Severe Weather Threat Continues Across Central U.S. to Ohio Valley

A frontal boundary stretched across half of the U.S. will continue to bring episodes of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain as it stalls out. The Central U.S. will get the brunt of the severe weather through Thursday, before shifting into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes by Friday. Hail has been impactful in Texas over the last few days, and today was no different. Hail from 1.50" to 2.00" was produced in severe storms today.

SEVERE THREAT

Thursday, the storms will reach the Great Lakes and the Northeast. While the severe threat is expected to lessen compared to earlier in the week, some embedded strong storms may still occur, particularly in areas where instability persists. A Slight risk is issued for Thursday (level 2 out of 5). The threats for Thursday include gusty winds, localized heavy rainfall, and a hail risk. 

More generally, there is a 2-10% risk of tornadoes across Texas, through Arkansas, and through southern Illinois and Indiana. Storms will remain active overnight into Arkansas and Tennessee, and more storms will develop again on Thursday as the frontal boundary lingers.

Scattered thunderstorm will continue ahead and along the front into Friday. Just like previous days, Friday will start off with cloud cover and a nocturnal mesoscale convective system (MCS). This system could bring damaging winds and hail as it moves east across Texas. These early morning storms should limit the afternoon severe weather threat. However, damaging winds and large hail are the still the primary threats.

The combination of repeated rounds of thunderstorms, especially earlier in the week, has left soils saturated in portions of eastern Oklahoma, northeast Texas, and western Arkansas. Though the severe threat shifts east, residual flooding concerns may continue into Thursday in these areas before drying out. 

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