WeatherNation Meteorologists

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In the Gulf (above), the National Hurricane Center has issued a low chance of development for an area of low pressure. Conditions in the Gulf could allow for some slow development if the system remains far enough offshore. Regardless of tropical development, heavy rainfall and localized flooding are possible for parts of the Gulf Coast.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-24 051541-1753355755196.jpg">In the Pacific, we are keeping an eye on an area that has a medium chance of developing south of the Hawaiian Islands. If the storm forms west of 140° longitude, it will get a name from the seldom used Central Pacific Region.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-24 111845-1753377534580.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-24 112020-1753377628391.png"><h1>Why Have The Tropics Been So "Quiet"?</h1>There are a few factors as to why the tropics have been quieter: Saharan dust, cooler ocean temperatures in some regions, and wind shear. These are all things that can limit tropical formation.<h2>Saharan Dust</h2>Forecast models keep dust plumes from Africa from traveling across the Atlantic. This suppresses tropical activity since tropical systems favor moisture. You can see the Saharan Dust trailing behind the area of low pressure moving into the Gulf.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/New Baron Video 3-1753384764123.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>Ocean Temperatures</h2>In what is known as the Main Development Region (MDR), sea surface temperatures have been a little cooler. Tropical systems typically need sea surface temperatures of 80° at a depth of 150 ft for tropical formation. Currently, in the MDR our temperatures are in the high 70s. We are slowly seeing some SST's climbing to around 80°.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-23 073255-1753277589935.png">In fact, a lot of the season in comparison to last year and the year before has been a bit cooler. However, if you look at the numbers, it's been hovering around normal.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-22 142616-1753216233169.png">So what is actually normal? Well, typically, we don't have our first "D" named storms until mid-August, so it looks like the season so far is just averaging "normal", and normal may feel quiet when we compare it to years past.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-22 143043-1753216287218.png"><h1>Looking Ahead</h1>This early in the season, we're still trend spotting. Without a persistent El Nino setup to bring additional shear, we watch the water temperatures. In the Main Development Region, waters had been trending cooler - not anymore. Over the past few weeks, a noticeable spike in Ocean Heat Content has caught those temperatures through a column up to average. Are they on the way to record levels we've seen in the past few years? Time will tell.

Jesse Kelley

Tropical Update: Low Chances for Tropical Development

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Gusty storms have been riding around a massive ridge of high pressure parked over the Central and Eastern U.S. This trend will continue as a trough cuts into the ridge and settles over the Midwest the next few days. Severe storms and flooding are possible.<h1>Severe Weather Outlooks</h1>The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) is highlighted areas around the low and trailing front on Thursday, from the Great Lakes into the Great Plains. Damaging winds are expected to be the main threat. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1753412605327.png">Friday will also have chances for isolated severe storms, though an outlook has not been issued (yet) from the SPC. A trailing low will bring the severe weather threat back to the Great Lakes on Saturday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-24 064350-1753361038044.png"><h1>Forecast Timing</h1> As the front lingers on Friday the region will see additional scattered strong to severe storms before the next low brings another round of strong storms Saturday afternoon.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/New Baron Video 3-1753412692124.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Flooding</h1>Through the weekend, multiple rounds of heavy rain could spur multiple incidents of flash flooding. Pockets of 2-6" of rain are possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1753384499877.png"><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/New Baron Video 3-1753412785397.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Severe Storms Target the Midwest into the Weekend

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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Extreme heat continues to impact several areas of the lower 48 thanks to a strong ridge of high pressure. This 'heat dome' will slide north and deliver extreme heat and humidity to St. Louis and Chicago. Extreme Heat Alerts and Heat Advisories are in effect through the end of the week, with the newest addition being portions of the northeast.The Heat Risk for much of the country is red, which is a major level of heat risk. There are even some areas of purple, which is the highest level of heat danger: Extreme. These locations need to limit time outdoors, stay hydrated, and check on your neighbors.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1753412911046.png">Across the south, with the added humidity, feels-like temperatures will soar to the 110s for some. For instance, Nashville has a forecast high of 96°, but will feel more like 108° Friday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1753412954775.png">The heat will begin to build to the east late in the week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1753383901889.png">This will bring the potential for records across the northeast. Keep in mind the added moisture will still be around, so some of the feels like temperatures will reach the triple digits here too!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-23 075652-1753279059664.png">Stay weather-aware and take heat seriously. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Web 10 -1753017961842.png"><h1>SE Heat</h1>As temperatures cool some for New York and New England, the high pressure ridge will settle over the Southeast by Sunday and will continue to strengthen next week. Widespread EXTREME heat impacts are expected by Sunday into next week with many areas expecting heat index values between 110 - 118° F.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1753384126688.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2-1753384131841.png">

127 Million Under Heat Alerts

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Dave Holder

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Daily afternoon thunderstorms will remain in the forecast east of the Rocky Mountains and out onto the High Plains. With plenty of heat and moisture, severe thunderstorms will be possible.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2025-07-24 07-17-36-1753363113916.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Along with ample heat and moisture, strong upper-level winds will continue to overspread the area, both from an upper-low dipping down from Canada and along the periphery of the big heat dome across the central U.S. Friday's SPC risk includes the Dakotas for the threat of wind and hail. An isolated tornado threat is possible too.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1753413182945.png"><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/New Baron Video 3-1753413250678.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>More severe storms will be possible across Montana on Saturday. With the repeated rounds of heavy rain, some flooding could be possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2-1753385353022.png">

