Kevin Schneider

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As the Atlantic hurricane season enters its final stretch,&nbsp;a new tropical storm has been named in the central Atlantic Ocean. Melissa, which is moving westward at around 15 to 20 mph, has drawn attention from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) due to its likely impacts in the Caribbean in the short term. Melissa is battling some dry air and moderate wind shear, two factors that often limit tropical development. By mid- to late week, as it continues westward, the system will encounter more humid air and slightly weaker upper-level winds. That is when long-range models&nbsp;indicate there is a better chance for gradual organization.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-21 105312-1761065652818.png">The latest forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center illustrates the chaos.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-21 09-16-57-1761059845899.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Sea surface temperatures remain warm across much of the Atlantic basin, providing ample fuel if the wave can find a pocket of lower shear and increased moisture. As this wave closes in on the Leeward Islands, little to no development is expected. However, heavy rain and breezy conditions will move through the island chain. What happens after that? Only time will tell.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 044010-1760697624879.png"><h1>The Uncertainty</h1>The tricky part of this forecast is figuring out where Melissa will be and WHAT it will be by the end of the weekend. That's how long it will take to start to move substantially. Why? Right now, Melissa is parked between two different areas of high pressure. Those are playing a tug-of-war style game for the right to steer Melissa.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-21 091604-1761059776451.png">As many of our recently back-loaded tropical seasons have reminded us: October is not the month to let your guard down.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 103336-1760546429287.png">Tune into WeatherNation for the top weather headlines for more on the tropics.

Tropical Storm Melissa Named in the Caribbean

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An area of low pressure that's looking for it way is sitting and spinning off of the coast of California. As it gets kicked inland later this week, it's going to bring the unsettled weather with it. It will bring some beneficial rain and snow to parts of the southwest, including California and Colorado. A few inches of snow will be possible in the Sierra Nevada mountains as well as the western slope of the Colorado Rockies. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-21 071341-1761052447908.png">However, it's where that system ends up by the weekend that is raising some eyebrows. As this system emerges out of the Rockies, it will be moving into notably warmer temperatures, which could be just enough to power storms into the severe threshold. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-21 071527-1761052563825.png">But will this system have enough ingredients to talk about another weekend severe weather event? The Storm Prediction Center is already highlighting areas of the panhandle of Texas and western Oklahoma for a low-end threat by Thursday<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-21 071713-1761052641260.png">However, getting beyond four and five days out can be a little murky. Right now, this feels like a repeat of last weekend's storms, with all modes on the table. One thing we are starting to firmly grasp is the rainfall amounts will add up!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-21 071908-1761052783499.png">With multiple rounds of storms expected, flash flooding will need to be monitored, especially in eastern Oklahoma and east Texas. Here's a first look at what storms could look like Thursday through Saturday<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-21 07-20-27-1761052878793.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>There is loads of time for all of this to change, but start thinking about where the end of the week is going to take you. Do you have high school football game plans or trunk or treating? Those could be impacted by some of these potential storms.

Cut-Off Low Brings Severe Weather Threat Back

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

Alana Cameron

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NORTHWEST - As we head through the work week, we'll have some dry time Tuesday and Wednesday before our next frontal boundary takes aim at the Pacific Northwest on Thursday. Models have a couple of heavy plumes of rain, the first on Thursday and the second on Friday in the Pacific Northwest.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-21 04-15-29-1761041749001.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>According to the National Weather Service, this next event will be considered another "atmospheric river" because of the richness of the moisture being funneled in from the Pacific. On the AR (atmospheric river) forecast scale, we'll be between an AR2 and an AR3 along the West Coasts of Oregon and Washington State.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web2-1761041791714.png">Based on the AR scale, an AR3 is a balance of both beneficial and hazardous.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 164231-1760913773685.png">We spoke with the National Weather Service about total precipitation totals, and here's what they had to say about that.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/SOT_TRT_0.46_THIS FAR OUT WE CAN STILL EXPECT MULTIPLE INCHES OF RAIN IN WESTERN WASHINGTON_BD_E101925-1760913519296.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The Weather Prediction Center has been forecasting rainfall totals of a couple of inches as well, and our in-house forecast models show the snowfall totals in the higher elevations receiving several inches too.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web5-1761041823049.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web1-1761041886161.png">Be sure to join us LIVE on WeatherNation for the latest forecast!

