Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Moisture is moving back into the Central and Southern tier of the Rockies and Plains states, bringing flood chances back to the forecast, including Texas this weekend. A low-pressure system will ride around a ridge of high pressure, increasing wind shear in the region, which will help to organize a few severe thunderstorms starting Thursday, with severe weather outlooks in place through Saturday.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 070345-1752152638583.png">Flood Potential</h1>Heavy rain will return with thunderstorms, particularly between I-20 and I-40 where flood potential will be elevated.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752174083296.png">Some heavy downpours could make a return to areas between San Angelo and I-35 by the weekend, where intense flooding killed over 100 people July 4th weekend. Thankfully, the flood potential, while present, doesn't look to be on the higher end or widespread. Still, with so much flooding last week these areas will be susceptible to flooding from any heavy rain.<h1>Forecast / Timing</h1>Storms will become more intense in the afternoons, though some storms may persist in the evenings and overnight across the Plains. New rounds of storms are expected to initiate each day / afternoon before pushing east through the late day hours.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/FORECAST-1752178669790.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Severe Weather Outlooks</h1>Severe weather chances will return, slowly shifting south into the weekend. Wind and hail will be the primary threats, though isolated tornadoes are possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752174288263.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2-1752174310480.png">By Saturday, the severe weather threat will drop south and east toward areas more susceptible to flooding.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 065648-1752152728158.png">

Patrick Crawford

Storms Return From the Front Range to Texas

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While the Atlantic appears quiet, conditions can change quickly as waters continue to warm as we inch closer to the peak of hurricane season in mid-September. The National Hurricane Center doesn't have any areas to watch around North America this week, but toward the 2nd/3rd week of July, there will be potential for some tropical development in the Gulf. The CPC (Climate Prediction Center) is highlighting the northern Gulf for this development from July 16th-22nd, though confidence is low.<h1>Forecast Factors</h1>Why is the northern Gulf being highlighted for development in the middle of July? Models favor upper-level troughing to develop over the region toward the middle of the week, which is likely to spur lift and heavy rain.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 072740-1752155310312.png">At the surface, winds could converge around several boundaries that have the potential to form. This is a process similar to conditions that created Tropical Storm Chantal, which moved onshore in the Carolinas on the July 4th weekend, spurring significant flooding in North Carolina.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 072747-1752155317870.png">Warm water is a necessary ingredient for tropical formation, and temperatures in the Gulf are plenty warm to fuel tropical systems. Typically, sea-surface temperatures in the upper 70s are needed for tropical cyclone development.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 081036-1752156680423.png">Water temperatures tend to warm more quickly early in the season in the Gulf and western Atlantic. This is more often where we see early-season development.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 072757-1752155325910.png">Updated CSU Outlook</h1>Colorado State University updated its seasonal forecast on Wednesday, July 9th.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 081155-1752156752337.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 081242-1752156788535.png">

Medium Range Tropics Forecast Favors Gulf, CSU Updates Seasonal Forecast

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Brittany Lockley

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The severe weather and flood threat continues for the Northeast. A slow moving front is bringing in the moisture to the east coast along with a persistent trough situated across the interior Mid-Atlantic. While the overall threat of severe weather and heavy rainfall is lower compared to earlier this week, some of the stronger and slower-moving storms could still produce localized downpours, leading to flooding in vulnerable areas.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752174650628.png">The flood watches come after Chantal, a Tropical Storm that produced heavy rainfall across the Carolinas, therefore some of these areas are already saturated.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-09 041120-1752055892540.png">However, some of the storms ahead of the front will be severe, with the primary threat being damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT risk (below) for parts of Upstate NY and Burlington, VT.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752174685169.png">Over the next few days, some locations can pick up between 1-3" of rain with some isolated heavier totals throughout the Northeast region.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752174751286.png"><h1>Severe Outlooks</h1>Meanwhile, parts of western New England may see a few stronger storms today before more stable air begins to move into the region. By Friday, conditions across New England are expected to become more settled, reducing the likelihood of additional thunderstorms.&nbsp;However, on Friday SPC keeps a MARGINAL risk from the Southeast back into New England.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752174842648.png"><h2>Timing</h2>Storms will happen along and ahead of the frontal boundary. Over the next few days, strong to severe storms can develop, and during peak heating is when the risk for damaging winds and large hail will be the greatest.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/New Baron Video 3-1752178654595.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Tune into WeatherNation :10 the hour for the Eastern Regional Forecast for more details.

