Brittany Lockley

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<p>A cold front that brought record lows to the northern Plains has pushed south and stalled out. For Friday, another frontal boundary will lift back to the north as a warm front, setting the stage for renewed severe thunderstorms through tonight.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-17 211107-1752808272967.png"></p><h1>Severe Weather Outlook</h1><h2>Forecast Timing</h2><p>Both the warm front and the next cold front wrapping back around will act as focal points for storm development. Chances for severe storms will persist through at least the first part of the weekend.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Forecast-1752873368349.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>A severe risk area has been highlighted by the SPC for both Friday and again on Saturday.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-18 071948-1752844832546.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-18 071956-1752844832548.png">All modes of severe weather will be in the forecast. This does include increasing confidence for tornadoes over areas of the Missouri River Valley.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-18 072010-1752844855374.png">Stay with WeatherNation for the latest.</p>

Patrick Crawford

Fronts Continue To Spark Severe Weather Across the Plains

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<p style="margin: 0in; margin-bottom: .0001pt;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; color: #454545;">Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a></span></p>

Rob Bradley

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<p>Extreme heat continues to impact several areas of the lower 48 thanks to a few strong ridges of high pressure. These areas will eventually combine into one large ridge over the Central U.S. next week, bringing an extended heat wave to the region.<br><br>The end this week, these ridges are keeping areas along the Atlantic Coast and near the Mississippi River hot and humid!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-17 061243-1752754371260.png"></p><h2>MS Valley / Ozarks</h2><p>Extreme Heat and Heat advisories are in effect across the South through Friday. For example, some heat index values could reach over 110 degrees in Arkansas, Tennessee, and Mississippi. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-18 053856-1752838779216.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-18 054942-1752839435070.png"></p><h1>Carolinas</h1><p>Since the cold front has not cleared the Carolinas, heat alerts remain in effect for parts of the coastal areas on Friday. Highs will be in the 90s and heat index values over 100-110 degrees.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-18 053901-1752839235155.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-18 055014-1752839425906.png"></p><h1>Florida</h1><p>Florida will also have dangerous heat index values thanks to plenty of sub-tropical moisture in place. While highs will mostly be in the low to mid-90s, heat index values are expected to top 105-110 for many areas.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Day1SVR-1752878922469.png"></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-18 053923-1752839277121.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-18 054749-1752839277119.png"></p><h2>Looking Ahead</h2><p>Forecast trends over the next 6-10 days continue to favor above-average temperatures across much of the country, especially for the middle of the U.S. Temperatures are expected to soar into the triple digits for several locations! Stay weather-aware and take heat seriously.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2-1752808530217.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-18 055122-1752839498113.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-18 055128-1752839504400.png"></p>

Extreme Heat Impacts for the East Coast & South

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<p>A cold front pushing through the Eastern Seaboard was responsible for dozens of reports of flash flooding on Monday, so much so that the Governor of New Jersey declared a State of Emergency for flash flooding. The subway system in New York City saw quickly rising waters.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1945122429342282186" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1945122429342282186"></div><p>Many areas broke numerous records for the day! NYC's Central Park clocked in 2.07" of rainfall in <strong>one hour</strong>. That makes it the second-highest one-hour rainfall total to ever be recorded in Central Park.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-15 061632-1752581880381.jpg"></p><h2>More Flooding is Possible: Through Sunday</h2><p>A cold front is now moving through the Northeast. Most of New England is expected to be dry on Friday. However, the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions remain very muggy as the front stalls and the storm system rolls in. A Flood Watch has been issued from SE Ohio through the Outer Banks of North Carolina.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-18 052002-1752837643495.png">More scattered showers and storms are possible on Friday along the stalled boundary. For the upcoming weekend, the Northeast can expect more scattered showers and thunderstorms as the next system from the Midwest swings eastward, bringing the severe weather threat back to the north (to Boston) by Sunday.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Forecast-1752872992124.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Heavy rain will be possible with many of the stronger storms through the weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-18 052155-1752837720481.png"></p><h2>Severe Threat</h2><p>Scattered severe storms will be possible along the frontal boundary in Virginia and NE North Carolina on Friday, with the threat returning for much of the region by Sunday. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat, so be prepared for the potential of downed trees and powerlines.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-18 052122-1752837698341.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-18 052127-1752837704848.png"></p><p>More on your Eastern Regional Forecast can be found 10 past the hour on WeatherNation.</p>

Flooding Threat Remains Elevated in the East

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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<p>A fire tornado was spotted near La Sal, Utah on Saturday, July 12 (below). This is also known as a firenado or fire whirl. </p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1944827307769913683" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1944827307769913683"></div><p>This formed because of the Deer Creek Fire burning in Utah. The fire is over 14,000 acres and 7% contained. </p><p>The <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weather.gov/gjt/12July2025_FireInducedTornado">National Weather Service out of Grand Junction, CO</a> has given this a preliminary EF-2 rating. They stated that the firenado was on the ground for about 12 minutes. The report put out states, "<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">Many of the affected structures burned&nbsp;after the tornado occurred, but&nbsp;wind damage sustained by the remaining structures resulted in the tornado being given an&nbsp;EF-2 rating."</span></p><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">No residents or fire personnel were injured. </span></p><h2><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">How does a firenado happen?</span></h2><p>1. <strong>Intense Heat from a Wildfire: </strong>A large wildfire produces an enormous amount of heat, which causes the air directly above it to <strong>rapidly rise</strong>. This rising hot air creates a powerful updraft.</p><p>2. <strong>Spinning Air is Introduced: </strong>If there are <strong>strong winds</strong> or <strong>turbulent conditions</strong> nearby, they can introduce <strong>rotation</strong> into this updraft. The rotation could be from wind shear (a change in wind direction or speed with height) or from nearby topography funneling the wind.</p><p>3. <strong>Vortex Tightens and Strengthens: </strong>As the hot air continues to rise and spin, it forms a <strong>vortex</strong> — similar to a dust devil. The spinning column of air can tighten and intensify, pulling flames, smoke, ash, and burning debris upward into the air.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/07168-1752693521959.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p>