Adrian Hernandez

Another Atmospheric River Late Week

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The trough responsible for the storms along the East Coast on Sunday will be followed by another similar system. The threat of strong winds returning will have Halloween decorations shaking again as this system moves through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1979751863043113082" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1979751863043113082"></div>The one main difference: this front doesn't look like it has enough moisture to fire up a lot of storms. But there will be rain...<h1>WIND</h1>We're going in order of impact, with this system being the wind maker that will have any foliage howling. Gusts could top 40 mph through the Upper Midwest, with 20-30 mph gusts around the Great Lakes on Tuesday and Wednesday. In case you didn't learn your lesson with this trough's predecessor, secure the Halloween decorations. It won't clean out all of the foliage in these areas, but the days of enjoying the leaves are starting to get limited.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-21 04-09-32-1761041399038.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Wind alerts, including high wind alerts, have been issued for the High Plains through Tuesday for winds of 40 mph and gusts upwards of 60 mph.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web1-1761041458089.png"><h1>TEMPS</h1>Aside from the wind (and projectile leaves), the refreshing cooldown will get you in the Fall mood if your neighbor's inflatable pumpkin doesn't. Temperatures in some places, like Minneapolis, will go from nearing 60 to struggling to get out of the 40s.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-21 04-11-12-1761041499503.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>RAIN</h1>Who's ready for the lake effect machine? Well, it's starting this week...sorta. Lake-enhanced showers will make an appearance with this system on Tuesday and Wednesday, but it's the same principle. Cold air moving over a relatively warmer body of water and VOILA! It's just not cold enough for snow. We'll get there, especially if the lakes struggle to freeze over again like they did last Winter.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-21 04-13-25-1761041636746.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h3>Wanna see how your Winter is shaping up? <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/noaa-releases-outlook-for-winter-25-26">NOAA's Winter Outlook</a></h3>

Next System Blows Even More Leaves Out Of Trees

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Ready for another La Niña winter? NOAA quietly released it's outlook for the upcoming winter season on Thursday, sans press conference since the government shutdown continues. The press conference has been rescheduled to November but the outlook is still ready for us to digest. As a reminder, these outlooks are for the overall three month pattern and do not serve to predict seasonal snowfall totals or bursts of cold/warmth that are likely to impact areas highlighted with the seemingly opposite outlook. The National Weather Service released the following video showcasing the newly released outlooks for temperature, precipitation, and drought from December through February.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1978839667907744157" src="https://x.com/NWS/status/1978839667907744157"></div><h1>Temperature</h1>Above average temperatures are favored across the southern tier of the United States, while below average temperatures are favored across the Upper-Midwest and Northwest. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065848-1760706897085.png"><h1>Precipitation</h1> As the jetstream is likely to remain more active across the northern tier of the country, allowing for cooler air, it should also allow for more storms to track through these areas. As such, above average precipitation is favored from the Northwest through the Great Lakes, while drier than average conditions are expected from Southern California through Florida and the Carolinas. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065852-1760706026499.png"><h1>Influences</h1>In case you missed it, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/la-nina-advisory-issued-how-this-could-affect-the-winter-season">a La Niña Advisory was issued last week</a> as these conditions were observed in the equatorial Pacific west of South America. La Niña is expected to persist through winter, which is one of the primary reasons the winter outlook favors the areas it does. La Niña patterns vary greatly from year to year, depending on the strength of La Niña and the phase of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). The graphic below shows the typical pattern of the Pacific and Polar jets during a La Niña winter, which usher in cooler and wet air masses. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065856-1760707324994.png">There is lower confidence that La Niña continues through the late winter and early spring (graphic below), which could throw a wrench in the seasonal forecast. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 073303-1760707994646.png">ENSO (El Niño &amp; southern Osciallation) neutral conditions have a less obvious pattern influence, but wetter conditions can develop farther south than during La Niña. What's the takeaway? Be prepared for anything this winter! We'll always keep you up to date on air and online.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 073307-1760708002217.png">

Jackie Brown

NOAA Releases Outlook for Winter 25-26'