Severe Thunderstorms Expected Across the East Coast

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A dynamic summer weather pattern is setting the stage for several rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms across the northern and central Great Plains over the next couple of days. This activity is being driven by upper-level disturbances moving out of the northern Rockies, which will interact with a lifting warm front and a trough to spark widespread storm development. Each of the next 3 days will have severe storms somewhere around this area.<h1>Thursday</h1>A slight risk for severe weather includes the Central Plains, with an enhanced risk area added in Siouxland. The greatest threat for severe weather is expected this afternoon across the northern Plains, where storms could bring damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. As the system progresses eastward, these thunderstorms are forecast to move into the upper Midwest, where the risk shifts toward excessive rainfall and flash flooding.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752173082561.png">&nbsp;A center of low pressure will move east across Nebraska, allowing instability to build ahead of it. This is where we find the best chance at a tornado spinning up Thursday afternoon.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 104706-1752166040187.png"><h1>Timing</h1><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/New Baron Video 3-1752173217839.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>FRIDAY</h1>Sensing a theme? By Friday, a reinforcing cold front will push the primary threats for severe weather and heavy rain further east, affecting the Midwest, upper Midwest, and portions of the central Plains. &nbsp; The overall picture won't change much: very unstable with the potential that a few storms survive from the night previous. South of those storms, we'll expect redevelopment of thunderstorms that will pose a threat.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752173262987.png"><h1>SATURDAY</h1>As the front continues to move, strong thunderstorms may redevelop early Saturday over the central High Plains. Behind the front, a high-pressure system ushering in cooler, drier air from western Canada will settle over the northern High Plains, bringing a temporary break from the stormy conditions.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 061851-1752149941976.jpg">With multiple rounds of storms, flooding will be of some concern, with a few inches of rain likely. The tough thing about uncertainty in severe forecasting is that it brings uncertain rainfall amounts. This is a look at what the Weather Prediction Center is thinking.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752173336852.png">As we continue to iron out the details, check back with us if you have any interests around the Plains states.

