Kevin Schneider

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<p>The trough responsible for the storms along the East Coast Sunday will be followed by another similar system. The threat of strong winds returning will have Halloween decorations shaking again as this system moves into the Midwest. </p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1979751863043113082" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1979751863043113082"></div><p>The one main difference: this front doesn't look like it has enough moisture to fire up a lot of storms. But there will be rain...</p><p></p><h1>WIND</h1><p>We're going in order of impact, with this system being the wind maker that will have any foliage howling. Gusts could top 40 mph in areas of the Upper Midwest on Monday, with 20-30 mph gusts around the Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday. In case you didn't learn you lesson with this trough's predecessor, secure the Halloween decorations. It won't clean out all of the foliage in these areas, but the days of enjoying the leaves are starting to get limited. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 072035-1760880069038.png"></p><h1>TEMPS</h1><p>Aside from the wind (and projectile leaves) the refreshing cooldown will get you in the Fall mood. If your neighbor's inflatable pumpkin doesn't. Temperatures in some places like Minneapolis, will go from nearing 60 to struggling to get out of the 40s. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 072622-1760880641583.png"></p><h1>RAIN</h1><p>Who's ready for the lake effect machine? Well its starting this week...sorta. Lake-enhanced showers will make an appearance with this system on Tuesday and Wednesday, but it's the same principle. Cold air moving over a relatively warmer body of water and VOILA! It's just not cold <strong><em>enough</em></strong> for snow. We'll get there, especially if the lakes struggle to freeze over again like they did last Winter. </p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-19 07-36-45-1760881032995.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h3>Wanna see how your Winter is shaping up? <br><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/noaa-releases-outlook-for-winter-25-26"><strong>NOAA's Winter Outlook</strong></a></h3>

Next System Blows Even More Leaves Out of Trees

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<p>October has been relatively quiet in terms of severe weather. That all came to an end Saturday as storms rumbled through the Central and Southern Plains. A few storms </p><h1>TIMING</h1><p>Generally thinking storms that we'll have on our hands will get a touch stronger toward the midday hours. However, areas like Long Island and other areas of the northeast may need to watch these storms overnight, with modeling keeping them west of the cities. </p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-19 04-07-04-1760868503636.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>OUTLOOKS</h1><p>As the front moves eastward on Sunday, a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) has been issued for the mid-south and the Ohio Valley. The primary threat will be damaging winds and a tornado or two. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760825683446.png">On the north end of the front, ingredients for severe weather could come together as well. Another area highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center for more of the same - damaging winds and a tornado or two. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 035516-1760867727321.jpg"></p><p></p><h1>RAINFALL TOTALS</h1><p>The severe storms will also be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding. A few locations could pick up a few inches of rain especially near the Ozarks.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760841791359.png"></p><p>Tune into WeatherNation TV for the latest details.</p>

Patrick Crawford

Strong Fall Front Fires Up Severe Chances This Weekend

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<p style="margin: 0in; margin-bottom: .0001pt;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; color: #454545;">Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a></span></p>

Rob Bradley

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<p>A wet pattern is shaping up for the Northwestern United States, especially closer to the coast. Multiple low pressure systems are expected to track toward this region over the next two weeks, including a wet system this weekend.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/pic6-1760878581714.png"></p><p>Heavy precipitation will gradually increase Saturday before spreading south and east to end the weekend.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/New Baron Video 3-1760841224064.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>New rain totals along and west of the Cascades could top 2-4 inches in some areas, while new snow in higher elevations could easily surpass 6-12 inches. Winter alerts have been issued for parts of the Cascades and Northern Rockies into Monday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760826627340.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760826725875.png"></p><p>Get the latest forecast for the northwest anytime at :50 past the hour or with the WeatherNation app.</p>