Daily Afternoon Thunderstorms Across the High Plains

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Yep you read that right. The standing water from recent rains along with the water pulled out of the ground by stalks of corn can help make hot afternoons worse. Don't believe us? The National Weather Service follows this closely in the months of July and August, as the corn matures.READ MORE: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/what-exactly-is-corn-sweat">All About Corn Sweat</a><div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pyOT3C-_FHY" start="0"></iframe></div>Just tacking on a few degrees on the dew point temperature can make a huge difference! Some localized areas could sneak into the upper 70's and low 80's thanks to the corn. Imagine a 5% increase in the humidity.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-22 104736-1753203165516.png">That can jump the Heat Index by 5° if you're hot enough! It makes a difference after a while.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-22 104925-1753203019827.png">As with any sort of heat-related danger, it comes down to preparation - drinking plenty of water, and taking plenty of breaks. Be sure to check on your neighbors, even if they are a few miles away!

"Sweating" Corn Can Ramp Up Humidity in the Midwest

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Kevin Schneider

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Leftover moisture from the ghost of Invest 93L is coming back! It will loop back around the Gulf Coast with heavy rain sliding down I-10 throughout the week. Some places could see 3-7 inches of rainfall, which could lead to some localized flooding.<h1>Timing</h1>On Tuesday the showers will favor the southeast. But this is the continuation of the wet pattern. Think torrential, slow-moving showers and storms. If you get caught under one of these downpours, expect ponding on the roadways and some minor flash flooding.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/tomer se futurecast-1753142080715.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Some of these storms could be severe, with damaging winds being the biggest concern. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-22 100405-1753200273683.png">Towards the second half of the week, the old remains of 93-L will once again pick on Louisiana. That will bring back flooding concerns farther west on I-10. The biggest worry is in the southern parishes of Louisiana. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-22 100519-1753200432489.png">If any of the heavier rain moves onshore, some areas could be talking about 3-5 inches of rainfall, with Thursday looking like the day with the heaviest rain.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-22 100602-1753200423226.png">

Boomerang Moisture from Invest 93L Returns to Gulf Coast

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The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a marginal to slight risk for severe weather across portions of the Midwest. Strong winds and large hailstones will be possible with these storms. There will also be an isolated risk for tornadoes.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/tomer midwest svr overnight-1753063982731.jpg"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/tomer midwest torn overnight-1753063953113.jpg"><h2>Forecast Timing</h2>Thunderstorms stay focused near this stationary front through Monday.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/tomer midwest futurecast-1753056929418.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>Flooding Threat</h2>Flood Watches remain in effect into Monday. Thunderstorms could deliver 1-3 inches of rain accumulation.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/tomer midwest flood watches-1753056993526.jpg"> There is a moderate (level 3 out of 4) flooding threat for cities like Quincy, IL to Terra Haute, IN.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/tomer midwest excess overnight-1753064071471.jpg">Stay with WeatherNation for the latest.

Chris Tomer

Severe Weather & Flooding for the Midwest

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WATCH: Dangerous scenes came out of the Grand Canyon, AZ last week on Friday as flash flooding led to these scenes at Mooney Falls. It is common during monsoon season for flash flooding to happen so rapidly so it is especially important to stay weather-aware when rain is in the forecast.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1827752800513671517" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1827752800513671517"></div>The 2024 U.S. monsoon season typically ends on September 30th, so we are still in the thick of the activity across the desert southwest. High pressure to our east and low pressure to our west have helped to funnel in moisture across New Mexico, Colorado, and eastern Arizona. Areas of New Mexico are picking up on the afternoon rain. Several counties under Flood Watches. Ruidoso in particular has already picked up 0.5" - 0.75" of rain. Recent burn scars, urban areas, and locations where the ground is already saturated from recent rainfall will be especially susceptible to rapid runoff and flash flooding.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/08/Ruidoso-1724790682410.png">Multiple rounds of rainfall and storms could run the risk of seeing over 1-3" of rain in New Mexico by Wednesday night. Pay attention to flood alerts that may be issued and be sure to take them seriously.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/08/forecast accum-1724758783557.jpg">Be mindful of your environment and have ways to get weather warnings.

Monsoon Season Not Slowing Down

Tropical Update: Low Chances for Tropical Development

In the Gulf (above), the National Hurricane C

Severe Storms Target the Midwest into the Weekend

Gusty storms have been riding around a massiv

127 Million Under Heat Alerts

Extreme heat continues to impact several area

Daily Afternoon Thunderstorms Across the High Plains

Daily afternoon thunderstorms will remain in

"Sweating" Corn Can Ramp Up Humidity in the Midwest

Yep you read that right. The standing water f

Boomerang Moisture from Invest 93L Returns to Gulf Coast

Leftover moisture from the ghost of Invest 93

Severe Weather & Flooding for the Midwest

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued