Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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<p>It's been months since meaningful snow fell over the higher terrain of California, but that's going to change in the days ahead. Heavy rain, snow, and gusty winds are on the way to the Golden State as a strong trough digs south from Canada to start the work week. Expect impacts to travel in higher terrain, especially over I-80 and CA SR 50 on either side of Lake Tahoe. Over a foot of snow could fall on these corridors.</p><h1>Forecast</h1><p>Scattered rain and snow showers will drift south through the overnight, delivering the first round of snow to the Sierra. Heavier precipitation is expected to develop this afternoon and evening, with flooding rain possible in lower elevations and very heavy snow in the mountains. Rain moves south along the coast to Los Angeles by Tuesday morning as snow continues in the Central Sierra. Conditions are expected to improve by Wednesday.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1013-1760391686940.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Rainfall totals look impressive for an October storm system in California, as it's a bit early in the season for precipitation this heavy. Pockets of 1-3 inches of rain are expected, with isolated totals approaching 4". Rainfall rates and the potential for flooding will likely be highest Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-13 154305-1760391794843.png"></p><h1>Snowfall</h1><p>Snow totals are expected to top a foot or even two feet in the high Sierra, while areas around the Donner Pass can expect 6-12 inches at the summit. Be sure to carry chains and use them once the requirement is put into effect. The heaviest snow is expected from Monday evening into Tuesday.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-13 124340-1760381047912.png">Winter Storm watches and warnings have been issued for the Sierra Nevada, including South Lake Tahoe and Mammoth Lakes, with treacherous travel expected.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-13 100354-1760371449279.png">This will be the first storm this season for the Sierra Nevada. Make sure you are prepared for winter driving across the passes! Heavy bursts of snow are likely at times in the Central Sierra.</p><h1>Severe Threat</h1><p>With such a potent trough ushering in the cold air to fire up snow, it will also help organize storms in the lower elevations. Which means the threat of a few severe storms will move in as the storms do tonight. For areas closer to Los Angeles, it could be after midnight before storms push in. We know this is weird to read, but have ways to receive warnings that will wake you up as you go to bed tonight.</p><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-13 100505-1760371875330.png">Rain &amp; Flooding</h1><p>Heavy rain could be another worry with recently burn scarred land in California. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-13 101136-1760371904323.png">Flash flooding and debris flows will be possible through Tuesday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-13 154404-1760391848999.png"></p><p>Stay with Weather Nation for the latest, with your West Regional forecast every :50 past the hour.</p>

California: Flooding Rain, Heavy Snow, & Isolated Tornadoes

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Kevin Schneider

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<p>Flash flooding will continue to be possible in the southwestern United States over the next few days as tropical moisture is pulled north into the region. Be sure to <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://msc.fema.gov/portal/home">check your property's flood zone</a> and have a plan to seek higher ground if necessary. NEVER drive through flood waters if you cannot easily see the water's depth or the road below it. Washouts are likely in the next few days. In fact, several people needed swift water rescues in Las Vegas Friday night as record rainfall targeted the city (0.92" - 4th wettest day on record in October).</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1977396340784067042" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1977396340784067042"></div><p><br><br>The remnant moisture from the two most recent tropical systems in the Eastern Pacific, Priscilla and Raymond, will lead to heavy showers and thunderstorms over a wide range of terrain throughout the weekend. Several inches of rain are expected across the Four Corners with isolated heavier totals.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-13 123417-1760380472136.png">In addition to the flood threat, severe storms are possible through Tuesday as the trough moving through the northern Rockies increases wind shear farther south. Damaging wind gusts are expected to be the primary threat, but large hail could accompany any of the stronger storms in the afternoons.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-13 123445-1760380497122.png">We have seen heavy rain and flooding with these storms, and that threat will continue over the next few days. The surge of moisture through Tuesday from Raymond will also increase flood chances for areas of Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/HSHSH-1760395428774.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>We'll be detailing this more live on WeatherNation. For a more immediate update on your southwest regional forecast, be sure to tune in at:50!</p>

