Kevin Schneider

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El Niño has been smothering tropical waves in the Atlantic this summer, with three named storms to date but only 16% of average cyclone energy! This doesn't mean the rest of the season will be just as quiet, however, as 66% of all hurricane activity in the Atlantic occurs between August 20th and October 10th.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-23 032445-1787477089898.png">Right on cue, an area of potential development is being watched in the Atlantic Basin. A tropical wave, Invest 96L, has moved off of Africa and is now in the far eastern Atlantic. In the days ahead, it may have a better chance to get its act together this week as it moves across the MDR (main development region) in the Atlantic, between Africa and the Caribbean. There is a medium chance for development right now.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-26 082923-1787754577131.png">The two primary global forecast models are showing development late in the week. Models are showing some decent confidence in the overall outcome. Both the intensity and the placement being similar gives forecasters a little more confidence in what we're seeing.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-26 083010-1787754624501.png">Once we get into the weekend, however, most models have it encountering large amounts of shear, tearing it apart. Still, stay tuned...this is the time of the year when the Atlantic Waters can get a little rowdy. The next system to gain tropical storm status in the Atlantic will be named Dolly.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-22 081921-1787408368849.png">

Patrick Crawford

Atlantic Tropics: Chance of Development in the MDR

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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High pressure has returned to the Southwest. Extreme Heat Warnings (in pink) have been issued for cities including Los Angeles, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Tucson, and Yuma. Heat Advisories (in orange) have been issued across the Inland Empire of California.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-26 192300-1787793786105.png">We started the week with plenty of triple digits across the Southwest; even Los Angeles is expected to see triple digits over the next few days! Most of the Southwest, which is normally hot, will have many cities running above average.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-26 192316-1787793800854.png">There are Red Flag Warnings in place for parts of Southern California. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-26 192331-1787793821104.png">Stay tuned to WeatherNation for the latest.

Extreme Heat In Los Angeles and the Southwest

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A cold front that brought severe storms to the Midwest will keep moving east on Thursday. This cold front will smack into some unstable air over New England and likely generate some severe storms. Here is the very latest on what we are tracking here at WeatherNation.<h1>THURSDAY</h1>Severe storms will take over the Eastern U.S. on Thursday as the cold front moves east. All modes of severe weather are possible, but damaging winds are the likely severe threat.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/pic4-1787780569933.png">As the front closes in on the East Coast, the threats shift slightly. The severe threat will continue - in the form of damaging winds primarily - but flash flooding is a growing concern.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/2026-08-26 09-50-43-1787759467933.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>What's of some concern is the fact that rain starts early and is slow to back off in the evening. And it looks like it will be coming down at a decent clip, too. Some areas could pick up more than 3-4 inches of rain, more than enough to lead to flooding by the evening commute.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-26 095257-1787759591325.jpg">We will have more updates on this risk all day on Thursday, so make sure to tune in to WeatherNation for the latest on Thursday's severe storm threat.

Front Brings Severe Weather & Flood Threat East

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During El Nino, temperatures across the Eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer, or above normal. For the hurricane season, this means an increase in tropical activity across the Eastern Pacific.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-26 160007-1787781615977.png">These warmer sea surface temperatures also mean an increase in shark activity for Southern California beaches. Meteorologist Taban Sharifi spoke to Dr. Christopher Lowe, professor of marine biology and director of the Shark Lab at California State University, Long Beach on how El Nino brings changes to marine life along the coast.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/1FcXy4BQcgA" start="0"></iframe></div>As the waters continue to warm through the Fall, Dr. Lowe talked about the changing species that will be seen across the Southern California waters that are not typically there. This includes hammerhead sharks, whale sharks, and even manta rays. This also includes white sharks. The water farther south will get too warm for the white sharks, that are normally off the Baha of California, and they will begin to push north. Dr. Lowe said, "It's going to push those juvenile white sharks that are normally in Mexico into Southern California waters." This is something they have already started to see happen during July and August of this year, and the numbers of these sharks are increasing. Dr. Lowe said the sharks could reach as far north as Santa Cruz, CA.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-26 155905-1787784580682.png">There's a sweet spot for water temperatures for these sharks that sits between 64°-72°. Above 82° is when sharks begin to move north. Currently, water temperatures in the Eastern Pacific are significantly warmer than that 82° threshold.A message to beach goers: "Believe it or not, having all those white sharks off that beach might actually keep people safer. Because they are eating sting rays, there are fewer sting rays that might hurt people," said Dr. Lowe.Watch the full interview for more on how close these sharks get to the coastline and how scientists track their behavior.

