WeatherNation Meteorologists

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<h1>Pacific Basin</h1>The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active so far this hurricane season, with no signs of slowing down. Nolo is now Typhon Nolo. Hurricane Rachel is still churning, and a new area of interest is likely to develop this week.<h2>Rachel</h2>Rachel continues to impact the western Mexico coastline indirectly; it will continue its trek west through the week. At times, this storm will run into some wind shear and weaken somewhat.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 040814-1791367714931.png">We also have Tropical Depression Twenty-E. This system is expected to meander along the Mexican coastline, with a likely impact to land late week. We'll have to wait and see if this moisture ends up over the Southwest!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 092837-1791387016885.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 092852-1791387007426.png"><h1>El Niño Fueling Pacific Activity</h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 040923-1791367778575.png">The surge in tropical activity comes as El Niño continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-28 194202-1790646127358.png">This year’s El Niño has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063433-1789216512410.png">

Adrian Hernandez

Tropical Update: EPAC Remains Active

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On Wednesday morning, Tropical Depression 9 became Tropical Storm Isaias off the Mexico coast in the southern Gulf. We expect this storm to continue to organize and begin rapidly intensifying as it makes its way north. Sometime Thursday, it should reach hurricane status, making it the first one in the Atlantic this year; shattering previous satellite-era records for the latest hurricane to form. Hurricane watches have been issued for portions of the Gulf Coast.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 093210-1791387151538.png">As it moves north, the National Hurricane Center has its initial landfall forecast between New Orleans and Panama City Beach as a hurricane. Heavy rain and flooding will be possible along the Gulf Coast states, regardless of the system's strength. For now, that is the biggest impact we're expecting.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 093324-1791387223769.png">If you're living along the Gulf Coast, now is the time to start paying attention to the forecast. There is still some uncertainty in the forecast, as there is plenty of shear and dry air standing in its way as it moves north.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-06 043745-1791283113704.png"> That's why the ensemble forecasts below still don't perfectly line up. Anyone from the Louisiana coast to the Big Bend of Florida should be on alert since changes in the forecast are likely.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 040946-1791367809287.png">Our in-house BARON model shows nonstop heavy rain associated with a different system we've been tracking this week. The potential impacts are likely going to arrive this weekend.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/1007-1791382002170.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Regardless of strength and intensity, we can count on heavy rainfall across a lot of these Gulf Coast states into the weekend. We're seeing potential totals above 6 inches! The flood threat will definitely be there as a result.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 080652-1791382017590.png">The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has a moderate (level 3 out of 4) risk for heavy rainfall and flooding on Friday. This includes Mobile, AL and Destin, FL.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 080717-1791382091198.png">Stay tuned to the forecast here on WeatherNation. We'll bring you the details you need, and cut out all the hype.

Kevin Schneider

Tropical Storm Isaias Strengthening in the Gulf

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Deep tropical moisture streaming north from the Gulf is combining with a slow-moving front, setting the stage for widespread showers and thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast. Apalachicola, Florida, saw 7.49 inches of rain on Monday; this was the wettest October day on record! More heavy rainfall and flash flooding remain in place over the next couple of days.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2107561532381090282" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2107561532381090282"></div>After all the heavy rain throughout the Southeast over the weekend, more heavy rain will continue as a frontal boundary lingers. As this front moves south, heavy rain will shift south as well. Moisture from Isaias will likely impact portions of the panhandle as well, increasing the flooding threat. For more info on Isaias and it's impacts, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/Gulf-Braces-For-Tropical-Impact">read here</a>.Some localized totals of 5-6 inches of rain will be possible. Watch out for localized flash flooding and ponding on the roads in the usual spots.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 081014-1791382221085.png">With this heavy rain, the flash flooding threat sticks around for the long haul. While moisture from Isaias will play a major role, we'll still have to watch for some isolated flooding across most of the Sunshine State.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 044716-1791370052406.png">Stay tuned to WeatherNation TV for additional details.

