WeatherNation Meteorologists

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<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season">COURTESY: NOAA</a>The mark of 2024’s Atlantic Hurricane Season will be felt for years. But as communities across the southeast continue the rebuilding process, forecasters must look ahead to the upcoming season to help plan and prepare for what’s to come.&nbsp;Atlantic Hurricane season starts June 1 and runs through November. NOAA released their forecast for what to expect during that time, calling for a slightly above average season.NOAA anticipates between 13 - 19 named storms and 6 - 10 hurricanes. Of which, 3 - 5 are forecast to become major hurricanes, Category 3 or stronger.&nbsp;&nbsp;This year is expected to be above average thanks to warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic. Although we aren’t expecting the same extreme, record-breaking ocean heat from the last two years.&nbsp;While ENSO Neutral conditions are forecast to develop this summer, La Niña conditions that traditionally support tropical development could sneak back in by the fall. Despite uncertainty, forecasters feel that the lack of El Nino conditions is enough to warrant an active forecast.&nbsp;The forecast is aligned with that of Colorado State University which also calls for a slightly above average season.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-22 080020-1747922483300.png">As a reminder, these forecasts only account for the total number of storms, NOT potential paths or U.S. impacts. It only takes one storm to impact you and the time to prepare is now.<h1>CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK</h1><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-less-active-2025-central-pacific-hurricane-season">COURTESY: NOAA</a><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac">NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center</a> and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/">Climate Prediction Center</a> announced a 30% chance of below-normal tropical cyclone activity for the upcoming central Pacific Hurricane Season. The 2025 outlook also indicates a 50% chance of a near-normal hurricane season and a 20% chance that it will be above-normal.In terms of storm numbers, the forecast calls for 1-4 tropical cyclones across the central Pacific, which is located north of the equator between 140°W and the International Date Line. A near-normal season has 4 or 5 tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.The outlook is a guide to the overall seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the central Pacific basin and does not predict whether or how many of these systems will affect Hawaii.The central Pacific hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through November 30.“Even though this season is predicted to be less active, now is the time for residents and businesses to prepare for hurricane season,” said Chris Brenchley, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center director.&nbsp;Forecast and communication improvements this season<ul><li>NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/">National Hurricane Center</a> are extending forecasts a day earlier on the sustained hurricane-force wind field (74 miles per hour) from 48 to 72 hours.&nbsp;</li><li>New this year, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and National Hurricane Center <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.noaa.gov/understand-forecast-information">will be able to issue</a> potential tropical cyclone advisory products up to 72 hours before the anticipated arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds on land, giving communities more time to prepare. Storm surge is the water pushed onto shore by the winds swirling around a hurricane.</li><li>Beginning this year, the National Weather Service will provide storm surge flooding forecasts for the main Hawaiian Islands (Kauai County, Oahu, Maui County, and Hawaii County) so that county emergency managers can better warn coastal residents and businesses.</li></ul>For more on storm preparation, tropical conditions and alerts, stay with WeatherNation throughout the hurricane season.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Jesse Kelley

NOAA Predicts Above Average 2025 Hurricane Season

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

Alana Cameron

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The stretch of record heat continues in Texas, Louisiana, and Florida through Saturday. Highs stay in the 90s and low 100s.<h2>Texas</h2>Southern Texas has been scorching hot, with days of records over the past few days. Through the end of the week, many locations, including Austin, could still break record highs.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-22 140024-1747944031432.png">Forecast highs in San Antonio and Houston will again warm into the upper and mid-90s, respectively, by Friday afternoon. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-22 140141-1747944108061.png"><h2>Florida</h2>Records are likely to fall in Florida at the end of the week as well.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-22 140549-1747944354990.png">Temperatures throughout the weekend in Tampa are expected to reach the mid-90s, with heat index values even higher as humidity levels increase.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-22 140617-1747944385847.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-22 140720-1747944446155.png">How do you stay safe in this kind of heat? It is early in the season, so many of us are seeing this type of heat for the first time this year. In light of this forecast, residents are encouraged to take heat precautions seriously. With many communities still in spring mode, it’s important to be proactive, especially in areas without widespread air conditioning or heat preparedness infrastructure.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-13 074710-1747144046862.png">Tune into the local regional forecast on WeatherNation for more details.

