Kevin Schneider

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Heads up, Texas! The National Hurricane Center has been increasing the chances of tropical development across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche (just to the south). As of Sunday morning, the chance of development is up to 80%. The next name up on the Atlantic list is Francine. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Francine is next-1725813887281.png">A tropical wave is moving into the Bay of Campeche, where it will overtake another area of spin in the western Gulf of Mexico. A tropical depression or tropical storm could form in the far western Gulf as it drifts north. Regardless of it's status, heavy rain and flooding are expected from Texas to Louisiana. This is a system residents of the western Gulf of Mexico should watch carefully. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/WPC 1-5-1725813332968.png">The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is already expecting flooding Monday through Wednesday, mostly for areas bordering the Gulf. How much this system can develop will depend greatly on it's track, with a stronger storm favored if the center of the low can remain over the warm Gulf water. The Baron Model strengthens this system before moving it toward coastal Texas and Louisiana around the middle of the week. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-08 10-36-56-1725813462217.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Forecast models have a decent handle on the path of this system, but intensity is very much up in the air. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/skettis-1725813621865.png">There are other areas to monitor, in the Atlantic AND the Pacific Basins. Read more about those here: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/atlantic-basin-becoming-active-again">Tropics Heating Up</a>

91L Expected to Become Tropical Depression

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RECORD COLD - Cool overnights are upcoming as refreshingly Fall-like air arrives across the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, Great Lakes, and Appalachians. In fact, there are several potential record-cold temperatures forecast Sunday and Monday mornings! Here is a look at the low temperatures tonight into Monday morning.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Tonights lows-1725794625730.jpg">Low temperatures will be at or below-average through Tuesday morning for most cities across the East. The difference between the cool air blowing over some warmer lake waters will fire up more rain chances Sunday and Monday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/lake effect setup-1725815363503.png">The rain chances are expected to be more isolated to end the weekend, but could pack a punch on Monday. Some will be capable of producing damaging straight-line winds, especially in the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted areas of upstate New York with the best chance.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-08 11-10-30-1725815460308.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Once the rain clears out, temperatures will start to rebound near the middle of the week. Highs will get back to normal values for early September for many, so take advantage of the cooler air while it's around!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/2-1725745467994.png">Check back with us to find out which weather will be where in your East Regional Forecast, at :10 past every hour.

Chilly Air Spurs Severe Threat in the Northeast

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Meteorologist Jesse Kelley is excited to join the talented staff at Weather Nation. Jesse spent most of his childhood in Birmingham, Alabama. The state of Alabama is prone to seeing various types of weather from severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and winter weather. For college, Jesse attended the University of South Alabama where he received his degree in Broadcast Meteorology along with minors in Math and Geography. From Alabama, Jesse started his broadcast television working three years at KAVU-TV in Victoria. Recently, he finished a stint in Shreveport, LA. Jesse and his wife are looking forward to making the Rocky Mountains and Colorado home. If you would like to follow me, you can follow me on Twitter @JesseKelleywx and on Facebook at Meteorologist Jesse Kelley.

Jesse Kelley

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Dangerous heat continues to impact the Western U.S. this weekend! Saturday, more record highs fell across Southern California.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/1-1725764544556.png"> Excessive Heat Alerts are now in effect and will last through the weekend for portions of California and Arizona. Temperatures above 115° will be possible during this time.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Socal heat alerts-1725795226817.jpg">Many spots will be at least 10° above average. Make sure you are staying hydrated and planning for the heat! The coast will stay significantly cooler. For example, Downtown Los Angeles is expected to hit the upper 90s and potentially even triple digits, but the coast of LA, near Santa Monica, will sit 10° cooler.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/3 day forecast-1725795272032.jpg">That same ridge will affect the Pacific Northwest as well. Temperatures will soar 20° above normal for this time of the year. Heat alerts have been issued up the Willamette Valley into Washington State.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Screenshot 2024-09-07 075140-1725717108442.png">With the dry unstable air mass in place, fire concerns remain in place for the end of the work week. Be mindful of anything that could spark a flame or fire. There are lots of dry fuels at the surface with the extreme temperatures!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/1-1725764740685.png">Warmer than normal temperatures are expected to stick around in the long-range forecast for most of the inter-mountain west, however Seattle and Portland look to drop to more seasonal levels if not a little below average. This will be a nice break from the extreme heat. Many people in the Pacific Northwest do not have air-conditioning so these rounds of extreme heat can be extra dangerous. The Climate Prediction Center gives Seattle and Portland odds to be below average into the middle of September.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/1-1725679267717.png">More on your Western Regional Forecast can always be found :50 past the hour on WeatherNation.

Blistering Heat for the Western U.S.