Rounds of Severe Storms to Impact Great Plains and Midwest Through the Weekend

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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TEXAS - The death toll has risen past 100 in Texas after devastating flooding swept through the Texas Hill Country. Of those fatalities, at least 84 are from Kerr County, including several children who were at Camp Mystic. Dozens are still missing.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/LL_TRT 1.24_INTERVIEWING PARENT ABOUT HIS CHILDREN BEING RESCUED FROM FLOODED CAMP_DROPBOX_JONATHAN PETRAMALA_LS_E070425-1751840172130.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video> Rescue and recovery efforts have been ongoing since the morning of July 4th. Several relief organizations are on the ground as the long road to recovery begins. Below are some of those organizations.Minuteman Disaster Response:&nbsp;<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/MINUTEMAN INTERVIEW FOR TEXAS ARTICLE-1751993643129.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Minuteman Disaster Response is dedicated to helping those impacted by natural disasters. Minuteman specializes in assisting local emergency response units, debris removal, and more. &nbsp;To learn more about Minuteman and how you can help their mission, you can visit their website: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.minutemanresponse.org/">https://www.minutemanresponse.org/</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;Mercy Chefs:&nbsp;<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/070625_Mercy Chefs_WeatherNation-1751839894110.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Mercy Chefs is a Virginia-based nonprofit specializing in disaster relief. The organization is located in Kerr County, serving hot, chef-prepared meals to victims, first responders, and volunteers impacted by catastrophic flooding. &nbsp;Mercy Chef’s first meal went out on July 5 to first responders and search and rescue crews. Public meal service begins July 6, at Citywest Church, 3139 Junction Highway in Ingram. Lunch will be served from 11 a.m. - 1 p.m. and dinner will be served from 4-6 p.m.&nbsp;To assist with Mercy Chefs' relief efforts, you can learn more at their website: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="http://give.mercychefs.com/texas-flood-250704">http://give.mercychefs.com/texas-flood-250704</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;Red Cross:&nbsp;The American Red Cross continues its 162-year mission of assisting others in times of need by providing relief to those impacted by the Texas flooding. Your donations will help provide shelter, relief supplies, emotional support, and more.&nbsp;Visit the Red Cross’s website to learn more about how to help: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.redcross.org/">https://www.redcross.org/</a>&nbsp;<h3>Team Rubicon:</h3><div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Pt9rvQS5HyM" start="0"></iframe></div>The veteran-led nonprofit organization has deployed three recon teams who are helping assess the needs of those in Texas. Greyshirt volunteers are staffing a Volunteer Reception Center, where local residents can request aid or offer help.Visit Team Rubicon's website to learn more and find out how to help: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://teamrubiconusa.org/">https://teamrubiconusa.org/</a><h3>United Cajun Navy:</h3>A grassroots nonprofit organization that formed in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the United Cajun Navy specializes in delivering life-saving rescue efforts, humanitarian aid, and logistical support in areas severely impacted by catastrophic events. The Cajun Navy has been helping with search and rescue efforts in the Kerrville area after the devastating July 4th&nbsp;flooding event, as well as providing comfort to those impacted by the disaster.&nbsp;To learn more about the Cajun Navy's efforts and how you can support their cause, visit their website: &nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://unitedcajunnavy.org/">https://unitedcajunnavy.org/</a><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/CAJUN NAVY - CHAPLIN-1752169794089.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h3>Mission Mules: </h3>Mission Mules provides a unique approach to disaster response: using mule trains to delivery much needed supplies to areas cut off by disasters. The organization strives to provide immediate relief, but also enduring hope and encouragement. If you've ever heard a mule's hee-haw before, you already know the smile that it brings to people's faces. But just imagine hearing that sound as it brings food, water, and medical supplies to those that need it most in the heart of a disaster.&nbsp;To learn more about Mission Mules and how you can help their mission, visit their website: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://missionmules.org/">https://missionmules.org/</a><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/MISSION MULES - 071025-1752169857916.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Jesse Kelley

