All eyes are on the Gulf, as a broad area of low pressure continues to track westward, bringing the potential for unsettled weather. This area is denoted the title AL93, or Invest 93L, and surface observations indicate that this system is generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms, primarily situated to the south of its center.  The National Hurricane Center has this at a 40% chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours.

Forecast Models

Models indicate that this disturbance will continue moving westward and may emerge or redevelop over the far northeastern to north-central Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to approach the Louisiana coast by Thursday. If the system remains far enough offshore, environmental conditions in the Gulf could support further development. In that case, a tropical depression may still form within the next couple of days before the system moves inland by the end of the week. 

Forecast Factors

Why is the northern Gulf being highlighted for development in the middle of July? Models favor upper-level troughing to develop over the region toward the middle of the week, which is likely to spur lift and heavy rain. An area of high pressure will slide west by Thursday, helping steer our system to the north, into land. Where that happens is still up in the air. It will depend on the strength of both the system and the high.

Rainfall and Flooding Concerns 

Regardless of whether it develops into a tropical cyclone, the system is capable of producing heavy rainfall. Flood Watches are in effect for portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

Some models have the potential of 2-5" of rainfall over the next several days for the Gulf Coast.

As we continue to iron out the details of this system, check back with the forecast, especially if you have interests along any of the Gulf Coast states.