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As we approach the climatological peak of the tropical season in the Atlantic basin, it's starting to look like it. The more pressing threat to land will be what develops in the Western Gulf in the next few days, read more about it here:<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/tropical-system-expected-to-develop-this-week">91L Swirling in the Gulf</a>There are a few other areas in the Atlantic to monitor, both with a medium chance to develop. One has been dubbed 92L by the National Hurricane Center, meaning they can run models for the system. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/92L sketties-1725814884004.png">This system is expected to stay north of the Leeward Islands, but could still bring impacts like some rain and high surf to the area. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Third wave-1725814891585.png">The other system behind 92L is given about the same odds to develop over the next week. The final wave we're keeping our eyes on is in the Eastern Pacific basin. While it appears this system could head out to see, some models suggest the moisture ends up in the Four Corners region late this week, enhancing the monsoonal thunderstorms we've gotten used to seeing.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Pacific orange-1725815099496.png">This week serves as a great reminder to sure up your hurricane plan just in case, with the climatological peak September 10.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Screenshot 2024-09-06 065219-1725627152702.png">We're a little under halfway through Hurricane Season, but the usual peak in activity is still a little under a week away! Stay with WeatherNation for the latest forecast on the tropics in the coming days!

Four Different Areas to Monitor in the Atlantic and Pacific

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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You'll have to dodge some weekend rain showers across some of our beautiful Southeast beaches. It won't rain the whole time, but it will be pretty cloudy across the central and eastern Gulf Coast region. Here's the latest.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Screenshot 2024-09-08 062621-1725798644325.png">Portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas could see flooding due to the heavy nature of the rain. Fortunately, there's not a high risk of flooding, but at least some ponding of water will be possible, along with minor flooding in isolated spots. A Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of Florida for Saturday!<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-08 06-31-11-1725798770623.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Expect heavy rain near the front, with the strongest storms and highest rainfall rates from the late morning through the afternoon, when flood potential will be peaking.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-08 06-31-30-1725798779736.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The second west low that lingers in the Gulf will move back to the north next week, bringing flood chances back to Texas and Louisiana.

Front Stalls in the Northern Gulf, Scattered Downpours Expected

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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Pumpkin spice lattes are back at coffee shops, and the Halloween décor has popped into retail locations, which means fall is on the horizon. As the summer season wraps up meteorologically on August 31st and astronomically on September 22nd, Mother Nature heralds in the tell-tale signs that Autumn has arrived with the changing colors of the leaves.&nbsp;&nbsp;But forecasting the changing leaves is a difficult task with variables that can sometimes be difficult to track. &nbsp;Weather plays an important role in the timing of when leaves will change, and while some locations have seasonal averages for peak foliage, nature has the final say on when the brilliant colors will arrive.&nbsp;WHY LEAVES CHANGE COLOR:&nbsp;The change in season sparks the transformation within deciduous trees. Deciduous trees typically have large, broad leaves and use flowers to reproduce; think your oak and maple types. These trees get the deciduous classification from the Latin word “dēciduus” which means “to fall” because of their tendency to drop their leaves once they reach maturity. &nbsp;Coniferous trees are your evergreen trees. These trees tend to have needles or scales and reproduce using cones. Coniferous trees typically hold their needles year-round as they help with water conservation for the tree to continue producing food for itself during the long winter and summer months.&nbsp;Because of the deciduous tree's leaf shape, they are the ones that transform into brilliant plumes of color as the days get shorter. &nbsp;So, what’s sparking the change?&nbsp;According to the Smithsonian, in fall, the days start getting shorter, meaning less sunlight, and in turn, cooler temperatures. This signals the trees to end their food making process. The chlorophyll within the leaves that helps conduct photosynthesis begins to fade allowing other chemicals within the leaves to shine. &nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/08/Screenshot 2024-08-28 135520-1724874946511.png">WHAT DO FORECASTS LOOK FOR:&nbsp;“The ideal weather we’re looking for is sunny, warm afternoons, and clear, cold nights,” said Evan Fisher, the founder of <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="http://ExploreFall.com">ExploreFall.com</a>. Too much drought or rain can vastly impact the colors produced by the trees. &nbsp;&nbsp;Heat can induce stress on the trees and allow them to show color early. Fisher said maples are susceptible to stress, such as a warm summer, like many along the Eastern Seaboard have seen in the 2024 summer season. &nbsp;“The hardest part of predicting fall color is accounting for the extremes.” Fisher elaborated. “[Drought] that can do crazy things to the fall color. If you have a little bit of drought it may delay the color. If you have a lot of drought, it may accelerate it. But we don’t really know exactly where that line is exactly in between. And sometimes the same goes for really moist conditions.” &nbsp;Another important factor for forecasting foliage is the amount of daylight too. “I like to say that daylight opens the door for fall colors. Once the days get short enough and the temperatures are cool enough, we start to see the colors progress,” Fisher said.&nbsp;You can learn more about forecasting fall colors below:&nbsp;<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GyZbO8Rh3Ug" start="0"></iframe></div>WHY ARE THEY DIFFERENT COLORS: &nbsp;The color each tree presents depends on what’s present in the leaves. According to the State University of New York’s College of Environmental Science and Forestry, xanthophyll and carotenes are already present in leaves as the green chlorophyll fades away. These pigments give leaves yellow and orange coloring, similar to how they color other plants such as carrots.&nbsp;Other chemical reactions can happen at the same time as the fading green color which produces anthocyanin pigments, which give leaves a reddish and purplish color. The Forestry Services of Scotland says if temperatures stay above freezing, more of these anthocyanin pigments are produced. If autumn remains sunny and dry, even more trees will begin to produce pigments to give even more red color. The process is slow though, which is why you sometimes see trees with a mix of greens, yellows, and reds all at once.&nbsp;WHY DO LEAVES DROP:&nbsp;In the spring, trees create little tubules between the leaves and the branches to transport nutrients back and forth between the leaves. As the fall creeps in, the tree begins producing a hormone that builds up a waxy layer between the leaf and the branch that reduces nutrient transportation. Eventually the leaf will be weak enough to be carried away by the wind, rain, or snow, said Michael Davidson on his Molecular Expressions website via Florida State University. &nbsp;By dropping their leaves, deciduous trees will spend less energy through the winter and converse moisture throughout their systems. The dropping of their leaves also prevents external stress that can occur when heavy snow weighs down a tree’s branches. &nbsp;