Ways To Help Texas Flood Victims

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TEXAS - Catastrophic flooding devastated portions of the Texas Hill Country on July 4, 2025, resulting in the tragic loss of more than 120 lives, according to FEMA.<h4>The following is a timeline of key events leading up to and during this deadly flash flood, compiled from the Department of Homeland Security and other official sources:</h4><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1941987740406460582" src="https://x.com/DHSgov/status/1941987740406460582"></div><h2>Wednesday July 2</h2>The Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM) activated <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://tdem.texas.gov/press-release/7-2-25">emergency response resources</a> in Central Texas in anticipation of heavy rainfall and flash flooding.<h2>Thursday July 3</h2>TDEM increased its readiness level and mobilized additional <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://tdem.texas.gov/press-release/7-3-25">emergency state response</a> resources for Central and West Texas as the flood threat intensified heading into the holiday weekend.Morning:<ul><li>The National Weather Service (NWS) in Austin/San Antonio conducted a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EWX&amp;issuedby=EWX&amp;product=AFD&amp;format=CI&amp;version=32&amp;glossary=1">forecast briefing</a> with emergency management officials, emphasizing the risk of flash flooding.</li><li>The National Water Center issued a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weather.gov/owp/operations-national-fho-archive-multi?d=2025-07-03T06:55:06&amp;e=2025-07-03T06:55:06">Flood Hazard Outlook</a> identifying flash flood potential for Kerrville and surrounding areas.</li></ul>1:13 PM: NWS Austin/San Antonio issued a Flood Watch for Kerr County, effective through Friday morning.6:10 PM: Weather Prediction Center (WPC) released the first of <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archives/metwatch/mpd_archive_days.php?mpddate=07/03/2025&amp;seldate=20250703">three Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions</a> (MPD #0580, #0581, #0582), warning of excessive rainfall and flash flood potential.<img src="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/images/mcd0582.gif">6:22 PM: National Water Center issued an <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd-archive-multi?d=2025-07-05T06:50:36">alert </a>for "considerable flooding risk" north and west of San Antonio, including Kerrville.<img src="https://www.weather.gov/images/owp/AHD/Archive/AHD_2025-07-05T06:50:36.png">11:41 PM: The first Flash Flood Warning was issued for Bandera County.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1940994392094875676" src="https://x.com/NWSFlashFlood/status/1940994392094875676"></div><h2>Friday July 4</h2>1:14 AM:<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/NWSFlashFlood/status/1941017778992926804"> Flash Flood Warnings </a>with "considerable damage" tags were issued for Bandera and Kerr Counties, triggering Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEAs) and NOAA Weather Radio notifications.4:03 AM: Flash Flood Warning is upgraded to a Flash Flood Emergency for south-central Kerr County, including Hunt.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1941060338822033425" src="https://x.com/NWSFlashFlood/status/1941060338822033425"></div>4:35 AM: Kerr County Sheriff's Office reports flooding at the low water crossing, over three hours after the initial 1:14 AM warning.4:35 AM: A US Geological Survey (USGS) gauge on the Guadalupe River recorded a river level of 29.5 feet.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-09 155734-1752108463877.png">5:10 AM: National Water Center <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd-archive?d=2025-07-04">warned</a> of "widespread, considerable, and catastrophic flooding."<img src="https://www.weather.gov/images/owp/AHD/Archive/AHD_2025-07-04T06:15:36.png">5:34 AM: Flash Flood Emergency is issued for the Guadalupe River, signaling a "large and deadly flood wave."<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1941083202749161589" src="https://x.com/NWSFlashFlood/status/1941083202749161589"></div>5:45 AM - A USGS gauge recorded the Guadalupe River at 34.29 feet - an extreme and life-threatening level.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-09 163021-1752108484878.png">The rest of the day brought devastation to communities throughout the region.9:00 PM - Governor Greg Abbott issued a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-statement-on-hill-country-flooding-">formal statement </a>and signed a disaster declaration for the impacted areas.<div class="fb-post" data-href="https://www.facebook.com/TexasGovernor/posts/1268547011592046?ref=embed_post" data-width="500" src="https://www.facebook.com/TexasGovernor/posts/1268547011592046?ref=embed_post" style="display: flex; justify-content: center"></div>For more on the unfolding aftermath and how to support those affected, visit: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/ways-to-help-texas-flood-victims#google_vignette">Ways to Help Texas Flood Victims.</a>

