Severe Weather and Heavy Rain Threat Across Central and Southern U.S.

A slow-moving system is bringing the threat of heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe thunderstorms to much of the Central and Southern United States this holiday weekend, with impacts expected to continue through Monday. A nearly stationary front stretching from the Southeast to the Central Rockies is allowing warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico to flow northward. This moisture is interacting with the front, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. 

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather across the same regions, including parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, and the Ozarks. These storms may bring frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts, large hail, possibly over two inches in diameter, and a few isolated tornadoes. The highest risk for very large hail exists over parts of the Southern Plains, particularly in western Texas and southwest Oklahoma. With strong surface heating and abundant moisture in place, intense thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon and evening hours, in some cases persisting overnight. Storms are already forming in Oklahoma, Missouri, and the deep South, with additional activity expected later in the day along a dryline into Texas. The combination of strong instability and moderate wind shear will support the development of supercells capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two. 

Storms linger Saturday morning in Oklahoma and Missouri. Eventually throughout the day these thunderstorms will continue to move down into the south along the warm front. Sunday, it will be rinse and repat. By Monday, more thunderstorms are expected to form across north and central Texas. While early morning storms could limit how much the atmosphere destabilizes in some areas, especially farther north, the overall environment will still support scattered strong storms by afternoon. Conditions remain favorable for more rounds of heavy rainfall and severe weather. 

Flooding will also be a big story this weekend as well, as multiple rounds of rain could lead to hefty totals over 5-8" by the end of the weekend. Rainfall rates will be high at times as well, potentially of 2" per hour.

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 4) of excessive rainfall through Sunday morning for parts of the Central and Southern Plains as well as the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley. As the system progresses, a Moderate Risk (level 3 out of 4) for excessive rainfall is in place from Sunday through Monday morning. This heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding, especially in urban areas, low-lying locations, and near small streams. In some areas, repeated rounds of rain may also cause rising water levels on larger rivers and creeks. 

Download the WeatherNation app to stay informed by monitoring the radar and alerts during this holiday weekend.