Wet Pattern for the NW Continues

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<p>As the Atlantic hurricane season enters its final stretch,&nbsp;a new tropical wave is emerging in the central Atlantic Ocean. The disturbance, which is moving westward at around 15 to 20 mph, has drawn attention from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) due to its potential to organize over the next several days. Although the system currently has a 50% chance of development in the short term,&nbsp;environmental conditions could become more favorable later this week as it approaches the Caribbean.<span style="color: rgb(36, 36, 36)">&nbsp;</span><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 042026-1760869240333.jpg"></p><p>The long-range models have been hinting at some potential tropical development of the Caribbean wave this week.&nbsp;Right now, the wave is battling some dry air and moderate wind shear, two factors that often limit tropical development. By mid- to late week, as it continues westward, the system will encounter more humid air and slightly weaker upper-level winds. That is when long-range models&nbsp;indicate there is a better chance for gradual organization. Below is just <strong>ONE MODEL RUN</strong> of what could happen going forward!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760840857600.png"></p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/New Baron Video 3-1760841002246.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Sea surface temperatures remain warm across much of the Atlantic basin, providing ample fuel if the wave can find a pocket of lower shear and increased moisture. As this wave closes in on the Leeward Islands, little to no development is expected. However, heavy rain and breezy conditions will move through the island chain. What happens after that? Only time will tell.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 044010-1760697624879.png"></p><p>The concerns? The Caribbean is still as warm as bathwater right now, so it wouldn't take much time for something to potentially organize. The concern after that? Where does the system go IF it develops? Again, still a big IF, but climatologically speaking, this is where we would expect an October storm. This latest tropical wave is part of a broader late-season pattern typical of October, when the main area of development shifts westward toward the Caribbean and Gulf. During this time of year, even a small system can strengthen quickly if the conditions align, making close monitoring essential for the islands and nearby coastal regions. While many tropical waves fade harmlessly over open water, the warmth of the western Atlantic and the seasonal transition can sometimes give these systems a late-season boost.<span style="color: rgb(36, 36, 36)">&nbsp;</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-16 075337-1760622828329.png">So what's the final outcome with this system? How many systems have "looked good" 7 days out and have fizzled on us this year? Are there some ensemble models that find some development? Sure. Are all of them developing this wave? Not yet. October is not the month to let your guard down.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 103336-1760546429287.png">Tune into WeatherNation for the top weather headlines for more on the tropics.</p>

Next Wave in the Atlantic to Watch

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<p>Ready for another La Niña winter? NOAA quietly released it's outlook for the upcoming winter season on Thursday, sans press conference since the government shutdown continues. The press conference has been rescheduled to November but the outlook is still ready for us to digest.<br><br>As a reminder, these outlooks are for the overall three month pattern and do not serve to predict seasonal snowfall totals or bursts of cold/warmth that are likely to impact areas highlighted with the seemingly opposite outlook.<br><br>The National Weather Service released the following video showcasing the newly released outlooks for temperature, precipitation, and drought from December through February.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1978839667907744157" src="https://x.com/NWS/status/1978839667907744157"></div><h1>Temperature</h1><p>Above average temperatures are favored across the southern tier of the United States, while below average temperatures are favored across the Upper-Midwest and Northwest. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065848-1760706897085.png"></p><h1>Precipitation</h1><p> As the jetstream is likely to remain more active across the northern tier of the country, allowing for cooler air, it should also allow for more storms to track through these areas. As such, above average precipitation is favored from the Northwest through the Great Lakes, while drier than average conditions are expected from Southern California through Florida and the Carolinas. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065852-1760706026499.png"></p><h1>Influences</h1><p>In case you missed it, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/la-nina-advisory-issued-how-this-could-affect-the-winter-season"><u>a La Niña Advisory was issued last week</u></a> as these conditions were observed in the equatorial Pacific west of South America. La Niña is expected to persist through winter, which is one of the primary reasons the winter outlook favors the areas it does. La Niña patterns vary greatly from year to year, depending on the strength of La Niña and the phase of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). </p><p>The graphic below shows the typical pattern of the Pacific and Polar jets during a La Niña winter, which usher in cooler and wet air masses. <br><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065856-1760707324994.png"></p><p>There is lower confidence that La Niña continues through the late winter and early spring (graphic below), which could throw a wrench in the seasonal forecast. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 073303-1760707994646.png"></p><p>ENSO (El Niño &amp; southern Osciallation) neutral conditions have a less obvious pattern influence, but wetter conditions can develop farther south than during<strong> </strong>La Niña. What's the takeaway? Be prepared for anything this winter! We'll always keep you up to date on air and online.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 073307-1760708002217.png"></p>

Wet Pattern for the NW Continues

Next Wave in the Atlantic to Watch

NOAA Releases Outlook for Winter 25-26'

Next System Blows Even More Leaves Out of Trees

Strong Fall Front Fires Up Severe Chances This Weekend

Wet Pattern for the NW Continues

Next Wave in the Atlantic to Watch

NOAA Releases Outlook for Winter 25-26'

Next System Blows Even More Leaves Out of Trees

Strong Fall Front Fires Up Severe Chances This Weekend

Wet Pattern for the NW Continues

Next Wave in the Atlantic to Watch

NOAA Releases Outlook for Winter 25-26'