeps this system over water by Wednesday morning. That should give Tropical Depression Two a chance to strengthen a bit.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/07202-1784584752107.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Pacific</h1><h2>ELIDA</h2><p><strong>Elida</strong> had its last advisory issued on Monday morning, but the remnants of this system could bring high surf and waves to the southern California Coast. High Surf Alerts have been issued through tomorrow.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 134316-1784576617794.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 155935-1784584781833.png"></p><p>There are a few other areas we are monitoring in the Eastern Pacific. <strong>Tropical Storm Fausto </strong>has officially formed, along with another area behind Fausto that has a medium chance of tropical development in the next 7 days.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 155950-1784584796708.png"></p><p>Fausto is expected to strengthen to a hurricane this week as it moves westward. Way too soon to tell if it's going to have any effect on the Hawaiian islands.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 160027-1784584832577.png"></p>

Jackie Brown

Tropics: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms In the Atlantic,  Eastern Pacific Active

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<p>Another cold front is dropping east and will plow into warm and humid air. That will be the focus for severe chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. This comes only a few days after storms raged through the area to kick off the weekend.</p><p></p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2078640402845114541" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2078640402845114541?s=20"></div><p>As the heat continues to build, any storms that enters will tap into that energy. Tuesday, the Storm Prediction Center has already issued an <strong>Enhanced</strong> risk for severe weather (above). All modes of severe storms look to be on the table, including a few tornadoes. Damaging winds will be the most widespread issue, however.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 133654-1784576236770.png">Timing will favor the afternoon and evening, but a few storms could maintain their severity overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/07-19_rne bams tue wed-1784487949634.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>The SPC has also issued a risk for Wednesday for severe thunderstorms. The safest bet will be in the Mid-Atlantic states, but even New England might pick up a severe storm or two Wednesday.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 121605-1784571369357.png">A growing concern is the amount of rainfall coming down after record amounts in the northeast. With multiple opportunities for storms, some could see too much too fast, leading to a flooding threat as well. Look at where the bull's eye is showing up on the most recent model run. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 071420-1784553272553.png">The Philadelphia area has also now been put under a flood watch in anticipation of this rainfall.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 160450-1784585097511.png">While it's not a daunting as Sunday's model output, they're still point to more than enough to cause problems.</p>

Another Round of Storms Targets the Northeast

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Originally born in Spokane, Washington,  Jackie's Dad was in the Air Force which led her to a life of travel. She has lived in Wichita, Okinawa, Japan, Baltimore, New Jersey, Indiana and South Carolina.  After graduating from Kadena High School, in Okinawa Japan, she got a full basketball scholarship to Coppin State College. On the court she was a 4-year starter and reached over 1000 points in her basketball career. She was also named Athlete of the Year for the whole university in 2002. Off the court, she earned a degree in Broadcast Production/English.

After college, she landed a job as a radio personality. Jackie went on to have a successful career for 12 years working at KXLY broadcast center. While on the radio, she decided to change career. Jackie went back to school, graduating from the Mississippi State Meteorology Broadcast Program. From snow, to tornadoes, to hurricanes, she has had experience forecasting all these events.

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<p>The upper-level low train continues to keep the weather pattern active for the Midwest. As this system moved through today, strong storms developed, bringing damaging winds, large hail, and tornado warnings.</p><h1>Severe Outlook</h1><p>Overnight, we have a slight risk for strong storms from the Midwest to the Great Lakes. The biggest concern will be damaging winds, but large hail and a few tornadoes are also possible.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/enhannfff-1784599474298.png">Some storms could be packing a significant punch. Hen-egg sized hail and hurricane-force wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. Some storms will have a chance to see large tracking tornadoes.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/fjfjfjfjfsss-1784599821708.png"></p><h1>Forecast Timing</h1><p>Overnight, as the frontal boundary moves to the south/east, storms will continue to ride along it. Any storm that develops through the overnight will have the capability to be strong to severe.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/fprecccsss-1784599734885.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><p>More on your Central Regional Forecast can be found :30 past the hour on WeatherNation.</p>