Timeline: How Catastrophic Flooding Unfolded in Texas Hill Country

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Image Above: Map of the U.S. selected significant climate anomalies and events in June 2025<h4>CREDIT: NOAA</h4>Summer’s arrival was marked by a widespread June heatwave; dry conditions in the Northwest contrasted with wet conditions in the central and southern U.S. A widespread late-June heatwave impacted much of the central and eastern U.S. and brought record-setting temperatures. More than 100 million people across 726 counties experienced record heat from June 22–25.<h2>Temperature</h2>The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) in June 2025 was 71.2°F, 2.8°F above the 20th-century average, and ranked seventh warmest in the 131-year record. Temperatures were above average across most of the Lower 48, with much-above-average warmth affecting large areas of the western third of the country, along with parts of the Florida Peninsula, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast and Great Lakes regions. Rhode Island saw its second-warmest June on record and its warmest for nighttime minimum temperatures, which were 5.8°F above average.Alaska’s average temperature for June was 50.8°F, 1.6°F above the long-term average and ranking in the warmest third of the 101-year record. While parts of the southeast Panhandle were slightly cooler than average, the North Slope was notably warm at more than 3 degrees above average.The average temperature for the CONUS during the first half of 2025 (January–June) was 49.6°F, 2.1°F above the 20th-century average, ranking in the warmest third of the 131-year record. All states recorded temperatures above their long-term averages for the six-month period, with much-above-average warmth observed across parts of the West, Southwest and portions of the East Coast. Alaska’s year-to-date average temperature was 26.8°F, 5.5°F above its long-term average, tying as the fourth-warmest January–June in the 101-year record.<img src="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/sites/g/files/anmtlf171/files/inline-images/tave-anom-202506.png" alt="Map of the U.S. showing temperature departures from average for June 2025 with warmer areas in gradients of red and cooler areas in gradients of blue." title="Map of the U.S. showing temperature departures from average for June 2025 with warmer areas in gradients of red and cooler areas in gradients of blue.">Photo: June U.S. Mean Temperature Departures from Average Map<h2>Precipitation</h2>The average precipitation for the contiguous U.S. in June was 3.22 inches, 0.30 inch above the long-term average, ranking in the wettest third of the 131-year record. Much of the Southwest, the southern and central Plains, the middle and upper Mississippi Valley, parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region and areas of the Deep South recorded above-average rainfall. In contrast, drier-than-average conditions prevailed from the central West Coast through the Northwest and into the Rockies. The Northwest region experienced its third-driest June on record—and driest since 2003—with Washington and Oregon each receiving less than half an inch of rain for the month. Parts of north-central California and south-central Washington recorded no measurable rainfall for the entire month.For the January–June period, the CONUS averaged 15.70 inches of precipitation, 0.40 inch above the long-term average, ranking in the middle third of the 131-year record. Most of the western half of the country, along with a narrow band from the central Plains through the mid-Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southeast, were drier than average. Above-average precipitation was recorded from the southern Plains through the lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast, as well as in parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley.Alaska received 2.32 inches of precipitation in June, which was near the long-term average. Conditions were drier than average across the eastern interior and North Slope but wetter than normal in the western and southwestern parts of the state. For the first half of the year, Alaska recorded 16.58 inches of precipitation, 2.96 inches above average, marking its fifth-wettest start to the year on record.<img src="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/sites/g/files/anmtlf171/files/inline-images/grid-ranks-prcp-202506.png" alt="Map of the U.S. showing precipitation percentiles for June 2025 with wetter areas in gradients of green and drier areas in gradients of brown." title="Map of the U.S. showing precipitation percentiles for June 2025 with wetter areas in gradients of green and drier areas in gradients of brown.">Photo: June 2025 U.S. Total Precipitation Percentiles<h3>Drought</h3>According to the July 1 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" class="ext" href="https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx">U.S. Drought Monitor report</a>, about 32.4% of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, an increase of approximately 2.8% since the beginning of the month. Drought developed or intensified across much of the Northwest through the Rocky Mountains and in small areas of the Alaskan interior. Conversely, drought contracted or was reduced in intensity across parts of the Southwest and southern Texas, the central and northern Plains, the upper Mississippi Valley, and parts of Florida.<h2>Monthly Outlook</h2>July temperatures are expected to be above normal across the entire contiguous U.S., with the highest likelihood of warmer-than-average conditions in the Mountain West, southern Texas and throughout much of the Great Lakes and the Northeast. For rainfall, parts of the Northwest and the southern and central Plains are expected to be drier than normal, while the interior East is favored to have a wetter-than-average July. Drought is likely to persist across much of the western U.S. in July, with some further development in the Northwest, while improvement is expected across southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico and far West Texas, where above-average rainfall is favored.Visit the Climate Prediction Center’s <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/">Official 30-Day Forecasts</a> and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/mdo_summary.php">U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook</a> website for more details.Significant wildland fire potential is above normal for July across the Northwest, Hawaii and Puerto Rico. For additional information on wildland fire potential, visit the National Interagency Fire Center’s <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" class="ext" href="https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/month1_outlook.png">One-Month Wildland Fire Outlook</a>.For more detailed climate information, check out NOAA's comprehensive <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/">June 2025 U.S. Climate Report</a> scheduled for release on July 14, 2025. For additional information on the statistics provided here, visit the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/">Climate at a Glance</a> and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/us-maps/">National Maps</a> webpages.

