Brittany Lockley

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Louisville is gearing up for the 151st Kentucky Derby this Saturday at Churchill Downs, but weather conditions leading up to the big race could put a damper on some of the festivities.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot 2025-04-30 050024-1746010833872.png">Unsettled Weather Ahead of the Derby&nbsp;A series of popular events, including Winsday on Wednesday, Thurby on Thursday, and the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, are set to draw large crowds. However, showers and thunderstorms are expected to move through the area throughout the week, potentially impacting plans.&nbsp;<ul><li>Wednesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially in the afternoon.&nbsp;</li></ul><ul><li>Thursday and Friday: Rain chances remain elevated, with Friday’s Kentucky Oaks race particularly at risk for wet weather disruptions.&nbsp;<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/ky-1746068339836.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video></li></ul>Derby Day Outlook: A Break in the Clouds&nbsp;Fortunately, the forecast improves as we head into Saturday. While some lingering showers may still be around in the morning, forecasters expect any rain to clear out by midday. This should allow time for the Churchill Downs track to begin drying out ahead of the Derby’s scheduled post time at 6:57 p.m. ET.&nbsp;Still, after a soggy week, conditions underfoot are unlikely to be ideal. Do not expect the fast track surface seen in recent years—this year could see slower, wetter conditions like 2019, when a "sloppy" track followed light rainfall, or even 2018, which saw more than 3 inches of rain on race day.&nbsp;Cooler Temperatures in the Mix&nbsp;Behind the departing rain, cooler air will settle in. Saturday's highs are expected to stay in the 60s, a touch below average for early May but comfortable for racegoers dressed for the occasion.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot 2025-04-30 205908-1746068359193.png">Heading to Churchill Downs this week? Pack an umbrella and prepare for changing conditions. While Derby Day looks mostly dry, the lead-up could be a wet one.Now the fun part, how will this weather affect the horses? From blazing sunshine to torrential rain, the conditions on Derby Day can significantly influence the race's outcome and the experience for horses, jockeys, trainers, and fans alike 🏇🏇 Precipitation: Track conditions are the most immediate and noticeable way weather affects the Derby. Rain can quickly turn the usually fast dirt track into a sloppy or muddy surface, altering the performance of certain horses and jockeys. Some horses, known as “mudders,” thrive in wet conditions, while others struggle. For instance, in the rain-soaked 2019 Derby, the muddy track played a role in a dramatic finish that included the controversial disqualification of Maximum Security. Handicappers and bettors pay close attention to forecasts, knowing that a change in weather could shift the odds significantly.🏇 Temperature is another critical factor. A warm &amp; humid race day can drain a horse's stamina, especially those not acclimated to the heat and humidity. Trainers often adjust their preparation and hydration strategies depending on the expected weather. Cooler temperatures, on the other hand, may benefit certain horses with more endurance and less speed.🏇 Wind also plays a subtle but real role in racing dynamics. A strong headwind down the backstretch can tire front-running horses earlier than expected, while a tailwind might benefit late closers. Though less obvious than mud or rain, wind direction and speed can change race strategies and even alter the pace of the race.In a race where every fraction of a second matters, weather isn’t just a background variable—it’s a potential game-changer. Whether the sun is shining or rain is pouring, the conditions on Derby Day can leave a lasting imprint!

Patrick Crawford

Rainy Forecast Could Disrupt Kentucky Derby Week Events

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

Alana Cameron

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ARKLATEX - The forecast remains wet in the southern plains through Thursday. The area is still recovering from the heavy rain last weekend. Parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas have seen 24-hour rainfall totals over half a foot.Oklahoma City was under a Flash Flood Warning Tuesday AM with reports of creeks overflowing and basements flooding.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1917692940794880495" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1917692940794880495"></div>Dallas-Fort Worth was also under a flash flood warning on Wednesday. The National Weather Service has issued a FLOOD WATCH into Thursday morning across portions of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Kansas, and Texas (above).<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot 2025-04-30 205122-1746067890811.png">Models continue to push heavy rainfall into north Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and Arkansas through the end of the week. An additional 2-4" of rainfall will be possible through the weekend, with the heaviest focused on the ArkLaTex.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot 2025-04-30 205154-1746067923788.png">A moderate risk means numerous flash flooding events with significant impacts are possible. Many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. The Dallas, TX metro will be under the moderate risk throughout Thursday morning. Remember the phrase, "turn around, don't drown." Driving through flooded waters is extremely dangerous.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot 2025-04-30 173915-1746056406880.png">Many areas have already seen significant rainfall. These locations will be more susceptible to flooding. Please listen to any flash flood warning that is issued for your area and seek higher ground immediately.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot 2025-04-30 044641-1746010008579.png">In Oklahoma City, now that April has come to a close, Wednesday's rainfall totals have bumped the city up to having the wettest April on record.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot 2025-04-30 174019-1746056465604.png">For more details, be sure to join us on WeatherNation!