Jackie Brown

Increasing Flood Threat Across the Southwest With Tropical Influence

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<p>A low-pressure system that has tracked up the East Coast continues to bring threats of coastal flooding, heavy rainfall, and strong winds. While this system has not developed, and is not expected to develop, any tropical characteristics, it’s behaving much like an early-season Nor’easter, delivering similar impacts minus the cold and snow.</p><h2><strong>Rainfall</strong></h2><p>Scattered heavy thunderstorms are expected from Philadelphia and New York through New England tonight and into the start of the work week. While coastal areas will see heavy rain, areas inland (mostly west of I-95) are expected to see much less.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-13 09-37-15-1760362665798.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Areas of 2-5 inches of rain are expected, with isolated areas receiving 6 inches or more. Some areas of South Carolina have already reached 3-4 inches, with a few more possible.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-13 124036-1760380868887.png"></p><h2>Winds &amp; Coastal Flooding</h2><p>The concern for gusty winds has mostly dwindled as of Monday morning. However, coastal areas around Cape Cod and the surrounding islands still have wind advisories in effect until tonight. Gusts in these areas could reach the 40-50 mph mark. Power outages may also be a slight concern throughout the day on Monday.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-13 124050-1760380881432.png"></p><p>Coastal flood alerts have been issued for much of the Atlantic Coast. Sea water flooding during high tides could approach 2-3 feet of inundation in some areas (warning areas in dark green).</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-13 124140-1760380906842.png"></p><p>The major flood stage is expected to be reached around the southern Chesapeake, mostly during high tides. Prepare for sea water inundation to continue into Monday.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-13 124158-1760380926209.png"></p><p>Stay with WeatherNation for the latest updates.</p>

Alana Cameron

October Nor'easter Moves Up the Atlantic Coast with Wind & Storms

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<p>The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season has thus far been dominated by strong hurricanes, curving away from the United States with a few close calls/impacts from weaker systems. Don't let your guard down! October and even November can still churn out strong storms in the Gulf and Caribbean. That being said, we have another storm that will be picking on the fish in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Lorenzo formed Monday morning and will stay well out to sea. About the only meteorologically significant nugget with Lorenzo is whether it will reach hurricane strength.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-13 123710-1760380650686.png"></p><p></p><p>The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has outlined a few regions with chances for tropical development through the middle/end of October.</p><h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-10 045254-1760093597412.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-10 045309-1760093605441.png">EASTERN PACIFIC</h2><p>The more active basin is still going. Another area of development is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center, but nothing is expected to form in the next few days. The next name on the list in the Eastern Pacific Basin is Sonia.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-13 102127-1760372498379.png"></p><p>Make sure to stay tuned to WeatherNation for the latest on the tropics.</p>

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forms in the Atlantic

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<p style="margin: 0in; margin-bottom: .0001pt;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; color: #454545;">Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a></span></p>

Rob Bradley

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<p>La Niña was observed in September, leading to NOAA issuing a La Niña advisory. These conditions are expected to persist through winter into spring, with impacts likely for the upcoming winter season and beyond into next spring. La Niña often plays a role in determining storm tracks during the winter season and severe weather into the spring.</p><h1>What is La Niña?</h1><p>La Niña is one phase of a large circulation over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The prevalent wind direction will churn up cooler or warmer water, based on the direction of the circulation. When winds are prevailing from the east, it churns up cooler waters near the coast of South America and to the west, while areas in the western Pacific see warmer than average water temperatures during this phase. These cooler waters, along with other large scale circulations, impact how air flows across the United States.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-10 110029-1760115646348.png">During strong La Niñas, the jet stream is typically more active from the Northwest through the Great Lakes. This effect is typically less pronounced during weaker events. This often favors better chances for precipitation across the northern tier of the country, including the Northwest and Great Lakes.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-10 095632-1760111817342.png"></p><h1>Impact for Winter 25'-26'</h1><p>NOAA releases their outlook for the upcoming winter season this Thursday (October 16th) but the Climate Prediction Center continuously updates outlooks for three month periods. These outlooks likely won't change much with next week's update but we'll bring you that forecast when it's released. The temperature and precipitation outlooks for December - February show conditions typical for a La Niña year, with below average temperatures favored in the Pacific Northwest.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-10 095641-1760111827269.png"></p><p>The precipitation outlook also favors conditions fairly typical for a La Niña winter, with above average precipitation favored around the Northern Rockies and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-10 095637-1760111827269.png"></p><h1>Spring Severe Weather / Tornado Impacts</h1><p>La Niña is expected to decay through the spring months, which can have a big impact on the severe weather season. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/research_highlight/u-s-regional-tornado-outbreaks-and-their-links-to-spring-enso-phases-and-north-atlantic-sst-variability/">Studies have shown</a> a increase in the potential for tornado outbreaks over certain areas of the country as La Niña decays into a neutral or El Niño phase. These favored areas include the Central/Southern Plains and around the lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-10 105635-1760115430383.png"></p><p>This phase also <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/ENSO_Tornado_Lee.pdf">favors stronger tornadoes</a>, as the number of high end tornadoes and outbreaks increase during this phase.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-10 100658-1760112433708.png"></p><p>Seasonal forecasts are difficult to predict with accuracy, so be sure to check the weather forecasts often with WeatherNation for the latest.</p>