Assessing the U.S. Climate in June 2025

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Tracey Anthony

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A slow-moving monsoonal thunderstorm developed over the burn scars from last year’s South Fork and Salt wildfires west of Ruidoso. In a short period of time, 2-6" of rain fell directly over a burn scar generating a flash flood emergency.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1942924195832213932" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1942924195832213932"></div>The Rio Ruidoso rose explosively, jumping nearly 19 ft within minutes and cresting at a staggering 20.24 ft, approximately 5 ft above the previous record of 15.86 ft set on July 20, 2024. This is a new record for the river.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Web 1-1752066478299.png">Ruidoso is a tourist town but the area has been plagued with active wildfires, in past years and these scarred terrain lead to flash flooding due to lack off vegetation, significantly reducing soil absorption and boosting surface runoff. Flood watches remain in place for the day today as more afternoon monsoonal storms are expected to develop in the area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Web 2-1752066541392.png">

Chris Tomer

Ruidoso Flash Flooding - Record Crest for the Rio Ruidoso River

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Kevin Schneider

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Heavy rainfall was tough to move late Tuesday night in the Chicagoland area. With some highly localized areas picking up 3-5 inches of rain, flash flooding was imminent.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-09 062800-1752064653285.jpg">Showers pushed in around 9-10 PM CDT and didn't end until after midnight. By then, the efficient rain-producer left several motorists stranded as the water swamped many areas of the metro. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2025-07-09 06-34-14-1752064661596.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The crosshairs of the storms will slide east into Michigan. Some could produce damaging winds into this afternoon, including around the Detroit metro area. This isn't expected to be a severe weather outbreak, however, with the Storm Prediction Center highlighting this area with a MARGINAL severe outlook. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-09 063948-1752065063024.jpg">

Chicago Inundated With Heavy Rain Overnight

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

Alana Cameron

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WEST - Heat alerts have been issued across the western U.S.. The cause of this heat wave is an upper-level ridge building in from Mexico. This will be responsible for the intense heat in the southwest.Heat advisories (orange), extreme heat warnings (pink), and extreme heat watches (red) have been issued for portions of California, Nevada, and Arizona through Thursday. Temperatures may rise to 110-116°F in some of these locations. Too hot for the human body to handle. Unfortunately, heat is the deadliest weather phenomenon in the USA.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-09 041818-1752056317453.png">Here's a look at our forecasted temperatures in comparison to the average. Wednesday looks to be the hottest day of the week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-09 041858-1752056388476.png">HeatRisk levels are upwards of extreme as well on Wednesday, which is the highest level of HeatRisk. Please be cautious during this heat spell.<h3><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-09 041849-1752056377967.png">Long Range Outlook - CPC</h3>The Climate Prediction Center keeps the western U.S. looking hot. These outlooks are based on the confidence of temperatures being above average, NOT how much hotter it will be.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-09 041912-1752056365131.png">For more details on this and how the heat will impact fire danger, be sure to join us on WeatherNation at :50.