Flooding Threat Continues in Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and More

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OHIO VALLEY - After a very stormy and wet month of April in the Ohio Valley, we're starting off May active as well. Some folks across the Ohio Valley and northeast are still without power from our early week storms as we brace for our next round of severe weather.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot 2025-04-30 144809-1746046110151.png">As we head into Thursday and Friday, severe storms will move back into the Ohio Valley and Northeastern U.S. as a frontal boundary triggers storms. On Thursday, the risk for western New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Indiana, and Kentucky is SLIGHT (level 2 out of 5).<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot 2025-04-30 144025-1746045779298.png">The main hazards for Thursday along the warm front will be large hail and damaging winds. By Friday, the risk for severe thunderstorms levels down to MARGINAL (level 1 out of 5) for some of the same areas as the tail end of the cold front finally pushes through.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot 2025-04-30 144035-1746045872977.png">Due to ongoing convection in these areas from Wednesday and Thursday, it has only warranted a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms because the atmosphere remains a little bit more stable in these areas.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/04-30_rnc rne 18z-1746068012527.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Storms Head Back to the Ohio Valley and Northeast

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Originally born in Spokane, Washington,  Jackie's Dad was in the Air Force which led her to a life of travel. She has lived in Wichita, Okinawa, Japan, Baltimore, New Jersey, Indiana and South Carolina.  After graduating from Kadena High School, in Okinawa Japan, she got a full basketball scholarship to Coppin State College. On the court she was a 4-year starter and reached over 1000 points in her basketball career. She was also named Athlete of the Year for the whole university in 2002. Off the court, she earned a degree in Broadcast Production/English.

After college, she landed a job as a radio personality. Jackie went on to have a successful career for 12 years working at KXLY broadcast center. While on the radio, she decided to change career. Jackie went back to school, graduating from the Mississippi State Meteorology Broadcast Program. From snow, to tornadoes, to hurricanes, she has had experience forecasting all these events.

Jackie Brown

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A frontal boundary stretched across half of the U.S. will continue to bring episodes of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain as it stalls out. The Central U.S. will get the brunt of the severe weather through Thursday, before shifting into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes by Friday. Hail has been impactful in Texas over the last few days, and today was no different. Hail from 1.50" to 2.00" was produced in severe storms today.SEVERE THREATStorms are still ongoing across the southern plains, and the severe threat will remain in place through Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) through the overnight hours across portions of Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Tennessee. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary concerns.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot 2025-04-30 205510-1746068129495.png">More generally, there is a 2-10% risk of tornadoes across Texas, through Arkansas, and through southern Illinois and Indiana. Storms will remain active overnight into Arkansas and Tennessee, and more storms will develop again on Thursday as the frontal boundary lingers.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/JFJFJFJFJFJFJFJF-1746060714414.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>By Thursday the storms will reach the Great Lakes and the Northeast. While the severe threat is expected to lessen compared to earlier in the week, some embedded strong storms may still occur, particularly in areas where instability persists. A Slight risk is issued for Thursday (level 2 out of 5). The threats for Thursday include gusty winds, localized heavy rainfall, and a hail risk.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot 2025-04-30 135652-1746043017685.png">The combination of repeated rounds of thunderstorms, especially earlier in the week, has left soils saturated in portions of eastern Oklahoma, northeast Texas, and western Arkansas. Though the severe threat shifts east, residual flooding concerns may continue into Thursday in these areas before drying out.&nbsp;For the latest information tune into WeatherNation.&nbsp;

Severe Weather Threat Shifts East Overnight & Thursday

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Chris Tomer

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A cold front and area of low pressure slide through Colorado 4/30 into 5/1. Rain and snow are likely.<h1>How Much Accumulation?</h1>Rain hits Denver and the Front Range between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning. Up to six inches of snow is possible above 9,000ft.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/tomer co rain snow-1746059165407.jpg">Timing</h1><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/tomer west futurecast-1746059278789.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Closing Dates</h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/tomer ski closing dates-1745778957875.jpg">Enjoy the slopes while you can! Stay with WeatherNation for the latest.

Rain For Denver, Snow For The Mountains

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Kevin Schneider

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Fire weather concerns have been all too common in the northeast this month. The Jones Road Fire has burned over 15,000 acres but the containment has crept up to 75%<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1916917497808167300" src="https://x.com/njdepforestfire/status/1916917497808167300"></div>The winds will kick up again this afternoon, so any additional grass fire that ignites could spread quickly.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot 2025-04-29 124943-1745958299557.png">As dry as it is, we're only waiting on some wind to stir up fire concerns. Today, the winds will gust to 30 mph. Another soaking rain will go a long way in helping out. Rain that comes without severe chances would be niceRelated Article: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/severe-storms-possible-from-new-york-to-texas-today">Severe Storms Threaten the Northeast Today</a>But wait! There's moreAll of that unsettled weather in the southern plains will pull into the northeast later this week, so keep the rain jacket close by!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot 2025-04-29 073918-1745934007429.png">Thursday and Friday look to be the wettest from the Ohio River Valley to the New England states. While the severe threat appears pretty limited at this time, with a MARGINAL risk for severe storms on Thursday, the flooding threat will move in too.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot 2025-04-29 073934-1745934078262.png">While it might ruin some plans outside toward the end of the week, the Kentucky Derby is looking dry this weekend!<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/2025-04-29 07-39-48-1745934151361.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Rain This Week Douses Fire Concerns Today