La Niña Advisory Issued, Potential Impacts to Winter Precip & Springtime Tornadoes

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Karissa is the Director of On-Air Operations at WeatherNation. Karissa grew up loving math and science, but really fell in love with Meteorology while attending the College of DuPage in Glen Ellyn, Illinois. After two summers of storm chasing in the central plains, she knew that it was the career path for her. Standing in front of a thunderstorm and feeling the cool outflow knock her over was an experience she will never forget. After two years at COD, she transferred to Metropolitan State University of Denver. Karissa graduated Magna Cum Laude with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology. Her high school and college speech and meteorology professors were extremely supportive and pushed her to succeed. Before joining the WeatherNation team, she previously worked as the Morning Meteorologist at KCAU-TV in Sioux City, Iowa and at WMBD-TV in Peoria, IL. She recently was part of a National Edward R. Murrow award winning team for breaking news for their coverage of the EF-4 tornado in Washington, Illinois. In her free time, Karissa enjoys cooking and trying new foods. She is a self proclaimed 'TV Junkie' who can get into just about any show. She is a die hard Chicago sports fan who loves attending professional sporting events.

Karissa Klos

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<p>The National Weather Service in Grand Forks, ND, has ruled that a tornado near Enderlin, ND, caused EF-5 level damage upon further investigation. This marks the end of 12 years without a surveyed EF-5 tornado in the U.S. The last time EF-5 damage was reported from a tornado was in May of 2013 in Moore, OK.</p><p>The tornado is estimated to have wind speeds greater than 210 miles per hour. This tornado was on the ground for 12.1 miles with a width of just over a mile! Sadly, this storm caused three fatalities.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 104454-1759769110628.png"></p><p>Here is more on what led the NWS to upgrade its survey findings:</p><blockquote><p><em>"The National Weather Service in Grand Forks conducted additional surveys and worked extensively with wind damage experts to further investigate the 20 June 2025 Enderlin, ND tornado #1. The estimated maximum wind speed of the Enderlin, ND tornado #1 is greater than 210 mph and occurred during the time of the train derailment south of Enderlin, ND. The analysis involved forensic damage wind speed estimates for tipping several fully-loaded grain hopper cars and lofting of tanker cars, including one empty tanker car that was tossed about 475.7 ft (145 m)."</em></p></blockquote><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 102949-1759768203710.png">We spoke with the National Weather Service in Grand Forks, ND, to learn more about the decision to upgrade the tornado rating and the factors that influenced the decision.</p><div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xSnzPzENapk" start="0"></iframe></div><h1>SET-UP</h1><p>On June 20, 2025, a derecho brought wind gusts of 70 -105 mph to the north central U.S., spanning over 400 miles and leaving hundreds of thousands of households without power. Multiple long-track, destructive tornadoes were within this storm system.</p><p style="text-align: start">A derecho is a long-lived severe wind event, with specific criteria about the length and width of the damaging wind swath. The <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm"><strong><u>SPC has a detailed page</u></strong></a> dedicated to these destructive windstorms. Several typically occur each year, though they can vary in intensity and area. A notable <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/one-year-ago-the-midwest-derecho"><strong><u>derecho ripped through Des Moines in 2020</u></strong></a>, producing hurricane-force winds and widespread damage.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/2025-06-21%2005-35-48-1750505871964.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2 style="text-align: start">OTHER REPORTS</h2><p style="text-align: start">Wind gusts in North Dakota and Minnesota (as well as northern South Dakota) were impressive, many over hurricane strength. A wake-low also developed behind the leading edge, producing severe strength winds (58+ mph) in some locations for over an hour!</p><p style="text-align: start"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot%202025-06-21%20053620-1750505847379.png">Bemidji, Minnesota, was hit particularly hard in the overnight hours as an intense bout of winds moved through the area, with a tornado potentially embedded in the circulation. The Bemidji Regional Airport reported a gust to 106 mph, with widespread damage reported in the area.</p><p style="text-align: start"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot%202025-06-21%20053627-1750505847378.png">The widely spanning severe winds have left hundreds of thousands of households in the dark the following morning, with some counties reporting well over 60-60% of customers without power. As a reminder, if you're going to run a generator to power anything, keep it at least 25 feet away from any opening in your home, like windows and doors.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/1-1750541351436.png"></p><p style="text-align: start">This was one of many severe weather events that pushed<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/north-dakota-breaks-yearly-tornado-record"> North Dakota to break their yearly tornado record</a>.</p><div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2dgiWTWdp-0" start="0"></iframe></div><h1></h1>

