Dave Holder

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As a powerful upper-level trough moves into the central states this weekend, strong jet stream winds will overpread moderate instability. A cold front pushing through will likely initiate thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-02 172209-1759447671418.png">The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an area from northeastern Colorado up through northern Minnesota where a few severe thunderstorms will be possible as the front moves through. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/bams3k90-1759447758114.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>With a similar setup on Sunday, thunderstorms again seem likely, with the possibility of a few severe ones. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-02 172601-1759447844534.png">The cold front will be moving across an area that will have been feeling record-breaking heat, helping to increase the instability. On the other side of the front, temperatures will plummet! Check out Sunday's forecasted temperatures across the Northern Plains. After pushing into the low 90s on Friday, Rapid City, SD, will not warm out of the 50s by Sunday!

Severe Thunderstorms Possible Across the Plains This Weekend

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Tracey Anthony

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WEST - As a trough of low pressure lingers off the west coast, a few fronts have pushed into the western U.S and across the Intermountain West. Our forecast models indicate scattered rain moving into states such as Idaho, Nevada, and Utah through the end of the week, with higher elevations expected to receive some snowfall.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/New Baron Video 3-1759446371895.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Due to their high moisture content, these showers will be more efficient at producing rainfall, resulting in higher totals. Some areas could pick up a few inches of rainfall, which could bring on a low-end flooding threat. Excessive rainfall outlooks issued for the are Thursday and Friday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web2-1759402402070.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1759446725038.png">Not all the precipitation may fall as rain! Longer range models are spitting out decent snow totals across the Cascades and the Sawtooth Ranges of central Idaho! Winter Storm Watches have been issued for parts of Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming for the weekend!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1759446825312.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1759446905616.png">More details on your Western Regional Forecast can always be found :50 past the hour on WeatherNation.

Jesse Kelley

Precipitation Chances Out West

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Meteorologist Jesse Kelley is excited to join the talented staff at Weather Nation. Jesse spent most of his childhood in Birmingham, Alabama. The state of Alabama is prone to seeing various types of weather from severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and winter weather. For college, Jesse attended the University of South Alabama where he received his degree in Broadcast Meteorology along with minors in Math and Geography. From Alabama, Jesse started his broadcast television working three years at KAVU-TV in Victoria. Recently, he finished a stint in Shreveport, LA. Jesse and his wife are looking forward to making the Rocky Mountains and Colorado home. If you would like to follow me, you can follow me on Twitter @JesseKelleywx and on Facebook at Meteorologist Jesse Kelley.

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Thanks to Humberto, Imelda has moved away from Florida and will bring impacts to Bermuda. In the coming days, we are monitoring an area of low pressure to develop under the big high pressure ridge across the Northeast and Upper Midwest. As a result, deep tropical moisture returns to Florida and the Atlantic and produce showers and thunderstorms. The onshore pattern of the winds will bring daily chances of thunderstorms.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/New Baron Video 3-1759445037137.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video> This, coupled with a potential developing low out in the Bahamas, is likely to bring heavy downpours to the east coast of Florida. An excess of tropical moisture left behind by Imelda and Humberto, will do the state of Florida no favors.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-02 05-38-25-1759405125315.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>This influx of tropical moisture will farm enough energy for these thunderstorms to tap into. As a result, over the next five days, the forecast calls for about 3-5 inches of rain with isolated heavier totals along the Atlantic Coast sea board. Some flooding will be possible with the ground pretty saturated as of late.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web1-1759404851198.png">As for that low out in the Bahamas, the National Hurricane Center has given this system low chances for some tropical development over the next 2-7 days. Regardless of any further development, we're still likely to see coastal impacts and heavy rain throughout this weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web3-1759405370000.png">

Heavy Rain Chances Return to Florida

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Imelda is now a Post-Tropical Cyclone as it quickly moves east-northeast, away from Bermuda. That means it is no longer getting it's energy from tropical processes. According to the National Hurricane Center: "Visible satellite images and global model fields indicate that a front extends into the center of the cyclone from the east-northeast, while another frontal feature has developed to the south of the cyclone." Fronts are consistent with extra-tropical cyclones. It still remains strong with winds at category one strength, however.KEY MESSAGES:<ul><li>Imelda is weakening as it moves through the Atlantic</li><li>Imelda pushed past Bermuda overnight. Tropical alerts have been cancelled.</li><li>Swells and high surf from Imelda are expected to impact the U.S. East Coast over the next several days</li></ul><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-02 091030-1759417846055.png"><h1>Coastal Flood Potential</h1>Life-threatening rip currents remain possible, as well as coastal flooding with inundation of 2 to 3 feet above ground level. This flooding can move inland, impacting homes and businesses. Dangerous swim conditions will also be a concern. Please listen to local authorities and avoid swimming if possible, as rip currents can be deadly.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/web7-1759424627017.png"><h1>Waves &amp; Rip Currents</h1>The coastline from Florida to North Carolina is highlighted for high surf. Some wave heights could reach up to 11 feet.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-01 130354-1759345444733.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-02 091224-1759417958503.png">A high threat for rip currents remains likely over the next few days. Check the flags at the beaches to make sure conditions are safe enough where you are if you're planning to get into the water.<h2>What's Next For the Atlantic</h2>The NHC is monitoring another tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic that is expected to move off the coast of Africa in the next day or two. There is currently a low chance of tropical formation.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web 10-1759400620555.png">

