WeatherNation Meteorologists

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GULF - An area of low pressure located over the Gulf has continued to become more well-defined, increasing the chance of tropical formation to now 70% over the next day or so. A short-lived tropical depression or storm is likely to form before the low reaches the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coast on Tuesday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 200652-1788142040103.png">Forecast models have now picked up on the rain possibility from this potential tropical system, we are currently watching for some heavy Houston rain on Tuesday.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/08-30 gulfy-1788142168170.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Tropical Storm Dolly formed in the Atlantic on Thursday. Former Invest 96-L was able to create a clearly defined center of circulation Thursday morning with robust convection. The system encountered strong winds which broke the system apart. The remnants have a low chance of developing again, but will still bring heavy rain to the Caribbean and the Bahamas in the days ahead.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/gfs carib-1788119481261.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Puerto Rico has seen dire drought conditions and is in desperate need of rain. Still, with dry ground and hilly terrain, flash flooding will be a threat. Interests in the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should stay updated on the forecast in the coming days.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 135132-1788119498153.png">El Niño has been smothering tropical waves in the Atlantic this summer, with four named storms to date but only 11% of average cyclone energy!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 061729-1788092360286.jpg">This doesn't mean the rest of the season will be just as quiet, however, as 66% of all hurricane activity in the Atlantic occurs between August 20th and October 10th. The climatological peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season is September 10.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-27 090839-1787843332378.png">

Alana Cameron

Chances of Development Increasing in the Gulf

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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Wash. Rinse. Repeat. Each week there's been a storm system that ridges from the Plains into the northeast, and we've got another one headed our way. Each wave has brought severe chances and renewed flooding concerns - this one's not much different.<h1>Rainfall &amp; Flooding</h1>Repeated rounds of storms have led to swollen riverways in areas around the Midwest, like Indiana, in the past week. This week, the concern is more centered around flash flooding, when it simply rains too hard for too long. Portions of New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey look to see some of the heavier rain totals over the next few days.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 154008-1788126012524.png"><h1>Severe Storms</h1>As these systems dive southeast out of the Great Lakes, they will have a few ingredients to turn storms severe, potentially. Right now, the timing looks a little later than usual for severe weather events. Generally favoring the afternoon and evening on Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday. However, data continues to point more toward the early overnight hours, with storms holding together even into daybreak. With a slow-moving system, this is subject to change, so keep up with the latest forecast over the next few days.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/FRS-1788142442976.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The Storm Prediction Center has even issued outlooks for severe weather starting Tuesday with a SLIGHT (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe storms across New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 134950-1788119396715.png">On Wednesday and Thursday there are outlooks for severe weather across Washington D.C., through New York City and Pittsburgh, PA.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 114014-1788111915809.png">With all of the rain in recent weeks, trees will have an easier time toppling. So even if winds don't quite reach the severe threshold, we are still expecting pretty widespread damage.

Jackie Brown

Next System Lining Up in the Northeast

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<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2093859694444155210" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2093859694444155210"></div>It has been an active summer for portions of the Northern Plains, with several rounds of severe weather even during the last week. Another low will spur additional severe weather threats through Wednesday. Damaging winds and large hail will be the biggest threats. The tornado threat will be isolated, but possible. Daytime heating will provide instability, with afternoons and evenings offering the best chance of severe storms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/nedass-1788142725660.png">High-based thunderstorms are possible as a trough moves from the Rockies into the Plains. Overnight, anything that does develop can be strong to severe, and we have continued days of severe. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/FSSAAAA-1788142578848.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Most will see around a quarter of an inch or less of rain, but there will be localized heavier rainfall in the storms that develop over the next few days.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 113923-1788111568421.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 113908-1788111556704.png">For the latest updates on these storms, make sure to tune into the central regional forecast:30 past the hour.

Days of Severe Weather For The Plains

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The Pacific hurricane season is showing no signs of slowing down as multiple tropical systems churn across the basin, with warm ocean temperatures and a strengthening El Niño helping create favorable conditions for development.Hurricane Karina (now a major hurricane) and Tropical Storm Lowell are among the latest systems to form over the open Pacific. Both storms are forecast to strengthen as they remain over warm water. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 195538-1788141718082.png">The active pattern may not end with the current systems. There is another area southwest of Mexico that could form into a tropical depression by mid to late week. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to become favorable for additional organization, giving the disturbance a high chance of tropical development over the next several days. Behind Karina and Lowell, an area of investigation Invest 95E is brewing and could spell trouble for southern California.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/0830-1788125622147.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The National Hurricane Center is investigating this potential low, Invest 95E, and some models are favoring the potential for impacts to the southwestern United States but it is still too far for us to confidently say.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 200114-1788141801539.png"><h1>El Niño Helping Fuel Pacific Activity</h1>The surge in tropical activity comes as El Niño continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 070106-1788094892764.png">This year’s El Niño has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.While the Pacific remains crowded with tropical systems, many of the current storms are expected to remain over open water. Still, with several additional areas being monitored, the active stretch of the 2026 Pacific hurricane season is far from over.Click here for more on what is happening in the Atlantic Basin:<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/atlantic-tropics-watching-several-areas-strong-tropical-wave-next-week"> Atlantic Tropics.</a>

