Kevin Schneider

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Residents and visitors to the Southeast will have to watch more than fireworks this week as a low pressure system tries to develop toward the holiday weekend, possibly turning into a tropical system thereafter. Regardless of development, heavy rain and rough surf could pose hazards to the region by Friday or over the holiday weekend.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/2025-06-29 06-52-57-1751201668827.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>As a cold front drops south to end the week, it looks to stall in northern Florida, creating opposing surface winds over very warm Gulf waters. This situation can and has led to the quick development of tropical systems in the past.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-29 065311-1751201687581.png">The WPC is forecasting heavy rain around the Big Bend and Florida's Gulf Coast during the week ahead, which could cause flooding issues in addition to disrupting holiday plans.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-30 070559-1751288768403.png">Temperatures in the Gulf and Atlantic are well above the threshold for tropical development (78 degrees F) and are even 10 degrees warmer in the northern Gulf, where this system could develop by Friday or Saturday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-29 065804-1751201974529.png">The next name for an Atlantic system is Chantal. As always, we will keep you updated with the latest developments in the tropics.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-29 091803-1751210302668.png">

Jackie Brown

Hurricane Center Monitoring Florida for Tropical Development

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While the Eastern Pacific has made most of the headlines in the western hemisphere so far this hurricane season, activity in the Atlantic is starting to make some waves. After the quick formation and dissipation of Andrea in the central Atlantic last week, Tropical Storm Barry formed earlier Sunday morning before making landfall Sunday night.<h1>ATLANTIC</h1>Barry made landfall as a tropical depression 15 miles south-southeast of Tampico, Mexico, at 10:00 PM CDT on Sunday night with sustained winds of 35 mph and a central pressure of 1007 mb. Heavy rain and isolated flash flooding will be the main impacts of this system. As far as rainfall totals, Barry, or its remnants, is expected to produce rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with some areas seeing up to 10 inches. Tropical alerts have been discontinued by the government of Mexico.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-29 203609-1751251164837.png">Systems only get names if they reach tropical storm status (sustained winds over 39 mph) or higher. The next name up on the list in the Atlantic Basin is Chantal.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-29 090213-1751209339048.png">Although the Atlantic is off to a slow start, this is not unusual for June. Historically, tropical activity in the Atlantic does not typically ramp up until later in the summer, particularly in August and September, with the peak occurring around the 15th of September.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-29 104849-1748537876634.png">For now, the quiet beginning to the season is considered perfectly normal.&nbsp;The early season will more often see more tropical storms than hurricanes, but hurricanes can form and impact the United States, so it's <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/hurricane-prep-week-2025">always best to be prepared</a>.NOAA and Colorado State are expecting an above-average season in the Atlantic Basin. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/noaa-predicts-above-average-2025-hurricane-season">Click here to read more.</a><h1>EASTERN PACIFIC</h1>The 2025 Eastern Pacific hurricane season is off to a record-breaking start, with five named storms: Alvin, Barbara, Cosme, Dalila, and Erick. This level of early activity is well ahead of the seasonal average, which typically sees the first named storm by June 10, the second by June 24, and the third by July 6. Dalila forming on the 13th marked the fastest four storms to be named in the basin since record-keeping began, beating 1974, which saw Dolores form by June 14.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-22 205029-1750647070946.png">The Eastern Pacific stays active for the foreseeable future. Thunderstorm activity continues to get better organized, officially becoming Tropical Storm Flossie Sunday morning. This system is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday, with locally heavy rainfall possible across southwestern Mexico.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/tropiccccccs-1751322125076.png">With a close approach to the western coast, the Mexican government has posted Tropical Storm Warnings, including Manzanillo, where elevated winds could graze the coastline. When this system gets named, it will be Flossie.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-30 070856-1751288945313.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-29 204919-1751251777205.png">