Gulf Coast Heat Continues

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Brittany Lockley

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A coastal low is moving up the Northeast coast, bringing heavy rainfall to New England. Meanwhile, a low-pressure system back towards the West is keeping things unsettled throughout the weekend for the entire Northeast. Along the coast, there will be high winds and big waves to go along with the rainfall.This low-pressure system in the Eastern U.S. is also set to deliver an extended stretch of cool and rainy weather from the Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic regions. As this system lingers, residents across these areas can expect periods of steady rain, with some isolated thunderstorms developing, particularly in southern New England. While the risk of excessive rainfall remains marginal, localized downpours could still lead to minor flooding concerns in susceptible areas.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-21 070458-1747833243953.png"><h1>SETUP</h1>Beyond the rainfall, a stagnant upper-level low positioned over the Great Lakes and Northeast is ushering in an unseasonably cool air mass. Over the coming days, much of the Northern Plains, Midwest, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic will experience high temperatures ranging from the 50s to the low 60s. These temperatures represent a stark departure from seasonal norms, with temperatures running 20 to 35 degrees below average!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-22 141357-1747944846733.png">The dramatic cooldown may lead to widespread record-breaking low maximum temperatures over the next couple of days. From the Ohio Valley to the Atlantic Coast, cities and towns should brace for chilly days more typical of early spring or even late winter, rather than late May.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-22 141441-1747944888080.png"><h1>WINDS</h1>Wind gusts of 40–50 mph are expected across coastal Massachusetts through tonight. Secure loose objects and be prepared for possible tree damage.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/New Baron Video 3-1747970432990.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>RAIN</h1>A couple of inches are likely across much of the region, with the heaviest totals (up to 4 inches) expected across southern New England.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/1-1747970465795.png"><h1>POWER OUTAGES</h1>Saturated soils plus strong winds? That’s a recipe for scattered power outages. If you plan to use a generator, remember to run it at least 20 feet away from your home for safety.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-21 071756-1747833546570.png">

Unseasonably Cool and Wet Weather To Grip Northeastern U.S.

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RED RIVER VALLEY - After a very active start to the week, severe storm chances are back in the forecast for the Red River Valley, the Arklatex, and central Texas. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe storms on Thursday across these areas. This risk includes portions of the DFW Metroplex.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Day1SVR-1747953782037.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/1-1747969655334.png">Conditions are favorable for intense storms, with warm, humid air (upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints) and strong winds at different levels of the atmosphere. This setup could lead to supercell thunderstorms, which are capable of producing large to very large hail as well as a chance for a tornado. Strong to severe storms will continue across areas of Texas for a few more hours before weakening after midnight.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/New Baron Video 3-1747969832291.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>Friday - Saturday</h2>On Friday, moist air returns ahead of the next upper-level wave from the West. This will lead to thunderstorms in the southern Plains, some of which could turn strong to severe. The SPC has issued a Marginal and Slight Risks (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe storms on Friday and Saturday in Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. The risk for isolated storms extends to Georgia on Saturday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-22 142744-1747945777404.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-22 142752-1747945784384.png">Strong storms, including supercells with hail, are expected to form in the afternoon and evenings, in some cases persisting overnight.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/tx3-1747945892425.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video> There is a flooding risk with this weekend's storms as well. The WPC has issued SLIGHT (level 2 out of 5) risks for flash flooding across the Plains for Saturday and Sunday. On Saturday, flash flooding is possible in the Ozarks and north-central High Plains. On Sunday, a larger area from northeast Texas to the Mississippi Valley is at risk for heavy rain and flooding. More storms could develop in the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/2025-05-22 06-12-16-1747915952190.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>For the latest on this story, be sure to join us on WeatherNation!

Severe Weather Threat Across Texas and Oklahoma This Evening

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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While <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/Texas%20Takes%20the%20Lead%20In%20Hottest%20Temperatures%20Across%20the%20Country">record heat</a> has recently been impacting Florida residents, the upper-level ridge responsible for that heat has also kept cold fronts from pushing too far south. This is changing to end the week as the front helps organize strong storms that develop in the sea breeze each afternoon and evening.WHAT TO EXPECTThunderstorms are expected to develop across Central and South Florida over the next couple of afternoons, fueled by sea breeze and land breeze interactions, as well as abundant instability. Shear provided by the cold front could help storms organize to produce large hail and gusty winds.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/New Baron Video 3-1747969931614.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Friday</h1>The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area under a MARGINAL (level 1 out of 5) risk for Friday. This means isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible, along with heavy rain and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-22 141046-1747944696391.png">Tune into our Eastern Regional Forecast:10 past the hour every hour for the latest updates.