El Niño Powers a Party in the Pacific

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<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2093881392803299496" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2093881392803299496"></div>Ready for some fall-like temperatures? Some residents in the Northwest will get a taste of autumn as a cold trough of low pressure digs into the region from Canada this weekend. Another cold trough is expected in the area next week as well!<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/west troughies-1788052370992.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video> Farther south, the cooler air will be clashing with the warmth of summer, leading to energy for strong storms and heavy downpours. Many areas around the Four Corners and Rockies will have potential to see 1-3 inches of rain by the end of the day on Tuesday.<h1>Rain, Flood, &amp; Severe</h1>Pacific moisture will inundate the region, with days of heavy downpours for areas around the Four Corners. 1-4 inches of rain are expected in the favored locations, with scattered flash flooding possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 153641-1788125806448.png">Flood outlooks are elevated through the next few days across the Four Corners. Portions of Utah are under moderate flood outlooks for Monday.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/excessive rainsssl-1788142881431.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Drought Relief</h1>September is favored for above-average precipitation across a majority of the Western United States. This would be a great way to end a solid monsoon season, which runs through the end of the month.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-29 075355-1788011658558.png">With more rain on the way, drought improvement is likely for some areas, while drought removal is even possible in others. Keep doing your rain dance (take video and tag us if you do!).<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-29 075403-1788011667031.png">

Western U.S. Enters a Rainier Pattern

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During El Nino, temperatures across the Eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer, or above normal. For the hurricane season, this means an increase in tropical activity across the Eastern Pacific.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-26 160007-1787781615977.png">These warmer sea surface temperatures also mean an increase in shark activity for Southern California beaches. Meteorologist Taban Sharifi spoke to Dr. Christopher Lowe, professor of marine biology and director of the Shark Lab at California State University, Long Beach on how El Nino brings changes to marine life along the coast.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/1FcXy4BQcgA" start="0"></iframe></div>As the waters continue to warm through the Fall, Dr. Lowe talked about the changing species that will be seen across the Southern California waters that are not typically there. This includes hammerhead sharks, whale sharks, and even manta rays. This also includes white sharks. The water farther south will get too warm for the white sharks, that are normally off the Baha of California, and they will begin to push north. Dr. Lowe said, "It's going to push those juvenile white sharks that are normally in Mexico into Southern California waters." This is something they have already started to see happen during July and August of this year, and the numbers of these sharks are increasing. Dr. Lowe said the sharks could reach as far north as Santa Cruz, CA.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-26 155905-1787784580682.png">There's a sweet spot for water temperatures for these sharks that sits between 64°-72°. Above 82° is when sharks begin to move north. Currently, water temperatures in the Eastern Pacific are significantly warmer than that 82° threshold.A message to beach goers: "Believe it or not, having all those white sharks off that beach might actually keep people safer. Because they are eating sting rays, there are fewer sting rays that might hurt people," said Dr. Lowe.Watch the full interview for more on how close these sharks get to the coastline and how scientists track their behavior.

Tracey Anthony

El Nino Pushes Sharks into Southern California Beaches

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

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High pressure continues to dominate the Southwest. Extreme Heat Warnings (in pink) still remain in place for cities including Phoenix, Tucson, Yuma, and the Coachella Valley. Heat Advisories (in orange) also remain in place through tonight across the California Coast including Los Angeles and San Diego.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-29 124202-1788028928893.png">Most of the Southwest, which is normally hot, will have many cities running above average and breaking records through tonight.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-29 124216-1788028995569.png">By tomorrow, we will start to feel the impacts of the trough that is digging into the PNW and the cooler air associated with it. Los Angeles will see temperatures drop down to the mid to low 80s by midweek.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-29 124327-1788029016854.png">Stay tuned to WeatherNation for the latest.

Kevin Schneider

Southwest Heatwave Breaking Down

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According to the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laborary (<a href="https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/#currentConditions" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GLERL</a>), total ice coverage across the Great Lakes is at 29.1%.

<img class=" wp-image-87082" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/02/glsea_cur.png" alt="" width="625" height="488" /> Ice coverage across the Great Lakes as of February 2nd, 2018.

A this point last year, there was around 8% of ice coverage.

All of the Great Lakes have some amount of ice on them. Here's the break down for each lake:

Lake Superior: 21.8%

Lake Michigan: 17.08%

Lake Huron: 44.76%

Lake Erie: 59.07%

Lake Ontario: 9.53%

Over the next few weeks its likely that more ice will form on the lakes as a cold and snowy pattern is expected across the Upper Midwest into the Northeast.

&nbsp;

For WeatherNation, I am <a href="http://www.twitter.com/MarcusDWalter" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Meteorologist Marcus Walter</a>.

(Almost) Weekly Check on Ice Coverage Across Great Lakes

Chances of Development Increasing in the Gulf

GULF - An area of low pressure located over

Next System Lining Up in the Northeast

Wash. Rinse. Repeat. Each week there's been a

Days of Severe Weather For The Plains

It has been an active summer for portions of

El Niño Powers a Party in the Pacific

The Pacific hurricane season is showing no si

Western U.S. Enters a Rainier Pattern

Ready for some fall-like temperatures? Some r

El Nino Pushes Sharks into Southern California Beaches

During El Nino, temperatures across the Easte

Southwest Heatwave Breaking Down

High pressure continues to dominate the South