Getting You Ready for Fall Foliage 2024

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Summer of 1993, New England Dragway. That's when and where Steve knew he wanted to become a meteorologist. More than 20 years later he is extremely fortunate and blessed to be able to live his childhood dream. As a lover of math and science, Steve had a consistent interest in weather in elementary, middle, and high school before discovering you can major in meteorology. He attended Lyndon State College in Vermont where he received a bachelor's in meteorology-broadcasting and associate's in television news. He has worked as a meteorologist and reporter in Winchester, VA, Burlington, VT, and most recently in West Palm Beach, FL. He's recognized by the American Meteorological Society with the Certification of Broadcast Meteorologists.

Steven Glazier

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Our weather seasons are broken up a little bit differently than the astronomical seasons. In astronomy, we look to Sunday, September 22, 2024 as the official start of fall. The Autumnal Equinox will happen around 8 a.m. ET that Sunday, when the sun's rays move directly over the Equator. It's a moment in time when Earth gets equal day and night, 12 hours of each.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/08/Screenshot 2024-08-31 121559-1725128816380.png">The first day of Meteorological Fall was September 1, and continues through November 30 when Meteorological Fall ends. Our weather seasons are split into even three-month periods for easier record keeping.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Screenshot 2024-09-02 203921-1725331171022.jpg">So, welcome to Fall! The weather outlook from the Climate Prediction Center shows much of the Lower 48 having higher chances of remaining warmer-than-average during September, October, and November.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Screenshot 2024-09-02 204030-1725331248812.jpg">This does not mean it won't get chilly or cool. Short-term cold weather patterns will still be possible. But when the three-month period is summed up, it will likely be warmer-than-average.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/09/Screenshot 2024-09-02 204038-1725331302461.jpg">The outlook for September, October, and November calls for drier-than-average weather for parts of the Desert Southwest, Four Corners, Southern/Central Plains, and lower Pacific Coast. The Northwest coast and East Coasts will be wetter-than-average.

It's Meteorological Fall! Here's the Outlook

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We may sound like a broken record talking/writing about this, but once again the city of Dallas has found itself in the record books....for rainy weather. Here's the latest one:

<img class="alignnone wp-image-98895 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/10/Capture_3-2.jpg" alt="Chalk up Another Rainy Record for Dallas" width="1920" height="1080" />

The Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas area has received more than 14 inches of rain so far this month. That officially makes it the wettest October on record for this location. Precipitation records have been kept here since 1898! It doesn't stop there though...

<img class="wp-image-98896 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/10/image_full4.jpg" alt="Chalk up Another Rainy Record for Dallas" width="1056" height="720" /> Courtesy the National Weather Service - Fort Worth, TX

According to the local National Weather Service office, these are the first back-to-back months with record precipitation since 1945! Dallas-Fort Worth picked up 12.89" just last month, making it the wettest September on record as well! You put the two together and...well, you can guess:

<img class="alignnone wp-image-98897 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/10/Capture_2-2.jpg" alt="Chalk up Another Rainy Record for Dallas" width="1920" height="1080" />

Meteorological Fall which consists all of September, October, and November is officially the wettest in the Dallas-Fort Worth recorded history. With more than a month to go, these numbers will likely continue to rise.

Why has it been so wet? The weather pattern featured stronger jet stream winds coming into Texas from the Pacific Ocean. This helped steer multiple hurricanes and tropical storms into Mexico and eventually into Texas. Meanwhile, multiple cold fronts have become parked across northern Texas, separating warm-humid air from cold-dry air and releasing more rain on northern Texas.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-98898 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/10/Capture_5-3.jpg" alt="Chalk up Another Rainy Record for Dallas" width="1920" height="1080" />

The precipitation outlook for the turn of the calendar [October 30 - November 3] shows an above-average chance of wetter weather conditions in green.

Watch out, kiddos! As of this writing, it appears Halloween in the Dallas-Fort Worth area could be pretty wet! Rain is currently forecast for Wednesday, October 31.

For WeatherNation, Meteorologist <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/team/steven-glazier/">Steve Glazier</a>