The West Coast is hogging the active weather in the early part of the week, but it won't last forever. A wave moving onshore in the coming days will turn into another chance for severe storms later this week. But there could be one big thing missing...

SETUP

The disturbance in question will ripple through the Rocky Mountains, emerging sometime Thursday. That's not the issue-the chunk of energy is more than enough to cause trouble. Let's look at the other ingredients

MOISTURE & INSTABILITY

As the system presses in from the west, a front will drive through some dew points well into the 50's and some 60's. That should be plenty of moisture to work with. That will provide ample unstable air to power severe chances.

So if it's all systems go, why are some models struggling to pop storms? Check out the latest run of our in-house model, which is hesitant to develop storms.

So what gives? This particular model limits the unstable air by the afternoon and pushes through the front early. If that happens, the severe threat would likely be limited. However, enough other models slow down the front, and develop more unstable air by Thursday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center is already monitoring an area around Indianapolis, St. Louis, and Lexington.