All Weather News

Derby Forecast: Rain or Shine?

3 May 2018, 6:11 pm

With the Kentucky Derby right around the corner, we’re going to focus on the weather prediction rather than trying to predict the winner of the horse race!

The forecast for the Kentucky Derby in Louisville between Friday and Sunday, May 4-6

Saturday is the day to watch! Right now there is about a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day.

The forecast for the Kentucky Derby Saturday May 5, 2018 where temperatures are shown along the red line and chances of rain are shown in green.

So far, it appears that the chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm remains consistent (around 40%) through the afternoon and early evening. Race time is around 6:30 p.m. eastern. Temperatures should be hovering around 70 degrees.

The surface weather map for Saturday afternoon, May 5 where gray shows clouds, green shows rain, the ‘H’ high pressure, and the blue cold front.

A cold front is going to be sitting just southeast of Louisville (not labeled above, but lies between Indy and Lexington) and will create that chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Most of the rain that you see here will be moving to the east-northeast, away from Louisville. However since the cold front and heavier rain will be so closeby, we’ve kept the chance in there for now.

Thus at this time, it does not look like the horses and trainers will be dealing with a mucky, muddy track. The weather should be generally favorable, assuming these showers miss the track. Wind will be light, around 5 miles per hour, and the sky will be partly cloudy.

Related Article: Weather Extremes in Derby History

Now to the big question this year: Are there any weather-related horse names?

Unfortunately not. Maybe Firenze Fire? Or Flameaway? (Since we deal a bit with fire weather) But that seems like a stretch.

Remember last year’s Thunder Snow? We were really excited to watch that one!

Related Article: Picking Thunder Snow in the Derby?

Perhaps this year our WeatherNation team will be rooting on Promises Fulfilled, in hopes that our forecast for this year’s Kentucky Derby is right!

For WeatherNation, Meteorologist Steve Glazier