Dangerous Heat Building Out West

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Tropical Storm Chantal formed Saturday morning and made landfall early Sunday morning with sustained winds of 50 mph. Winds have knocked down some palm fronds and lead to a foot or two of storm surge so far. Chantal turned into an inland flooding threat, especially in North Carolina.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-07 073731-1751895631663.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-07 074408-1751895856913.png"><h1>Forecast</h1>The remnants of Chantal will continue to move Northeast and eventually get picked-up by an inbound cold front and carried back out to sea. Until that happens, efficient rainfall could produce some localized areas of flooding Monday. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/tomer chantal futurecast-1751848909743.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>A narrow band of heavy rain accumulation is possible through Tuesday morning.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-07 074157-1751895727202.png">Catch more details on the southeast during your Southeastern Regional Forecast, :10 past the hour on WeatherNation.

Chantal Weakens After Making Landfall Sunday Morning

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Multiple Flash Flood Emergencies were issued Friday morning and again Saturday morning as heavy rainfall moved through portions of the Texas Hill Country. Several locations accumulated over a foot of rainfall in a short amount of time, including San Angelo, which recorded almost 13" of rainfall. The yearly average of rainfall for San Angelo is around 21".A second bullseye emerged near Round Rock, TX with over 20 inches of rain in Bertram, TX.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1941655838403526721" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1941655838403526721"></div><h1>FRIDAY</h1>As storms ignited Friday, they were largely anchored in the same position all night. Rainfall rates of 3-4 inches per hour started to pile up. Add into that the topography of the Texas Hill Country and we had a recipe for disaster.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/tomer tx totals-1751848097770.jpg"><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1941108484847886805" src="https://x.com/NWSSanAngelo/status/1941108484847886805"></div>All of the heavy rain that fell became focused into the Guadalupe River that runs through the area.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1941126276699619470" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1941126276699619470"></div><h1>SATURDAY</h1>Another nearly stationary cluster of storms developed overnight. Areas just west of Round Rock have already picked up more than 12 inches of rain since earlier this morning.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-05 162329-1751754216251.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1751768546910.png">As rivers rise again, please heed Flash Flood Warnings and get to higher ground as soon as they're issued.<h1>WHAT HAPPENED?</h1>A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) was spinning around the area the past few mornings. That helps generate showers and storms - it's its own low-pressure system. That spun its way through a very moist airmass. But without any upper-level winds to help push these storms anywhere, it rained and rained over the same places for extended periods of time.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2025-07-05 07-30-23-1751724329889.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Catastrophic Flooding in the Texas Hill Country

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Following the prolific start to the season, the Eastern Pacific remains quite active as the National Hurricane Center is tracking two different areas of interest southwest of Mexico. Invest 96E or the orange highlighted area has a medium chance of development in the next couple of days. The chances have backed off as it appears less likely that something will come together. The region outlined in yellow is quickly falling apart with 0% chance of development.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/tomer tropics epac-1751913671695.jpg">The spaghetti plots show 96-E remaining well south of Mexico as it churns westward. This will limit impacts to the west coast of Mexico but interests in Hawaii should keep an eye on this system for the potential of increased rain chances next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/tomer e pac spag-1751848680670.jpg">This system could bring stronger currents to Mexico's coast, but if it remains weak before moving farther west impacts should be minimal.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/tomer e pac futurecast-1751848767502.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>For more details on this forecast, be sure to check out the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP1+shtml/020252.shtml">National Hurricane Center's </a>website.

Eastern Pacific Remains Active

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AAA is expecting over 70 million travelers to take to the roads and skies over the Fourth of July Weekend. Unfortunately, heavy rainfall could throw a wrench into those plans, as slow-moving systems keep rain chances around.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-30 073837-1751290861562.png">After a hot work week, especially out west, the temperature for the 4th of July will be near seasonal for many. Folks in the Upper-Midwest will see temperatures about 5-10 degrees above average.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-04 043305-1751625473813.png">A few spots will see some slightly warmer than normal temperatures, with a few cooler than normal!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-03 211458-1751598907955.png">By the evening, time for fireworks, there will be a few areas of potential showers! Plan accordingly for the evening festivities. This is around 9 PM ET.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-04 043315-1751625481746.png">If you are in Florida, there will be increased chances for showers and storms, with an area of interest being monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Related Article: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/hurricane-center-monitoring-florida-for-tropical-development">Hurricane Center Monitoring Florida for Tropical Development</a>Did you know this is how fireworks work? Different elements emit different wavelengths of light when heated. That results in the various colors you see when watching a fireworks show!<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/0701-1751375281844.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Near Seasonal Temperatures for Many Come July 4th!

