Residents in Hawaii are bracing, yet again, for big impacts from an approaching tropical system. While Hawaii is typically successful at dodging incoming tropical storms and hurricanes, the record breaking El Niño and it's warm waters have spurred extra activity in the basin this season.

Nolo formed from the remnants of Tropical Depression 15e, which formed in the Eastern Pacific Basin way back on September 13th, but decayed back to a remnant low a few days later. The circulation survived as a tropical wave, which re-organized into TD15e on Wednesday, September 24th. It was upgraded to Tropical Storm Nolo later in the afternoon.

Forecast / Impacts

Nolo will continue to gain strength and organization as it heads north toward Hawaii through Friday, before taking a hard turn to the left over the weekend. While the core of the system is expected to remain offshore, very heavy rain, intense surf, and gusty winds are still expected to impact the islands of Hawaii.

Flooding

Flash flooding is expected, particularly on the Big Island which will see the rainfall increase through early Saturday. Flood watches have been issued for the eastern islands in the chain, which does not yet include Oahu.

Rainfall totals could surpass 1-2 feet in some areas of the Big Island, especially on the eastern and northern sides, while Maui could see some rainfall totals of 10 - 20 inches.

Wind / Waves

Tropical storm winds aren't likely for many areas in Hawaii, however the varried terrain in Hawaii could funnel gusts at certain directions, increasing wind impacts away from the center o the storm. Sustained winds near tropical storm force (39 mph and above) are possible for the southern Big Island but, if the wind field expands greatly, hurricane force winds still can't be ruled out.

The Big Island currently has a 20 - 70% chance of seeing tropical storm force winds, from north to south. The southern tip of the Big Island up to Kailua will see the greatest wind impacts, where residents and tourists should be prepared for debris and a better chance for power outages.

When should you have your home ready for the wind? While most residents aren't expected to see strong enough winds for damage to occur, loose objects should still be secured before the times in the graphic above. That's when the wind has the potential to start blowing at tropical storm force.

Waves and a high risk for rip currents will be present through the weekend, diminishing next week. Swells around some beach areas could top 12 feet!