Another Round of Severe Weather for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes

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<p>A slow-moving front has one more day's worth of storms in it before departing. A marginal risk is in place through the overnight hours for strong to severe storms in North Carolina. </p><h1>Timing</h1><p> Although most storms die down, anything that develops will have the potential to be strong to severe. Things will taper off through the overnight hours. </p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/fjfjfss-1784600635320.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><p>An excessive rainfall outlook is at a level 2, <strong>SLIGHT,</strong> risk across North Carolina and Virginia overnight. Some parts of the Tar Heel State can see additional inches of rain.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 071846-1784553537100.png"></p>

Severe Storm Threat Continues for North Carolina

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<p>Wildfires burning in Northwestern Ontario, Canada, and northern Minnesota have been producing smoke, and upper-level winds in the atmosphere have been carrying that smoke into the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Northeast. Air quality has improved, but another mild push of smoke is moving through the region today ahead of another front. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-19 064723-1784458061933.png">Air quality is still poor enough to lead to air quality alerts today, but there is some hope on the horizon. Another front is dropping through, which should bring some rain, but most importantly, this rain could clear out some of the wildfire smoke. However, there is also the risk that is draws in more wildfire smoke. Our models have the outcome of conditions clearing.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/smoke and cat precip-1784576988880.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Alerts remain in place across the Great Lakes region and Midwest.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 134842-1784576951816.png"></p><h1><strong><span style="color: black">How Smoke from Wildfires Can Impact Breathing</span></strong></h1><div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GIU_Kz5gPzI" start="0"></iframe></div><p>“We know that air pollution in general can really trigger a number of health issues, including simple things that we think about like asthma or COPD, but they can actually also trigger cardiovascular events. And smoke from wildfires is no exception,” said Samuel Gurevich, MD, pulmonologist at Cleveland Clinic. “They actually put into the air a lot of what we call particulate matter, which are these very, very fine particles of dust and other organic matter that then can easily be breathed in and can irritate the airways or even be absorbed into the bloodstream.”</p><p>Dr. Gurevich said other groups that could be affected by the wildfire smoke include children with hard to control asthma, women who are pregnant, and people with pre-existing heart conditions.</p><p>So, what can they do to help stay safe? He recommends checking the air quality for your city before going out for the day. That information can be found online or within many weather apps. If the air quality is bad, it’s best to stay inside.</p><div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/42cqyxmedcE" start="0"></iframe></div><p>“Make sure your windows are closed and your air conditioning is on. HEPA filters do a reasonably good job, as well, if you have access to that. Those are all those things you should be prepared with. And if you do already have a diagnosis of a respiratory illness like asthma, COPD, or emphysema, have a rescue plan in place,” he said.</p><p>Dr. Gurevich said if you do have to go outside, try to make it as quick as possible. You could also wear an N95 mask. Anyone experiencing shortness of breath or worsening symptoms should seek medical attention right away.&nbsp;</p><p></p>

Alana Cameron

Air Quality Improvements in the Forecast

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Brittany Lockley

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<p style="text-align: start"><span style="color: inherit">The monsoon has returned to the southwestern United States. This shift in the overall weather pattern is allowing deeper moisture to move north from the Pacific and Gulf, setting the stage for a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms across parts of Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah, southern Colorado, and Nevada.</span></p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2076713264898363668" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2076713264898363668"></div><p style="text-align: start"><span style="color: inherit">The North American monsoon is a seasonal wind shift that occurs each summer, transporting moisture from the eastern Pacific Ocean and Gulf of California into the Desert Southwest. As the moist air combines with intense daytime heating and mountainous terrain, thunderstorms become much more common during the afternoon and evening hours.</span></p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/FORECAST-1784415308949.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p style="text-align: start"><span style="color: inherit">This surge of monsoonal moisture is expected to increase storm coverage through the coming days. While many of these storms will produce beneficial rainfall for areas experiencing drought, they will also be capable of dropping heavy rain over a short period of time. Because the Southwest’s dry soils do not absorb water efficiently, runoff can develop quickly, creating a heightened risk of flash flooding in washes, slot canyons, and other low-lying locations.</span></p><p style="text-align: start"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-18 064529-1784371545620.png"></p><p style="text-align: start"><span style="color: inherit">As the monsoon continues to strengthen through July, residents and visitors across the Southwest should be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions each afternoon. Even short-lived storms can produce dangerous flash flooding, making it important to avoid flooded roadways and never enter fast-moving water.</span></p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/BARON 5-1784425522678.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Jesse Kelley

