Kevin Schneider

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CENTRAL U.S - A trough that came in from the Pacific, moved over the Rockies, and is now stuck in the Plains has been responsible for severe storms across the High Plains. It's now pushing into the Central Plains, ushering a slow-moving cold front through the area. Related: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/north-dakota-breaks-yearly-tornado-record">Dakota Tornado Record Falls Over the Weekend</a>The front is moving southward, bringing the threat of more hailstones and damaging winds, with an outside chance of a tornado. Storms will continue to blossom in coverage through the overnight hours. The SPC has issued a SLIGHT (level 2 out of 5) and MARGINAL (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe weather into early Thursday morning. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 191815-1758158301143.png"><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/storms-1758158400483.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The severe risk along this front continues through tomorrow as well. The SPC has issued a MARGINAL (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe storms across portions of Missouri, Oklahoma, Iowa, Arkansas, and Kansas.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 133903-1758138244278.png">Farther north, the flooding threat will be one to contend with. Over the next few days, multiple rain chances could overwhelm already saturated grounds. We have seen flooding across portions of the Northern Plains, and this threat will continue through this week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 192042-1758158454292.png">Always use caution with flood waters, as you never know how deep the water is. Turn Around, Don't Drown.

Dave Holder

Storms Slide Down the Plains

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Grab the pumpkin spice and apple cider donuts, fall foliage has started to grace some areas across the United States, with more developing this week! The latest forecast from <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.explorefall.com/fall-foliage-map">Explore Fall</a> (top of page) shows peak color emerging across the higher elevations of the Colorado Rockies, and the Beartooth and Wind River Ranges in Wyoming over the next seven days (September 15th - 21st). <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 190824-1758158004265.png">Color has already been showing some for areas in the map above (yellow areas), mostly in the Rockies and Cascades. In fact, we've seen the Bigtooth Maples change quite a bit in the Wasatch Mountains near Salt Lake City!<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1964055938010067402" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1964055938010067402"></div>The most 30 days before the appearance of fall color are the most important for vibrancy during the peak season, but drought conditions can also lead to more muted color or variable conditions.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 105237-1757350392233.png">For great fall color, sunny days with cool, crisp nights are preferable. Though rain is welcome at times to keep the trees from drying out.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 105303-1757350398827.png">

Fall Color Starting To Show in Parts of the Lower 48

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While the Atlantic has been relatively quiet this season, the Eastern Pacific has been more active, particularly in recent months. Early Saturday morning, Mario dissipated southwest of the Baja Peninsula, only to reemerge Sunday morning as a tropical storm. One other tropical wave has a likely chance of developing over the next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 181853-1758154740163.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 184318-1757983404971.png"><h1>Bye Bye Mario</h1>Mario has once again weakened upon encountering cooler sea surface temperatures and enhanced shear. It became post-tropical once and for all Tuesday night. The leftover moisture from Mario is expected to drift north, landing in Southern California over the next few days with an attendant flooding threat. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/09-17 rsw moisture-1758154796882.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>It's more about where that moisture is heading: into southern California. Downtown LA hasn't seen rain since the beginning of JUNE!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 104048-1758127280118.png">The tropical nature of the rainfall could lead to some flooding, as the southern Central Valley out to the Colorado River, including much of southern California, is included in a Slight Risk (Level 2) Excessive Rainfall Outlook on Thursday. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 182011-1758154821142.png">

Eastern Pacific: Mario Fizzles, but Sends Moisture to California

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Meteorologist Jesse Kelley is excited to join the talented staff at Weather Nation. Jesse spent most of his childhood in Birmingham, Alabama. The state of Alabama is prone to seeing various types of weather from severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and winter weather. For college, Jesse attended the University of South Alabama where he received his degree in Broadcast Meteorology along with minors in Math and Geography. From Alabama, Jesse started his broadcast television working three years at KAVU-TV in Victoria. Recently, he finished a stint in Shreveport, LA. Jesse and his wife are looking forward to making the Rocky Mountains and Colorado home. If you would like to follow me, you can follow me on Twitter @JesseKelleywx and on Facebook at Meteorologist Jesse Kelley.

Jesse Kelley

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We are now a week after the climatological peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season. Conditions are slowly becoming more active in the Atlantic with three areas to monitor. First, Tropical Storm Gabrielle is in the Central Atlantic and it is likely to strengthen in the coming days as it gets very close to the island of Bermuda.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 182444-1758155115042.png">Next, we have two areas of low chances of development in the far Eastern Atlantic near Africa. Environmental conditions aren't great for the short term for either tropical wave because of Saharan dust. However, we will continue to keep an eye on these areas too.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 182508-1758155130975.png"><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/New Baron Video 3-1758140698761.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Do not let your guard down! September is historically the peak of hurricane season, and ocean conditions remain favorable for additional development. However, the NHC urges residents along the Atlantic basin to monitor updates closely.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/W2bhqfX0B0A" start="0"></iframe></div>What is slightly concerning are the water temperatures in the Gulf. Right now, they are 1°C warmer than they usually are for this time of the year. That being said, it's been tough to get anything over those warm waters so far this season-let's hope that continues.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-13 051452-1757762098585.jpg">As always, preparedness is key. Whether or not this particular system develops into a named storm, it serves as a reminder that the Atlantic remains active and that the window for tropical threats is far from closed. Tune into WeatherNation TV for the latest updates.