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October has been relatively quiet in terms of severe weather. That all came to an end Saturday as storms rumbled through the Central and Southern Plains. A few storms actually produced severe weather reports, some of which were classified as tornadoes.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 155805-1760911139185.png">The National Weather Service in Little Rock, Arkansas, confirmed an EF-1 tornado was found in Hot Spring County from Saturday's storms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 155304-1760911134206.png"><h1>Forecast Timing</h1>Now, the front is aiming for the northeastern U.S. One thing we've noticed is the lack of lightning with these thunderstorms, but the winds have been howling along the front. Through Monday morning, the severe weather threat continues into New England, for cities such as Boston, MA.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-19_rne bams3k overnight-1760926909056.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Severe Outlook</h1>As for severe weather, not much is expected behind this front. The SPC only calling for general thunderstorms in the forecast for some of the coastal northeast cities.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web4-1760955877378.png"> With regards to rainfall, the northeast is not totally out of the woods yet. We still have a marginal (level 1 out of 4) risk for excessive rain.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web7-1760956041292.png"> The Storm Prediction Center's tornado outlook is low, but non-zero, for cities including Baltimore, New York, and Philadelphia. It may not be until early Monday morning before the front actually moves through.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 201910-1760926771887.png">In fact, on Sunday night, a tornado warning happened just south of the D.C. area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 201521-1760926794802.png"><h1>Total Accumulation</h1>The severe storms will also be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding. A few locations could see an inch or two, which could lead to some localized areas of flooding. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web7-1760956184805.png">Tune into WeatherNation TV for the latest details.

Strong Fall Front Fires Up Severe Chances Through Monday Morning

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A ridge of high pressure has been responsible for the quiet and warm days across the central U.S., but on the western periphery of this ridge, a trough will attempt to slide in and ignite severe weather chances across the High Plains. The storms that are steered between these two upper-level systems are what we often refer to as "ridge-riding" thunderstorms.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-16 05-09-22-1760612987566.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>On Thursday, another MARGINAL (level 1 out of 5) risk is issued as the cold front shifts down into eastern Colorado and western Kansas, even extending all the way into central Nebraska. All kinds of severe weather are possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760669659768.png">There is a small risk of tornadoes in the latest SPC advisory for Thursday. It covers cities from North Platte, NE, over to Colby, KS and as far south as Cheyenne Wells, CO. Make sure you have a way of getting notified if anything is to touch down.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760640961225.png">The cold front keeps pushing east into Missouri and Oklahoma for Friday. Similar to Thursday, severe potential will exist during the heating of the day but some storms could remain strong even after sunset! The biggest threat will be damaging winds.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/New Baron Video 3-1760669791973.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Forecasted rainfall totals look to be highest across central Nebraska, where some may receive 1-1.5" of rainfall with isolated higher amounts.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760669880981.png">Be sure to join us at :30 past the hour to see how this will impact your temperature forecast, too!

Jesse Kelley

Ridge Riding Thunderstorms in the Western Plains

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Parts of the Great Basin and Northern Rockies could see some strong to severe storms today.  Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary weather threats.

Severe Outlook

 <img class="alignnone wp-image-95818 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/08/7day2-7.jpg" alt="Strong Storms Possible for the Great Basin and Northern Rockies Wednesday" width="1920" height="1080" />

There is a Marginal Risk of severe weather over Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Colorado and western Kansas throughout Tuesday.  This means that isolated severe storms will be possible.

Severe Risks

<img class="alignnone wp-image-95819 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/08/7day3-8.jpg" alt="Strong Storms Possible for the Great Basin and Northern Rockies Wednesday" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-95820 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/08/7day4-7.jpg" alt="Strong Storms Possible for the Great Basin and Northern Rockies Wednesday" width="1920" height="1080" />

Here is a check of the severe weather risks for later today. A 5% chance for large hail and damaging winds.

Forecast

<img class="alignnone wp-image-95821 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/08/bad-6.jpg" alt="Strong Storms Possible for the Great Basin and Northern Rockies Wednesday" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-95822 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/08/brqaed-5.jpg" alt="Strong Storms Possible for the Great Basin and Northern Rockies Wednesday" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-95823 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/08/Capture-16.jpg" alt="Strong Storms Possible for the Great Basin and Northern Rockies Wednesday" width="1920" height="1080" />

Showers and storms will be the story all morning and through the afternoon.  The highest chance of severe weather will be during the afternoon and evening hours.

Keep checking <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/">WeatherNation</a> for the very latest updates.