Upgraded North Dakota Tornado Ends EF-5 Drought

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<p>The Eastern Pacific has had a fairly average season so far, with periods of high activity at times. 17 storms have been named thus far, with the total seasonal energy (ACE) running just barely above average (101%). Moisture from Raymond and Post Tropical Priscilla is expected to bring heavy rain chances to the Southwest.</p><h1>Post Tropical Priscilla</h1><p>Priscilla is no more as it has lost its tropical characteristics as it weakened before making landfall near Ensenada, Mexico. Moisture from this system is expected to cause flooding as it moves into the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/moisture-returns-to-the-southwest-some-priscilla-influence-later">Desert Southwest</a>.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760135797187.png"></p><h1>Raymond</h1><p>Tropical Storm Raymond formed west of Acapulco, Mexico and will bring the threat of heavy rain, strong winds, and rough surf. Similar to Priscilla, the moisture from Raymond could bring more heavy downpours into the Desert SW!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-10 193719-1760146644953.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-10 193752-1760146678986.png"></p><p>In the meantime, tropical storm warnings have been issued from Cabo San Lucas to the south of Manzanillo.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760135984651.png">Stay tuned on WeatherNation for the latest!</p>

Brittany Lockley

Eastern Pacific: Raymond Targets Baja California, Desert Southwest with Downpours

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<p style="font-weight: 400;">AAA expects that a record-breaking 112.5 million travelers will take to the nation’s runways, roads and rails for the year-end holidays. That number represents a 4.4 percent increase over last year and the most since AAA has been tracking holiday travel.  In other words, more than one-third of Americans will travel this holiday season.</p>
https://youtu.be/rWeN5mTFD1E

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<p style="font-weight: 400;">The more than 102 million people who will pack up their cars for a holiday road trip, INRIX, a global mobility analytics company, predicts travel times in the most congested cities in the U.S. could be as much as four times longer than a normal trip.</p>
<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-101128" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/12/delay.png" alt="" width="1901" height="1059" />

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<p style="font-weight: 400;">So, why so busy?</p>
<p style="font-weight: 400;">“We're really attributing this to the strength of the economy throughout 2018,” said Tamra Johnson, Spokesperson and PR Manager with AAA National. “We see that consumer spending is strong and also unemployment numbers are low. Also travelers are getting a little break at the gas pump.”</p>
While gas has been relatively expensive throughout this year, a recent drop to the cheapest national gas price averages of the year, combined with rising disposable income, is motivating more Americans to hit the road this holiday season. Gas prices averaged $2.46 for the first week of December, which is two cents per gallon less than one year ago.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-101140" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/12/car-air-graphic.png" alt="" width="1893" height="1066" />

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<p style="font-weight: 400;">According to AAA, the year-end holiday travel period is defined as Saturday, December 22 through Tuesday, January 1, 2019. The 11-day span is one day longer than last year, due to Christmas and New Year’s Day falling on Tuesdays this year.</p>
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AAA advises you take plenty of extra caution if bad weather is anticipated for your travels.

“AAA projects we're going to have to rescue 960,000 travelers...mostly due to dead batteries, flat tires, and lock outs,” said Johnson. “For those that are going to be hitting the road, you want to make sure you're checking the weather not only at your current location and final destination, but all the way along your route.”

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-101141" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/12/pre-travel-tips.png" alt="" width="1905" height="1069" />

Warm-weather destinations are top draws in the winter months, occupying nine of the top 10 spots on the list of most popular holiday destinations, based on AAA’s online and travel agency air and tour bookings.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-101129" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/12/destinations-graphic.png" alt="" width="1876" height="1059" />

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Check your travel forecast anytime,<a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/video/"> on demand, right here on WeatherNationTV.com </a>

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AAA Projects Record Numbers of Holiday Travelers

California: Flooding Rain, Heavy Snow, & Isolated Tornadoes

It's been months since meaningful snow fell o

Increasing Flood Threat Across the Southwest With Tropical Influence

Flash flooding will continue to be possible i

October Nor'easter Moves Up the Atlantic Coast with Wind & Storms

A low-pressure system that has tracked up the

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forms in the Atlantic

The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season has thus f

La Niña Advisory Issued, Potential Impacts to Winter Precip & Springtime Tornadoes

La Niña was observed in September, leading to

Upgraded North Dakota Tornado Ends EF-5 Drought

The National Weather Service in Grand Forks,

Eastern Pacific: Raymond Targets Baja California, Desert Southwest with Downpours

The Eastern Pacific has had a fairly average