The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active so far this hurricane season, and it shows no sign of slowing down. Meanwhile, the Atlantic remains mostly quiet, as wind shear continues to tear apart tropical waves moving off Africa.

Atlantic Basin

There is an area being monitored in the Atlantic Basin for a medium chance of tropical development. Right now, no deterministic models love this area, but plenty of AI models seem to. Worth watching, but again, not threatening unless you're going to Bermuda.

Current Activity: Pacific

Norbert formed last week several hundred miles south of the Baja Peninsula. Now post-tropical, the remnants of Norbert will continue to push west. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E looks to maintain it's tropical depression status, which means we might not get a name out of this system. If this was to change, however, the next name on the list will be Odalys. It's expected to continue its westward track with no impacts to land through the week. There is also another area of interest that has a low chance of development in the next week.

El Niño Fueling Pacific Activity

The surge in tropical activity comes as El Niño continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.

This year’s El Nino has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.