Barry Makes Landfall, Watching Flossie Next

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Tracey Anthony

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Frontal systems have been crossing the northern tier of the country this week, spurring strong and severe storms as they progress from west to east. Several of these fronts have kicked up severe storms and heavy downpours on the East Coast. This pattern looks to continue through Tuesday as several boundaries move across the area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/last2-1751246596517.png"><h1>Severe Weather Outlooks</h1>Another storm system will begin moving into the region on Monday, possibly leading to a few more severe storms along its warm front. A marginal risk for severe storms has been issued from central Pennsylvania through the middle Atlantic.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-30 122542-1751307965565.png">As the cold front moves through on Tuesday, the severe storm risk becomes more widespread from Maine to South Carolina. The SPC has upgraded to a SLIGHT (level 2 out of 5) risk for portions of the DMV, PA, and NJ.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-30 122555-1751307974135.png"><h1>Forecast</h1>Storms have already begun, and it is active as the cold front moves through, and we can see storms persisting into the evening hours. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/JFJALSS-1751317205228.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Pockets of heavy rain will be possible, and therefore, flash flooding. Rainfall rates could top 2" per hour in some downpours.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-29 183448-1751243703928.png">

Severe Storms For the East Coast Through Tuesday

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Originally born in Spokane, Washington,  Jackie's Dad was in the Air Force which led her to a life of travel. She has lived in Wichita, Okinawa, Japan, Baltimore, New Jersey, Indiana and South Carolina.  After graduating from Kadena High School, in Okinawa Japan, she got a full basketball scholarship to Coppin State College. On the court she was a 4-year starter and reached over 1000 points in her basketball career. She was also named Athlete of the Year for the whole university in 2002. Off the court, she earned a degree in Broadcast Production/English.

After college, she landed a job as a radio personality. Jackie went on to have a successful career for 12 years working at KXLY broadcast center. While on the radio, she decided to change career. Jackie went back to school, graduating from the Mississippi State Meteorology Broadcast Program. From snow, to tornadoes, to hurricanes, she has had experience forecasting all these events.

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It has been an active, severe season across the Midwest! Multiple rounds of severe storms have been moving across the Midwest these last few days, with multiple tornadoes touching down on consecutive nights. The incredible stretch of severe weather has been adding up this month. We've seen 65% of our annual number of tornadoes in just one month!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-29 041823-1751192382023.jpg"><h1>Outlooks</h1>As a frontal boundary moves east, the threat shifts right along with it. Today we have the chance to see strong to severe storms. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any storms that do develop. There is also an excessive rainfall outlook across portions of the Midwest, meaning isolated flooding will be possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/midwest-1751302173055.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/toda-1751307151802.png"><h1>TIMING</h1>As the cold front moves eastward, it will be the trigger mechanism for additional thunderstorm development over the next couple of days! Damaging winds will be the primary concern. Heavy rain will be possible too.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/fdssss-1751307238646.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Make sure to tune into WeatherNation for all the latest updates.

Severe Weather Threat Continues in the Midwest

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Chris Tomer

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An upper-level ridge is building into the Desert Southwest. This feature will bring intense heat to portions of Arizona and southern California, particularly by Monday afternoon.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-29 205326-1751252027113.png">Extreme Heat Warnings have been issued for much of the Sonoran Desert, along with the bottom of the Grand Canyon! Places like Phoenix will threaten daily record high temperatures, especially on Monday and Tuesday.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Web 1-1751287935940.png">Forecast Highs</h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/tomer sw monday highs-1751309066937.jpg">Tuesday will be another scorcher with record/near-record highs.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/tomer sw tuesday highs-1751309105930.jpg">Heat Impacts</h1>Monday looks to be the hottest day, as several locations could top out at over 115°! Even though Phoenix is, of course, hot in the summertime, these are temperatures running 10 degrees above average. Even those who are experienced in hot climates may struggle to deal with this type of heat.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Web 3-1751288072942.png">Use caution if you plan to be outdoors in this kind of heat.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Web 4-1751288124920.png">Pacific Northwest Heat</h1>This heatwave will also reach the PNW with record/near-record highs.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-29 111737-1751217466843.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/tomer pnw mondays highs-1751227428892.jpg">The high heat remains in place on Tuesday then temps start "cooling" back to normal.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/tomer medford meteo -1751309237744.jpg">Stay with WeatherNation for the latest.