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NORTHEAST -A shortwave trough will swing through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast on Thursday, bringing the threat of afternoon thunderstorms along an advancing cold front. Warm and humid air ahead of the boundary will help fuel the risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated hail.The SPC has issued a SLIGHT (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe storms in these areas.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/PIC 1-1751573415086.jpg">Storms look to start during the day in New York State, but the frontal boundary doesn't move towards the I-95 corridor and clear until later into the evening/nighttime frame.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2025-07-03 05-06-29-1751540825848.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>This next frontal boundary is coming just a couple of days after significant flash flooding happened in the northeast, so the flooding threat where we have already seen rain may be more sensitive to flash flooding through the end of the week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-03 042835-1751538519921.jpg">

Northeast Severe Threat on Thursday

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NORTHWEST - Today, portions of Montana are under heat advisories until this evening for temperatures that could reach the century mark. Please know the signs of heat exhaustion or heat stroke if you live in these areas.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1940370908499136862" src="https://x.com/NWSGlasgow/status/1940370908499136862"></div>With hot temperatures in the forecast across these areas, there is also the risk of scattered severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe storms across portions of Montana through tonight. Damaging winds appear to be the main hazards.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-02 112106-1751476889436.png">The timing of these storms favors the peak of afternoon heating. But the help of an upper-level shortwave can bring these storms during "off hours" too. This frontal boundary eventually moves on to disturb the north-central U.S. in time for the holiday. More details on that are here: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/rounds-of-severe-for-plains">Rounds of Severe For Plains.</a><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/New Baron Video 3-1751482808855.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Behind this system, temperatures drop down to more comfortable numbers for the holiday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-02 112142-1751477085378.png">Long-range outlooks out west look to favor above average temperatures, so be sure to join us for the latest on that on WeatherNation live on television.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-02 111153-1751477115181.png">

Storms Return From the Front Range to Texas

Storms Return From the Front Range to Texas

Medium Range Tropics Forecast Favors Gulf, CSU Updates Seasonal Forecast

Medium Range Tropics Forecast Favors Gulf, CS

Severe Thunderstorms Expected Across the East Coast

Severe Thunderstorms Expected Across the East

Rounds of Severe Storms to Impact Great Plains and Midwest Through the Weekend

Rounds of Severe Storms to Impact Great Plain

Ways To Help Texas Flood Victims

Ways To Help Texas Flood Victims

Timeline: How Catastrophic Flooding Unfolded in Texas Hill Country

Timeline: How Catastrophic Flooding Unfolded

Assessing the U.S. Climate in June 2025

Assessing the U.S. Climate in June 2025

Ruidoso Flash Flooding - Record Crest for the Rio Ruidoso River

Ruidoso Flash Flooding - Record Crest for the

Chicago Inundated With Heavy Rain Overnight

Chicago Inundated With Heavy Rain Overnight

Dangerous Heat Building Out West

Dangerous Heat Building Out West

Chantal Weakens After Making Landfall Sunday Morning

Chantal Weakens After Making Landfall Sunday

Catastrophic Flooding in the Texas Hill Country

Catastrophic Flooding in the Texas Hill Count

Eastern Pacific Remains Active

Eastern Pacific Remains Active

Near Seasonal Temperatures for Many Come July 4th!

Near Seasonal Temperatures for Many Come July

Northeast Severe Threat on Thursday

Northeast Severe Threat on Thursday

Northwest Heat Met With Thunderstorm Risk

Northwest Heat Met With Thunderstorm Risk