Post-Tropical Imelda has Passed Bermuda

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Kevin Schneider

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Tropical Storm Octave formed earlier on Tuesday in the Eastern Pacific. This remains a tropical storm and is forecast to meander off to the west.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1759444502747.png">The good news with Octave is that the NHC has good confidence it will likely stay out to sea. The NHC's latest update has Octave remaining at tropical storm strength. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1759444612585.png">Right behind Octave, we have one more wave trying to form sometime later this week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/web3-1759424820709.png">The next name up on the Pacific hurricane season names list is Priscilla.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/web3-1759251694412.png">Reminder that we're getting over the final secondary peak of the Pacific hurricane season. It's important to continue to stay updated all the way throughout!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-29 154651-1759182418223.png">Stay tuned on WeatherNation for the latest!

Tropical Storm Octave Spinning in the Pacific

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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Grab the pumpkin spice and apple cider donuts, fall foliage has been developing quickly across the United States, with more color this week dropping into the middle latitudes! The latest forecast from <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.explorefall.com/fall-foliage-map">Explore Fall</a> (top of page) shows peak color emerging across the higher elevations of the Colorado Rockies, and the Beartooth and Wind River Ranges in Wyoming over the next seven days (September 30 - October 6). <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-29 203511-1759199719401.png">Color has quickly developed and already peaked for regions in the dark orange and red shades above (orange to red areas), much of it across the Rockies and Cascades. The Upper-Midwest and northern New England/New York are also experiencing some peak color!<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1970624217776607589" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1970624217776607589"></div>The most 30 days before the appearance of fall color are the most important for vibrancy during the peak season, but drought conditions can also lead to more muted color or variable conditions.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 105237-1757350392233.png">For great fall color, sunny days with cool, crisp nights are preferable. Rain is welcome at times, however, to keep the trees from drying out.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 105303-1757350398827.png">Ever wonder which trees produce certain colors? Check out the handy identification guide for foliage below!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-21 041320-1758449873768.png">

Fall Color Is Peaking in Parts of the Lower 48

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Tropical activity in the Atlantic has increased significantly over the last week. We're now tracking two named storms, Imelda and Humberto. On Saturday, Humberto reached Category 5 status, with sustained winds topping out at 160 mph! Since then, it has backed off to 80 mph winds, making it a category 1 storm.<h1>LOOKING BACK</h1>Humberto was named a week ago, last Wednesday afternoon, and gained hurricane status early Friday morning. This is the first time in nearly 100 years that we have had 2 Category 5 hurricanes in back-to-back seasons!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-30 203358-1759286043566.png">We are now past the climatological peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season, but still have a ways to go for the season. For being such a quiet season, the normal amount of Accumulated Cyclone Energy, a metric to quantify activity, is not far off. Two category 5 hurricanes will boost those numbers, though.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-01 091802-1759331890905.png">September is historically the peak of hurricane season, and ocean conditions remain favorable for additional development. However, the NHC urges residents along the Atlantic basin to monitor updates closely.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/W2bhqfX0B0A" start="0"></iframe></div>As always, preparedness is key. Whether or not this particular system develops into a named storm, it serves as a reminder that the Atlantic remains active and that the window for tropical threats is far from closed. Tune into WeatherNation TV for the latest updates.

Humberto Merges with a Front in the Atlantic

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Conditions are improving in California after a dangerous situation evolved earlier this week as extremely dry conditions and offshore winds fueled explosive fire growth in Malibu. Light rain is in the forecast on Thursday with onshore flow continuing into the weekend. These conditions will hopefully allow firefighters to contain the fire and allow residents to return home.Related Article: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/particularly-dangerous-situation-developing-in-southern-california">Fire Concerns Continue in California</a><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/12/Screenshot 2024-12-12 081035-1734016246969.png">Monday night, a spark ignited close to Malibu, quickly growing into thousands of acres burned in the Franklin Fire. Road closures and mandatory evacuations remain in effect as of Thursday morning. Nearby shelters for those evacuating include Palisades Recreation Center and Santa Monica Unified School District. The fire is over 4,000 acres but has started to see some containment.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/12/Screenshot 2024-12-13 064828-1734097740562.png">Flames have been surrounding Pepperdine University in Malibu, with some students seeing flames from campus! Those students at Pepperdine had been told to shelter in place.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1866437712162787812" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1866437712162787812"></div>The Pacific Coast Highway has been closed for many locations aside from those evacuating.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1866425100117151886" src="https://x.com/CaltransDist7/status/1866425100117151886"></div>

Some Containment on the Franklin Fire in Malibu, CA

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