Extreme Heat Continues Out West

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AAA is expecting over 70 million travelers to take to the roads and skies over the Fourth of July Weekend. Unfortunately, heavy rainfall could throw a wrench into those plans, as slow-moving systems keep rain chances around.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-30 073837-1751290861562.png"><h1>WEDNESDAY</h1>A busy week of travel will kick off for many as early as Wednesday. If you're lucky enough to get off of work for the last two days of the week and stretch that weekend into 5 days, hopefully showers and storms aren't ruining the start.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-30 074546-1751291335006.png"><h1>THURSDAY</h1>Areas along the Front Range and Upper Midwest look like they'll have some storms to drive around, along with the southeast. Nothing's worse than driving the entirety of your trip through a constant rain, and that could be the case in the southeast.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-30 074603-1751291341398.png"><h1>FRIDAY</h1>Now for the big day. Assuming you make it to your destination dry (or even if you don't) the most important night to keep rain away is Friday. Of course, if you're going to a big show somewhere, it wouldn't hurt to know what the weather cancellation policy is ahead of time or if we're lighting these things off rain or not. Areas that might want to keep tabs on the forecast will be in the Upper Midwest and Southeast.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-30 074249-1751291259702.png"><h1>WEEKEND</h1>Everyone's least favorite part, unless you're tired of your guests, going home! This weekend we'll need to watch the timing of a front moving from the Midwest to the Northeast. That will bring the best shot at storms to these parts but it's too early to know exactly when to plan around the worst of the rain. By then we may have to watch the Gulf for some mischief...Related Article: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/hurricane-center-monitoring-florida-for-tropical-development">Hurricane Center Monitoring Florida for Tropical Development</a><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/2025-06-30 08-59-00-1751295581874.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Where Rain Could Dampen Holiday Travel Plans

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Brittany Lockley

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SOUTHEAST - Strong thunderstorms have developed over the Southeast over the last few days, causing tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. The upper-level "heat dome" that has been steering storms westward over the past few days is being replaced by an upper-level low. The lift associated with this feature will create thunderstorm development each afternoon with daytime heating. Northern Georgia and up through the Smokies remain under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms overnight. Other areas will continue to see general scattered showers and thunderstorms. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/seweekend-1751066384167.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-27 204012-1751078418946.png"><h2>Temperatures</h2>Although there hasn't been an area highlighted for potential severe weather this weekend, high heat and moisture will continue to fuel at least general thunderstorms. Here's a look at the forecasted heat index values for Saturday. Many locations will once again reach triple-digit heat indices.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-27 172304-1751066594625.png">Join us at :10 past the hour for more on your eastern regional forecast.

Dave Holder

Thunderstorms Possible in the Southeast Overnight

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A slow moving storm system extending across the Plains will bring a threat for flooding to the mid section of the nation. Flash Flood Watches extend from near Lake Superior to the Rio Grande River in Texas. More than 6" of rain may fall in some areas through the middle of the week.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-98174 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/10/ffw-2.png" alt="Flood Potential from the Upper Midwest to the Southern Plains" width="1651" height="928" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-98175 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/10/qpf-3.png" alt="Flood Potential from the Upper Midwest to the Southern Plains" width="1636" height="916" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-98176 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/10/excrain.png" alt="Flood Potential from the Upper Midwest to the Southern Plains" width="1638" height="898" />

A strong Jet Stream coupled with high humidity will aid in producing heavy rainfall. "Summer-like" Gulf of Mexico moisture and waves of energy riding along the Jet Stream will produce numerous showers and thunderstorms throughout the week.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-98177 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/10/fcstpattern.png" alt="Flood Potential from the Upper Midwest to the Southern Plains" width="1638" height="925" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-98178 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/10/trough.png" alt="Flood Potential from the Upper Midwest to the Southern Plains" width="1644" height="911" />

For <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/">WeatherNation</a>: Meteorologist Mace Michaels