Stormy Conditions in Florida the Rest of the Week

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Kevin Schneider

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Hurricane Season has begun in the Eastern Pacific basin, right on schedule. The season officially kicked off on May 15, and just days in, we have our first area to monitor.An area off the western coast of Mexico (pictured above), an area of low pressure, could form this weekend or early next week. This development would be hundreds of miles south of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for a tropical depression to form around mid-next week.That said, take any long-range model output with a grain of salt. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season typically ramps up slowly, with activity peaking in mid-August and again in late September.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-20 073348-1747748094171.png">If this system were to strengthen and receive a name from the National Hurricane Center, Alvin would be first on the list in the Pacific.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-20 070214-1747748273874.png">

Chances of Development Increasing in the Pacific

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CALIFORNIA - The National Weather Service has issued a Heat Advisory through Thursday evening for southern California, including Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles counties. Temperatures in these regions are expected to reach up to 100°F, with some locations potentially breaking record highs.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-21 144703-1747860430549.png">Areas that are expected to experience the most intense heat are the San Fernando, San Gabriel, and Santa Clarita valleys, where high temperatures may climb to 90 to 100°F over the next couple of afternoons. Even areas along the coast may see unusually high temperatures.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-20 130312-1747768046979.png">Here's a look at our forecasted temperatures for the Thursday to Saturday timeframe in southern California, the Mohave Desert, and into Arizona.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-21 144837-1747860523568.png">In addition to the heat, there is an increased fire risk. The combination of hot temperatures, lower humidity, and higher winds has led to fire weather alerts for Thursday in the San Joaquin Valley.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-20 130305-1747768229498.png">This heat wave is expected to persist through Thursday, with some relief this weekend as temperatures are expected to moderate. For the latest updates on weather conditions and advisories, be sure to join us on WeatherNation.

Southern California: Heat Advisories in Effect

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Once hurricane, Tropical Storm Elsa made landfall on Wednesday morning about 65 miles north northwest of Cedar Key, Florida in Taylor County. For the latest information on the future impacts to the eastern seaboard: <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/news/elsa-wont-let-go-bears-down-on-the-southeast/">read more here.</a>

[embed]https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/1412795641370230784?s=20[/embed]
<h1>Landfall Stats</h1>
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<h1>Recap</h1>
<h2>Storm Surge</h2>
The highest storm surge reports were between 1-3 feet as Elsa made its way along the west coast of Florida. The highest surge was observed in Cedar Key, Florida with 2.68 foot surge.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-148784" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2021/07/07-07_elsa-storm-surge.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

Some of the visuals from the storm surge were seen in Cedar Key, miles away from the center of circulation of Tropical Storm Elsa.

[embed]https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/1412773404269113348?s=20[/embed]
<h2>Rainfall</h2>
Some of the highest rainfall reports from Elsa were up to nearly 1 foot of rain in Punta Gorda, Florida. Other observations along the west and Gulf coast got up to half  a foot to 11 inches.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-148834" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2021/07/07-07_elsa-highest-rain-totals.jpg" alt="" width="1915" height="1074" />

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-148836" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2021/07/07-07_elsa-rain-totals.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

Some of the heaviest rainfall reports were in the Florida Keys where Elsa brought rainfall rates up to 2-3 inches per hour at times.

[embed]https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/1412607301706452993?s=20[/embed]
<h2>Peak Wind Gusts</h2>
Some of the highest wind gusts were reported up to 70 mph in Key West. Tropical storm strength winds are anywhere between 39-74 mph as observed from these top locations in Florida and Georgia.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-148835" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2021/07/07-07_peak-wind-gusts.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1071" />

We will be tracking Elsa and have more updates on the way! Stay tuned to WeatherNation.

Tropical Storm Elsa Landfall + Recap

Landfall Stats

Recap

Storm Surge

Rainfall

Peak Wind Gusts

NOAA Predicts Above Average 2025 Hurricane Season

COURTESY: NOAAThe mark of 2024’s Atlantic Hur

Gulf Coast Heat Continues

The stretch of record heat continues in Texas

Unseasonably Cool and Wet Weather To Grip Northeastern U.S.

A coastal low is moving up the Northeast coas

Severe Weather Threat Across Texas and Oklahoma This Evening

RED RIVER VALLEY - After a very active start

Stormy Conditions in Florida the Rest of the Week

While record heat has recently been impacting

Chances of Development Increasing in the Pacific

Hurricane Season has begun in the Eastern Pac

Southern California: Heat Advisories in Effect

CALIFORNIA - The National Weather Service has