CSU Updates Its Outlook for 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

news image
Special Stories
3 Jun 2021 2:00 PM
Today meteorologists and research scientists at Colorado State University (CSU) updated one of the season’s earliest and most well-respected hurricane outlooks. The latest predictions continue to anticipate this year’s hurricane season to be busier than average. Dr. Phil Klotzbach and the Tropical Meteorology Project at CSU anticipate 18 named storms, 8 of which becoming hurricanes and 4 of those becoming major hurricanes. Dr. Phil Klotzbach, CSU Research Scientist, explained the reasoning behind the above-average forecast, which includes above average temperatures in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and the lack of El Niño conditions expected during the season. https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1400477877548863494 An El Niño would mean warmer-than-normal water in the central and eastern [tropical] Pacific Ocean. That tends to create more wind shear to tear apart hurricanes in the Atlantic. Because El Niño is not expected to limit development, more hurricanes may form. Above average temperatures are already present in the sub-tropical Atlantic Ocean. Warmer sea-surface temperatures contribute to tropical cyclone formation and help to fuel the storms. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mKwg1oj8UM&ab_channel=WeatherNation In addition to the forecast for an above average number of storms, CSU also predicts an above average season in ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy), Hurricane Days, and Major Hurricane Days. The CSU forecast probability of at least one landfall for the entire U.S. coastline is 69%, the average for a typical season is 51%. There are five previous hurricane seasons that compare to this [anticipated] season, according to the CSU report. Those [analog] years are 1996, 2001, 2008, 2011 and 2017. You can read the report in its entirety here. New this year is the updated average number of tropical cyclones and hurricanes. During the 1981 - 2010 climate period, there were 12 named storms in an average year, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. With the new 1991 - 2020 data set, the Atlantic now averages 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and still averages 3 major hurricanes.
All Weather News
More
Stormy Days Ahead for the Northeast and Mid-Alantic

Stormy Days Ahead for the Northeast and Mid-Alantic

The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions will k

9 May 2025 3:15 AM
Severe Thunderstorm Threat from Texas to Florida

Severe Thunderstorm Threat from Texas to Florida

A splitting storm system will bring the threa

9 May 2025 3:05 AM
Late Week Heat Back in the West

Late Week Heat Back in the West

WEST - Hazardous heat is back in the forecast

9 May 2025 3:05 AM
Southeast Soaker This Weekend

Southeast Soaker This Weekend

A large trough of low pressure stalls over th

8 May 2025 1:40 AM
Major Spring Storm Continues With Rain & Snow For the Rockies

Major Spring Storm Continues With Rain & Snow For the Rockies

Looking at the rain from a glass half full le

7 May 2025 12:40 PM
Flooding Threat Takes Aim at the Gulf Coast

Flooding Threat Takes Aim at the Gulf Coast

The forecast remains wet in the southern plai

7 May 2025 2:00 AM
Rainy Forecast Could Disrupt Kentucky Derby

Rainy Forecast Could Disrupt Kentucky Derby

Louisville is gearing up for the 151st Kentuc

3 May 2025 4:30 PM