2017 Hurricane Forecast from Colorado State University
Here we are at the beginning of April and it is already time to start thinking about the upcoming 2017 hurricane season. Meteorologists at Colorado State University issued their forecast Thursday and they are predicting a slightly below average tropical year.
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) April 6, 2017
The forecast calls for 11 named storms, four hurricanes and two major hurricanes reaching Category 3 strength or higher. An average year is 12 names storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
Named Storms (12)* 11
Named Storm Days (60.1) 50
Hurricanes (6.5) 4
Hurricane Days (21.3) 16
Major Hurricanes (2.0) 2
Major Hurricane Days (3.9) 4
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (92) 75
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (103%) 85
* Numbers in ( ) represent medians based on 1981-2010 data.
It may surprise you that the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane season was the first above average season since 2012. It produced 15 named storms, seven of which were hurricane and four of those were major hurricanes.
A weak El Nino is the forecast for the upcoming Summer. El Nino occurs when the waters of the Pacific Ocean show a general trend of warming. This typically produces more wind shear in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere, which can inhibit tropical growth.
The water surrounding the U.S. is warmer than average right now, but water temperatures deeper into the Atlantic Ocean are expected to be cooler than normal for the upcoming season. This provides less fuel for tropical development and may lead to fewer storms.
June 1st is the “official” start of the Atlantic hurricane season.
For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Mace Michaels