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A strong area of low pressure has emerged from the Rockies, which has prompted a MODERATE (level 4 out of 5) risk overnight. EF-2+ intensity tornadoes and 2-inch diameter hail (or larger) are possible.CAUGHT ON CAMERA: Our field correspondent Erik Fox was in the Sand Hills of Nebraska, where a storm cycled for hours on Sunday night, producing the spotting of a tornado.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1916681281515184498" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1916681281515184498"></div><h1>Overnight - Hazards and Timing</h1>The Storm Prediction Center has issued a MODERATE (level 4 out of 5) risk for severe storms in portions of the Upper Midwest and Upper Mississippi Valley. Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms remain possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot 2025-04-28 212044-1745896851475.png">Strong winds and massive hail remain possible, but the tornado threat will also be quite high for portions of the Upper-Midwest, thanks to increased wind shear near the upper-level low. This includes the potential for significant tornadoes in the Upper-Midwest, meaning we could see violent tornadoes that last for a long duration. These tornadoes should be taken very seriously, as they'll have the potential to produce winds over 110 mph (EF-2 or greater).<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot 2025-04-28 212227-1745896953253.png">Storms have developed and will continue into the overnight hours.. Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/bust-1745897203666.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Tuesday - Hazards and Timing</h1>Scattered severe storms will continue to move east on Tuesday along the front, with severe storms possible from Vermont to Texas! There are two areas of an ENHANCED risk (level 3 out of 5) on Tuesday. Portions of the northeast, including Pittsburgh, PA and western New York, as well as west Texas and into Texoma.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/1-1745863825014.png">There is still a bit of uncertainty on the forecast for Tuesday morning, pending how overnight convection from Monday behaves. The most likely scenario will be storms continuing along the same boundary throughout the day, and as the atmosphere becomes more unstable during peak heating, thunderstorms will become more dangerous.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/tuesvr-1745897459682.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Flooding</h1>Heavy rain will accompany storms, with isolated flash flooding possible. Before storms hit, review your severe weather preparedness, including knowing where to go in case of a tornado or flood.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot 2025-04-28 213111-1745897482161.png">

Dave Holder

Dangerous Storms Moving Across the Upper Midwest Overnight

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[<a href="https://cpo.noaa.gov/News/News-Article/ArtMID/6226/ArticleID/1845/Atmospheric-rivers-drive-western-US-flood-damages-says-RISA-funded-study" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NOAA</a> by <a href="https://cpo.noaa.gov/News/News-Article/PID/6226/authorid/36/AuthorName/Alison-Stevens">Alison Stevens</a>]   New research recently published in <a href="https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/5/12/eaax4631.full.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Science Advances</a> found that <a href="http://bit.ly/2j5naGw">atmospheric rivers</a> accounted for 84% of flood damages, or $42.6 billion, across the western United States from 1978-2017. Supported by NOAA's Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) and co-authored by <a href="https://cpo.noaa.gov/Meet-the-Divisions/Climate-and-Societal-Interactions/RISA/RISA-Teams/CNAP#739083-risa-teams">California-Nevada RISA</a> PI Alexander Gershunov, the study analyzed 40 years of data from the National Flood Insurance Program to quantify atmospheric rivers’ economic impacts.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-70827" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2017/01/Atmospheric-River.jpg" alt="" width="3248" height="2229" />

 Not only were atmospheric rivers the primary driver across all 11 states, with annual average damages of $1.1 billion, but they also caused over 95% and even exceeded 99% of flood damages in some coastal areas of northern California and the Pacific Northwest. 

In addition, the authors used a recently developed atmospheric rivers intensity and duration scale varying from 1 (weak) to 5 (exceptional) to assess how flood damages change with each category. They found that each increase in the atmospheric intensity and duration scale corresponds to a roughly 10-fold increase in flood damages. Flood damages from atmospheric rivers are expected to increase in the face of rising population, increased development, and climate change.

Atmospheric Rivers Drive Western U.S. Flood Damages

Rainy Forecast Could Disrupt Kentucky Derby Week Events

Louisville is gearing up for the 151st Kentuc

Flooding Threat Continues in Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and More

ARKLATEX - The forecast remains wet in the so

Storms Head Back to the Ohio Valley and Northeast

OHIO VALLEY - After a very stormy and wet mon

Severe Weather Threat Shifts East Overnight & Thursday

A frontal boundary stretched across half of t

Rain For Denver, Snow For The Mountains

A cold front and area of low pressure slide t

Rain This Week Douses Fire Concerns Today

Fire weather concerns have been all too commo

Dangerous Storms Moving Across the Upper Midwest Overnight

A strong area of low pressure has emerged fro