Monsoon Moisture Brings Weekend Flood Threat

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<p><strong>TEXAS HILL COUNTRY - </strong>Life-threatening flooding has been hitting portions of the Edwards Plateau and Texas Hill Country the last several days, amounting to rainfall totals around 2 feet for the region.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2077800429061320714" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2077800429061320714"></div><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1784327638898.png"></p><p>The result of this flooding has caused rivers to crest at major flood stage, including the Cibolo Creek in Boerne on Wednesday, which reached a record crest at 22.63 feet. The previous highest was 19.83 feet in May 2015. <br><br>Thursday morning saw a huge jump on the Guadalupe River at Comfort, the same gauge that jumped over 30 feet in an hour on July 4th, 2025. It crested higher in 2026 than in 2025, reaching 37.08', as flash flood emergencies were issued again for Kerrville and the Guadalupe.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-16 114810-1784224123095.png"><br><br></p><h2>What's causing all the rain?</h2><p>A moisture-rich weather pattern has brought multiple rounds of thunderstorms over many of the same locations. The unsettled pattern has been fueled by a persistent flow of tropical moisture from the Gulf, combined with weak steering currents in the atmosphere. Because winds aloft are relatively light, thunderstorms will move slowly and may repeatedly track over the same areas. This process, <em>known as training</em>, can produce excessive rainfall totals in a short period of time and quickly overwhelm creeks, rivers, and drainage systems.<span style="color: rgb(36, 36, 36)">&nbsp;</span></p><div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6rhkLNupAVQ" start="0"></iframe></div><h3>Who is most vulnerable?</h3><p>Some of the greatest concerns remain focused on the Texas Hill Country, where steep terrain and fast-responding waterways make the region especially susceptible to flash flooding. Even a few hours of intense rainfall can cause water levels to rise rapidly, creating dangerous conditions for motorists and residents near streams and low-water crossings. Locations that have already received recent rainfall will be more vulnerable because saturated soils have a reduced ability to absorb additional water.<span style="color: rgb(36, 36, 36)">&nbsp;</span></p><h2>Forecast, Alerts, and Outlooks</h2><p><strong>Flood Watches</strong> will expire this evening across Texas. However, scattered storms are in the forecast for tonight and for Saturday. Thankfully, the flood risk will decrease for the weekend. However, the grounds in Texas are so saturated and it will not take much from pop shower or storm to cause some flooding issues even if it is minor. It is important to remember TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1784327892697.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1784327916378.png"></p><p>As the flooding threat is ending, the heat is expected to ramp up heading into next week. Something to keep in mind as residents continue to clean up after the catastrophic flooding. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1784328009272.png"></p><p></p><p>For more info on this forecast, you can tune into the Central Regional Forecast at :30 past the hour.</p>

Patrick Crawford

After Historic Flooding, Flood Risk Moves West Saturday

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Tropics: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms In the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific Active

In the Atlantic basin, we are keeping a very

Another Round of Storms Targets the Northeast

Another cold front is dropping east and will

Another Round of Severe Weather for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes

The upper-level low train continues to keep t

Severe Storm Threat Continues for North Carolina

A slow-moving front has one more day's worth

Air Quality Improvements in the Forecast

Wildfires burning in Northwestern Ontario, Ca

Monsoon Moisture Brings Weekend Flood Threat

The monsoon has returned to the southwestern

After Historic Flooding, Flood Risk Moves West Saturday

TEXAS HILL COUNTRY - Life-threatening floodin