Kevin Schneider

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It has been 10 days since the devastating floods swept through the Texas Hill Country, and our hearts remain with the communities still recovering. The thought of more heavy rain is the last thing anyone wants to hear right now, but unfortunately, we are monitoring more rainfall. Sunday morning, parts of Texas have seen over 6" of rainfall. For the San Saba area, over 9" of rain was recorded in the last 24 hours.With more rainfall in the forecast today, the Weather Prediction Center is highlighting a MODERATE risk along the Big Bend of Texas. Localized heavy rain will be possible on top of the already saturated soils, bringing more flooding concerns.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-14 130259-1752519848032.png">Flood Watches continue for Texas for the potential of continued heavy rain. Additional watches have been issued for eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas too.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-14 130134-1752519853463.png">The forecast timing of additional rain favors the Big Bend of Texas AND the Texas Hill Country.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/07-14_rsc texas 12z-1752519937913.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Tune in to WeatherNation for live updates throughout the hour.

Alana Cameron

Flash Flooding Threat Continues in Texas

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Tracey Anthony

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Invest 93L has developed off the Florida coast. Hurricane Hunters will take a closer look at the circulation on Tuesday.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2025-07-14 08-13-49-1752495281811.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Forecast Track</h1><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/tomer invest 93l spaghetti-1752519569534.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Forecast Factors</h1>Why is the northern Gulf being highlighted for development in the middle of July? Models favor upper-level troughing to develop over the region toward the middle of the week, which is likely to spur lift and heavy rain.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 072740-1752155310312.png">At the surface, winds could converge around several boundaries that have the potential to form. This is a process similar to conditions that created Tropical Storm Chantal, which moved onshore in the Carolinas on the July 4th weekend, spurring significant flooding in North Carolina.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-12 054231-1752320579168.png">Warm water is a necessary ingredient for tropical formation, and temperatures in the Gulf are plenty warm to fuel tropical systems. Typically, sea-surface temperatures in the upper 70s are needed for tropical cyclone development.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Web 2-1752495335806.png">Water temperatures tend to warm more quickly early in the season in the Gulf and western Atlantic. This is more often where we see early-season development.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 072757-1752155325910.png">Updated CSU Outlook</h1>Colorado State University updated its seasonal forecast on Wednesday, July 9th.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 081155-1752156752337.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 081242-1752156788535.png">

Chris Tomer

Invest 93L Develops Off Florida Coast, CSU Updates Seasonal Forecast

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"Enough of this heat, already" - everybodyIn the middle of July, you don't often get a strong enough system to boot temperatures back some 30 degrees. So enjoy the breath of fresh air where it's available. The Northern Rockies and High Plains are going to be the beneficiaries of this one, breaking the 100 heat in a substantial way. That's the reward for the suffering they go through in the Winter.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-14 125705-1752519537135.png">Some areas will plummet into the 60s after today, after the mid-to-upper 90s! That kind of swing means someone is going to get severe weather. Expect strong to severe storms today and on Tuesday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-14 125713-1752519551132.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-14 125717-1752519556620.png">The SPC has also issued a marginal risk through Wednesday across the Plains.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-14 125721-1752519593366.png">The better-organized storms appear to take shape on Tuesday, with the best bet being around South Dakota and Nebraska. All threats will be on the table Tuesday, but it'll be more of a damaging wind/large hail threat.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/07-14 rnc 12z-1752519661714.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Storms look to fire a little late in the day Monday as the system comes together. Once the front starts driving south, a better push will generate storms Tuesday afternoon-evening.

Strong July Trough Shakes Up Temperatures

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Storms rumbling through the northeast on Sunday knocked down a few trees with high winds. That same front is slowly pressing east into this afternoon, but will tap into some pretty deep moisture, even for July.<h1>FLOODING RISK</h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-14 130916-1752520320413.png">Areas around the I-95 corridor should expect showers and storms, especially this afternoon. But because there is so much rich moisture in the atmosphere, these storms will be efficient at producing rain. The Weather Prediction Center mentioned Monday morning in their forecast discussion:<blockquote> "...locally 3+"/hr rates are possible"</blockquote>That becomes a problem when you consider the dominant ground cover here, concrete and asphalt. Expect flash flooding to develop with the possibility that a high-end event unfolds, including catastrophic flooding. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted Washington, D.C., Baltimore, and Philadelphia with areas that are of most concern.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-14 130939-1752520327525.png">Through mid-week, rainfall totals across the I-95 corridor may reach upwards of 5"+.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-14 130921-1752520397314.png"><h1>SEVERE</h1>Heavy rain will help saturate soils in the area which means trees will be easier to topple. These storms look like, once they organize, will be capable of producing 60+ mph wind gusts. That could bring down tree limbs, which could threaten both lives and power lines this afternoon and evening.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-14 130905-1752520286801.png">Storms will develop along the frontal boundary as it moves east. Some of the strongest storms and heaviest rain can occur during rush hour, so make sure to check the forecast on your way home.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/07-14_rne bams3k 12z-1752520299088.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Flooding Concern Growing in the Northeast