Alana Cameron

ATLANTIC: Gabrielle Forms in the Atlantic

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The dry time has been a little hard to enjoy the last week or two in South Florida. While this is the rainy season, and we're making up for a slow start to it, you can still roll your eyes at what the extended forecasts have looked like recently. In fact, some spots in South Florida have already had their wettest start to September, including Miami.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 163631-1758062210080.png">On the other end of the spectrum, some northern Florida spots have really missed out, making it the driest start to September in areas such as Gainesville and Tallahassee.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 163641-1758062216443.png">So why? Just because Florida likes to have the most fun? Well, actually, a frontal boundary keeps these storms coming for days. While we've had a couple of days of relief, more moisture is in the forecast for South Florida.That, along with a TON of moisture to work with, is attempting to catch up some drought-stricken areas of the Sunshine State. The Drought Monitor updated on Thursday and had some pretty sizeable improvements in South Florida.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/2025-09-11 09-39-57-1757605257541.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>So while it might be easy to complain about beach plans constantly getting ruined, it has its benefits. Our biggest concern is the lightning threat associated with any Florida thunderstorm, but especially this time of year, with people outdoors. Anytime it rains this heavily, of course, the flash flooding threat will be there as well. Some areas could receive another 3-5 inches, or even more, before the rain chances start to back off next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 182646-1758155212673.png">

Florida Rainfall: Nuisance or Beneficial?

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Did you see them? Many might have had better things to do this weekend but if you were paying attention to Space Weather, you got a treat! NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center upped the expectation late last night, with some dazzling results.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1967422118729273403" src="https://x.com/NWSSWPC/status/1967422118729273403"></div>The problem for many in the plains was cloud-cover, with evening storms making it difficult to see the lights behind the lightning, but some were lucky to sneak between the clouds.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 092335-1757950156965.png">Granted, it might have been difficult to see with the naked eye. Many of the photos we've seen have mentioned a long exposure that was needed to see the fun. Either way, it's gorgeous if you can figure it out.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 092324-1757950271340.png">While it wasn't the most robust solar storm we've seen in the past 2 years, it was well worth it for some! We're not expecting another show, however.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 134825-1757965711698.png">

Jackie Brown

Northern Lights Close Out the Weekend For Many

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A strong upper-level trough along with monsoonal moisture advecting northward continues to hone in on Western Colorado, SE Utah, and New Mexico. Both a flood threat and isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible. There are risks for excessive rainfall and flooding over the next few days. The risks are very isolated in the threat of flooding, but it is still something to pay attention to.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/09-14 rsc wpcs-1757878358375.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The Storm Prediction Center has the risk for strong storms stretching from North Dakota to Texas, but here we will discuss the threat for the southern Plains and Texas.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-14 133029-1757878277064.png">The latest model data suggest that the heaviest rain will be focused over parts of West Texas and the Central Plains as the disturbance keeps moving east. With upper-level support, some thunderstorms may become organized with a severe threat. Straight-line damaging winds would be the main hazard through the weekend but a few tornadoes are possible.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/09-14 rsc-1757878300010.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Stay with WeatherNation for the latest updates.

Severe Storms Look More Likely This Afternoon

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<h2>SEVERE OUTLOOK</h2>
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There is a severe weather chance throughout the state of Texas for today. A marginal to slight risk is in place which means isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible.

There is a 5 to 15 percent risk of damaging winds and hail for today, as well. This means winds over 58 mph and small hail could accompany these storms.

Rotation might also be spotted in these thunderstorms because there is a 2 percent risk of tornadoes.

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<h2>FORECAST</h2>
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Strong storms will start to fire off later this evening around 5 to 6 PM. They are looking to last overnight, as well. Make sure to have NOAA weather radios handy or alert volumes turned up high just in case warnings go off overnight.

Texas Severe Chance

SEVERE OUTLOOK

FORECAST

Storms Slide Down the Plains

CENTRAL U.S - A trough that came in from the

Fall Color Starting To Show in Parts of the Lower 48

Grab the pumpkin spice and apple cider donuts

Eastern Pacific: Mario Fizzles, but Sends Moisture to California

While the Atlantic has been relatively quiet

ATLANTIC: Gabrielle Forms in the Atlantic

We are now a week after the climatological pe

Florida Rainfall: Nuisance or Beneficial?

The dry time has been a little hard to enjoy

Northern Lights Close Out the Weekend For Many

Did you see them? Many might have had better

Severe Storms Look More Likely This Afternoon

A strong upper-level trough along with monsoo