EF-2 Firenado from the Deer Creek Fire in Utah

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<p>Time has run out for notable tropical development of an unorganized low (Invest 93L) in the Gulf waters. The forecast has not changed in regards to heavy rain and flooding, which still looks likely between Texas and Alabama through Friday.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/New Baron Video 3-1752807673412.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1><strong>Rainfall and Flooding Concerns</strong>&nbsp;</h1><p>Regardless of whether it develops into a tropical cyclone, the system is capable of producing heavy rainfall. <strong>Flood Watches </strong>are in effect for portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-17 050756-1752750483583.png">Many forecast models have the potential of 2-6"+ of rainfall over the next several days for the Gulf Coast. Isolated totals of 6-12" are not out of the question, which could lead to a localized high-end flooding risk.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1png-1752807515471.png"></p><p>The risk of flash flooding is down a level for Friday and will drop to a Marginal risk on Saturday as the low moves north. If you come across water over the road, remember TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/New Baron Video 3-1752807991133.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Jesse Kelley

Tropical System Brings Flood Risk to the Central Gulf

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Tracey Anthony

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<p>Keep the rain boots handy in Florida - heavy rain is expected to inundate parts of the state from the end of the weekend into the middle of the upcoming week. Rainfall totals are expected to average 3-6" in Central and South Florida, with higher totals likely for areas that see multiple heavy downpours. Some locations may end up with 7-10" of rain by the time this storm system moves out.</p><p>This system could develop into our next tropical system. Read more on the tropical discussion here:  <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/medium-range-hurricane-forecast-favors-gulf-csu-updates-seasonal-forecast">Atlantic Basin Tropical Update</a><br><br><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-12 063516-1752323878845.png">A mid-level low-pressure system will approach the coast from the Atlantic by Sunday, moving over the state on Monday, creating widespread heavy rain.</p><h1>Forecast</h1><p>Strong storms are expected to fire up in the afternoons, but evening and overnight storms are possible thanks to the extra lift created by the low. Monday looks quite wet, especially in Central and South Florida.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2025-07-14 08-13-49-1752498076656.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Flood Outlooks</h1><p>Flood outlooks have been issued from Sunday through Wednesday, with additional heavy downpours possible after Wednesday as well. Avoid low-lying areas when heavy rain begins to fall and, if flash flood warnings are issued, seek higher ground!</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2025-07-14 09-00-09-1752498053476.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Kevin Schneider

Heavy Rain, Flooding Threat Returns to Florida

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<p>Friday was another busy day with severe weather and flash flooding. A Flash Flood Emergency was issued for Davenport, IA after they picked up over four inches of rain. The winds from Friday's storms were over 70 plus mph!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-12 055745-1752321471706.png"></p><h1>Timing</h1><p>Friday's leftover storms will be the catalyst for additional shower and thunderstorm development across parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Saturday, as will the frontal boundary that moves into the region. The surface low could also help to spur a few supercells, capable of producing a tornado or two in eastern Michigan, primarily from the late morning through mid-afternoon.</p><h1><strong>SATURDAY</strong></h1><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/FORECAST-1752352202968.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>As the front continues to move, strong thunderstorms may redevelop early Saturday over the central High Plains. Behind the front, a high-pressure system ushering in cooler, drier air from western Canada will settle over the northern High Plains, bringing a temporary break from the stormy conditions. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/PIC 1-1752352628146.jpg">Rainfall rates will remain high, with 1-2" of rain per hour possible. This could lead to rain totals surpassing 4-5 inches in some areas that see multiple rounds of storms or slow moving storms. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-12 055618-1752321436549.png"></p>

Severe Storm Risk Pushes into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley

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A disturbance to the southeast of the Lesser Antilles has a low chance of forming into our next named storm in the Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center gives this cluster of storm a 20% chance of developing into a named storm in the next 5 days.

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Throughout the rest of the week, these storms will be in an environment conducive for development. The warm sea surface temperatures as well as low wind shear will aid in the organization of this disturbance but it will be slow and not a rapid development.

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The good news is that over the weekend, the disturbance moves north, northwestward into an area with more wind shear. The upper-level winds will make for an environment that isn't conducive for strengthening and organization.

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However, we are still in the peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic basin so more tropical cyclones are still possible .

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If this cluster of storms were to develop into our next named storm, it would be the 11th names storm in the 2018 season and be named Kirk.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-97256 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/09/tropics-3.jpg" alt="Could There be More Activity in the Atlantic?" width="1920" height="1080" /> Be sure to check back for updates as we monitor ANY possible developing storms in the tropics.

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For WeatherNation, Meteorologist Kate Mantych.