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High pressure is moving off the California coast and building into the Northwest. Heat alerts range from the deserts of California and Nevada to the Pacific Northwest. A lot of people will be outside, so make sure you are practicing heat safety, especially during the hottest parts of the afternoon.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-14 131429-1752520505869.png"><h1>SOUTHWEST</h1>Some record highs could be possible across parts of California and Nevada. Reno, NV hit 104° on Sunday, which was a daily record high temperature. Whether record temperatures will be broken or not, most all the area will feel temperatures above average by 5-10 degrees to start off the week!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-14 131530-1752520556365.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Web 7-1752496451012.png"><h1>NORTHWEST</h1>Temps will be going from Well above average to below average for cities like Spokane and Missoula! Spokane will see a high of 95° on Monday, but on Tuesday the high will dip down to 79°. Missoula, Montana, will jump from 94° on Monday to just 70° on Tuesday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-14 131623-1752520598225.png">Check out the 7-day forecast for Billings, Montana. Talk about a roller coaster! Temperatures will be pushing 100° on Monday, but by Tuesday and Wednesday, we will see temps struggling to make it to 70°.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Web 9-1752497461811.png">

Dangerous Heat Impacting the Western U.S.

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Keep the rain boots handy in Florida - heavy rain is expected to inundate parts of the state from the end of the weekend into the middle of the upcoming week. Rainfall totals are expected to average 3-6" in Central and South Florida, with higher totals likely for areas that see multiple heavy downpours. Some locations may end up with 7-10" of rain by the time this storm system moves out.This system could develop into our next tropical system. Read more on the tropical discussion here: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/medium-range-hurricane-forecast-favors-gulf-csu-updates-seasonal-forecast">Atlantic Basin Tropical Update</a> <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-12 063516-1752323878845.png">A mid-level low-pressure system will approach the coast from the Atlantic by Sunday, moving over the state on Monday, creating widespread heavy rain.<h1>Forecast</h1>Strong storms are expected to fire up in the afternoons, but evening and overnight storms are possible thanks to the extra lift created by the low. Monday looks quite wet, especially in Central and South Florida.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2025-07-14 08-13-49-1752498076656.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Flood Outlooks</h1>Flood outlooks have been issued from Sunday through Wednesday, with additional heavy downpours possible after Wednesday as well. Avoid low-lying areas when heavy rain begins to fall and, if flash flood warnings are issued, seek higher ground!<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2025-07-14 09-00-09-1752498053476.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Heavy Rain, Flooding Threat Returns to Florida

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Friday was another busy day with severe weather and flash flooding. A Flash Flood Emergency was issued for Davenport, IA after they picked up over four inches of rain. The winds from Friday's storms were over 70 plus mph!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-12 055745-1752321471706.png"><h1>Timing</h1>Friday's leftover storms will be the catalyst for additional shower and thunderstorm development across parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Saturday, as will the frontal boundary that moves into the region. The surface low could also help to spur a few supercells, capable of producing a tornado or two in eastern Michigan, primarily from the late morning through mid-afternoon.<h1>SATURDAY</h1><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/FORECAST-1752352202968.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>As the front continues to move, strong thunderstorms may redevelop early Saturday over the central High Plains. Behind the front, a high-pressure system ushering in cooler, drier air from western Canada will settle over the northern High Plains, bringing a temporary break from the stormy conditions. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/PIC 1-1752352628146.jpg">Rainfall rates will remain high, with 1-2" of rain per hour possible. This could lead to rain totals surpassing 4-5 inches in some areas that see multiple rounds of storms or slow moving storms. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-12 055618-1752321436549.png">

Patrick Crawford

Severe Storm Risk Pushes into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley

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A disturbance to the southeast of the Lesser Antilles has a low chance of forming into our next named storm in the Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center gives this cluster of storm a 20% chance of developing into a named storm in the next 5 days.

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Throughout the rest of the week, these storms will be in an environment conducive for development. The warm sea surface temperatures as well as low wind shear will aid in the organization of this disturbance but it will be slow and not a rapid development.

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The good news is that over the weekend, the disturbance moves north, northwestward into an area with more wind shear. The upper-level winds will make for an environment that isn't conducive for strengthening and organization.

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However, we are still in the peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic basin so more tropical cyclones are still possible .

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If this cluster of storms were to develop into our next named storm, it would be the 11th names storm in the 2018 season and be named Kirk.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-97256 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/09/tropics-3.jpg" alt="Could There be More Activity in the Atlantic?" width="1920" height="1080" /> Be sure to check back for updates as we monitor ANY possible developing storms in the tropics.

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For WeatherNation, Meteorologist Kate Mantych.