El Nino Pushes Sharks into Southern California Beaches

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<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2092613037643665456" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2092613037643665456"></div>Strong storms came through the plains on Tuesday. Damaging winds and large hail were reported from the Front Range to the Panhandle of Texas. Clayton, NM saw a wind gust of 84 mph! The severe threat continues into the next few days as upslope flow fires up more troublesome storms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-26 083931-1787755190820.png">Some storms will be capable of damaging winds and massive hail, a threat familiar on the Front Range. Generally, the hail threat will exist as storms initially fire but turn into a wind producer later in its life in the evening hours.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-26 084054-1787755272358.png"><h2>Forecast Timing</h2>New development will be spread across the high country and into the plains as we run into more daytime heating and Gulf humidity. Along the Front Range, upslope flow combined with daytime heating will help storms thrive. Once the sun sets, storms will die down for a quieter start to Thursday. However, we expect additional severe storm chances Thursday afternoon from Pueblo, CO to Rapid City, SD. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/sw bams-1787772889967.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-26 133642-1787773025006.png">

Significant Winds and Hail Possible for the Plains

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A wildfire broke out in the Lone Star State on Monday and has quickly torched 80,000+ acres in the past 2 days. Hot weather has dried out fuels in the area, making explosive fire growth possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-26 083253-1787754786896.png">Crews in the area are prioritizing lives and structures as of Tuesday morning, urging folks in Jack and Palo Pinto Counties to get out of the way of this blaze.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2092612395516457434" src="https://x.com/AllHazardsTFS/status/2092612395516457434"></div> Temperatures soaring to nearly 110° both Sunday and Monday have not helped matters recently.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-26 083325-1787754818989.png">Fire weather will be at the forefront until cooler or wet weather can make a return. However, the strong area of high pressure baking many in the south doesn't look to budge in the foreseeable future. Temperatures will remain above average, and the feels-like temperature will dig into the 100s for cities like Houston this week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-26 083603-1787754976552.png">An additional hazard in central Texas will be wildfire smoke. Poor air quality and low visibility will impact people driving and spending time outside. Residents report being able to see and smell it from Fort Worth.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2092674250293350485" src="https://x.com/NWSFortWorth/status/2092674250293350485"></div>

Administrator

Ross Fire Burning West of Fort Worth

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<h1>ISELLE</h1>Tropical Storm Julio formed Tuesday morning in the Eastern Pacific and was absorbed by Iselle Tuesday evening. Iselle has weakened a touch but still remains a tropical storm. Wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and a drier air mass will likely weaken Iselle and turn it post-tropical before Thursday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-26 145626-1787777795808.png">The only tangible effect from Iselle could be the angry sea it churns up. Waves from these systems could make it far enough north to impact the coast of southern California. Interests there should watch for a higher rip current risk through the end of the week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-26 135212-1787773955759.png">With multiple other areas of development, we expect additional storms to come off the factory line and move west and northwest into the Pacific. El Niño is traditionally very active for the Pacific basin, and this year has proved it. Lala continues as a Tropical Storm northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. Moke is post-tropical and fizzling out.<h1>OTHER SUSPECT AREAS</h1>The most likely area to earn a name off of the Eastern Pacific list would be Invest 93-E. Thunderstorm activity ramped up Tuesday night and looks like a much healthier wave.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-26 082350-1787754289778.png">Taken with a grain of salt, the GFS model has a small gathering developing in the Pacific on Saturday and Sunday. After dissolving Iselle, we could have 4 different areas loitering together this weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-26 082606-1787754438851.png">Click here for more on what is happening in the Atlantic Basin:<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/atlantic-tropics-watching-several-areas-strong-tropical-wave-next-week"> Atlantic Tropics.</a>

Multiple Areas to watch in the Pacific Basin

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According to the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laborary (<a href="https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/#currentConditions" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GLERL</a>), total ice coverage across the Great Lakes is at 29.1%.

<img class=" wp-image-87082" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/02/glsea_cur.png" alt="" width="625" height="488" /> Ice coverage across the Great Lakes as of February 2nd, 2018.

A this point last year, there was around 8% of ice coverage.

All of the Great Lakes have some amount of ice on them. Here's the break down for each lake:

Lake Superior: 21.8%

Lake Michigan: 17.08%

Lake Huron: 44.76%

Lake Erie: 59.07%

Lake Ontario: 9.53%

Over the next few weeks its likely that more ice will form on the lakes as a cold and snowy pattern is expected across the Upper Midwest into the Northeast.

&nbsp;

For WeatherNation, I am <a href="http://www.twitter.com/MarcusDWalter" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Meteorologist Marcus Walter</a>.

(Almost) Weekly Check on Ice Coverage Across Great Lakes

Atlantic Tropics: Chance of Development in the MDR

El Niño has been smothering tropical waves in

Extreme Heat In Los Angeles and the Southwest

High pressure has returned to the Southwest.

Front Brings Severe Weather & Flood Threat East

A cold front that brought severe storms to th

El Nino Pushes Sharks into Southern California Beaches

During El Nino, temperatures across the Easte

Significant Winds and Hail Possible for the Plains

Strong storms came through the plains on Tues

Ross Fire Burning West of Fort Worth

A wildfire broke out in the Lone Star State o

Multiple Areas to watch in the Pacific Basin

ISELLETropical Storm Julio formed Tuesday mor