Tropics Update: Atlantic System Bears Watching as Pacific Development Becomes Likely

November is underway, but hurricane season isn’t over just yet. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring two areas of interest across the Atlantic and Pacific, including a disturbance that could become a tropical depression later this week.

While there are currently no active tropical cyclones in either basin, forecasters are keeping an eye on potential development over the next several days.

Atlantic: Possible Subtropical Development Northeast of the Bahamas

An area of low pressure is expected to form along a weakening frontal boundary a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas in the coming days.

According to the NHC, the system could gradually acquire subtropical characteristics late this week as it drifts over the western Atlantic.

However, the window for development appears limited. By the weekend, the system is expected to move eastward or northeastward into an environment less favorable for organization.

The NHC currently gives this system a 20% chance of development over the next seven days, with formation chances near zero during the next 48 hours.

At this time, no tropical cyclone has formed, and the system remains an area to monitor rather than an organized storm.

Pacific: Tropical Depression Likely Later This Week

The Pacific has a more promising setup for tropical development.

A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual strengthening and organization as the disturbance tracks westward to west-northwestward at approximately 10 to 15 mph.

The NHC says a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter portions of this week over the Central Pacific.

Formation probabilities currently stand at:

• Next 48 hours: 20% (low)

• Next 7 days: 70% (high)

Although the system is located well away from the Hawaiian Islands, its development and movement across the Central Pacific will be worth watching in the days ahead.

Hurricane Season Isn’t Over Yet

Although tropical activity typically decreases as fall progresses, the Atlantic hurricane season officially continues through November 30.

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season also runs through November 30.

For now, neither disturbance has developed into a tropical cyclone, but the Pacific system has the greater potential for organization this week.

WeatherNation will continue monitoring both areas of interest and provide updates as new information becomes available from the National Hurricane Center.