Hurricane Polo is moving north, set to make landfall in the Baja California of Mexico Today. As it pushes inland into Tuesday, its moisture will funnel into the United States. As a trough of low pressure digs across the West and interacts with that moisture, the south central U.S. will see a multi-day flood threat develop. While they need the rain, drought conditions and dry ground will initially exacerbate the flood threat.

RELATED ARTICLE: Polo Prompts Extreme Flood Threat for the Southwest

TIMING

Onshore flow from the Gulf will all for a handful of scattered storms to pop up Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, storms from the southwest will begin moving into the region and bring heavy rain. The upper level trough will help enhance lift and drag a slow moving boundary through Texas through Thursday. As Pacific and Gulf Moisture feed the system, rainfall becomes more plentiful and efficient both days. Storms will linger on Friday, before the system slowly moves east.

Not surprising, with such a dynamic system, we could see a threat for severe storms on Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center has already issued a slight risk for damaging wind and hail potential.

RAIN & FLOOD THREAT

Rainfall totals through Friday will easily hit the 3-5" range for much of Central Texas and Oklahoma. Isolated totals could reach 6-8". We expect Flash Flood Watches to be issued in the region very soon.

Monday and Tuesday, the greatest chance for dangerous flash flooding will be from the Desert Southwest into the Panhandle region. As the front marches east, so does the Moderate Risk from the Weather Prediction Center. Interests up and down the I-35 corridor should pay close attention to the forecast and current conditions through midweek. That's where the threat settles for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

DROUGHT

Extreme summer heat and lack of precipitation has pushed parts of the south central U.S. into Exceptional Drought (level 4 out of 4). Dallas has been breaking records for heat and dry conditions this month. They have shattered the previous record for consecutive days above 90°, with more than 100 in a row! These conditions are important, because they will impact the way the ground handles the incoming rainfall. Think of it like a dry sponge. When you turn on the faucet, the water initially runs off. It takes a bit for it to start to absorb. If the rain runs off of the hard ground, it goes into homes and businesses before being absorbed.