Taban Sharifi

Heavy Rain Remains for FL Ahead of Isaias

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Brittany Lockley

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A major temperature divide is unfolding across the United States as millions experience a true taste of fall while parts of the West continue to deal with summer-like heat.&nbsp;A surge of cooler air has spread across much of the central and eastern United States, sending temperatures tumbling and bringing some of the chilliest conditions of the season so far. Meanwhile, unusually hot weather continues across portions of the West Coast, where temperatures are running well above what is typical for early October.&nbsp;Summer Hangs On in the West&nbsp;While jackets are coming out farther east, residents across portions of the West are still dealing with significant heat.&nbsp;Temperatures across parts of California and the interior West are running roughly 10 to 15 degrees above average in some locations. Triple-digit temperatures have even been recorded in portions of Southern California despite the calendar moving deeper into October.&nbsp;Los Angeles experienced consecutive October days with temperatures reaching at least 100 degrees, highlighting the intensity of the unusual fall heat.&nbsp;The persistent warmth stretches beyond Southern California, with above-average temperatures extending through portions of the Great Basin and toward the northern Rockies.&nbsp;Over the next 3 days, many cities will be near, tie, or break the current records.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 035357-1791366853404.png">Heat alerts remain in place through Friday. Los Angeles is under an extreme heat warning, meaning use caution if working outdoors and make sure to drink plenty of water.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 035446-1791366898851.png">Check out temperatures in Los Angeles: the average high is normally 80°, but temperatures will flirt again with the century mark even in the next few days. Temperatures will remain in the upper 90s for Las Vegas, and Phoenix will dig into the 100s.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 035550-1791366965841.png">The Northwest will also be threatening record-high temperatures. High temperatures will stay hot in most of the cities in the Northwest. These highs will be anywhere from 10-15° above average.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 035630-1791367010235.png">Meanwhile, in the Northeast, Fall Air Settles In&nbsp;A strong cold front has helped usher cooler, drier air into a large portion of the country. Behind the front, daytime temperatures are struggling to climb out of the 50s and 60s in some areas.&nbsp;The cooler air is especially noticeable during the overnight and early morning hours. Temperatures are dropping into the 30s and 40s across parts of the northern tier, Great Lakes and Northeast, creating the potential for frost in some of the coldest locations.&nbsp;For areas that have enjoyed a relatively warm start to fall, the change may feel especially dramatic.&nbsp;The arrival of the cooler air is also pushing temperatures below seasonal averages across portions of the central and eastern U.S., signaling a more traditional October weather pattern.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 040003-1791367220514.png">A Coast-to-Coast Temperature Contrast&nbsp;The dramatically different conditions are creating a weather map that looks more like two different seasons.&nbsp;Much of the East is experiencing crisp mornings, cooler afternoons, and increasing frost potential, while parts of the West remain firmly locked in a pattern more typical of late summer.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 040204-1791367341750.png">Eventually, the western heat is expected to ease as the weather pattern shifts. Until then, millions of Americans will continue experiencing very different versions of October depending on which side of the country they call home.Tune in to WeatherNation for the latest on this forecast and records that break throughout the days to come.

Fall Chill Grips the East While Record Heat Bakes the West

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A noticeable change in the weather is on the way for millions across the Great Lakes and Northeast as some of the coldest air since spring moves into the region.&nbsp;After an unusually warm start to October, a push of Canadian air will send temperatures tumbling over the next several days. The transition could eventually bring the season’s first widespread frost and freeze to portions of the northern United States.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-03 073235-1791034366761.png">Check out how cold the temperatures will be for the Northeast early next week. This cold air could kill temperature sensitive vegetation.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-05 063050-1791203461967.jpg">The cooldown marks a dramatic change following the recent stretch of unseasonably warm weather across the eastern United States.&nbsp;October is typically when the first freeze becomes increasingly common across the Midwest and Northeast, although the exact timing varies considerably depending on elevation and location.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-03 073713-1791034643040.png">For many across the Great Lakes and Northeast, the upcoming cold snap could provide the clearest sign yet that the warm days of early fall are beginning to fade.&nbsp;Stay Tuned for more details in the Eastern Regional forecast on WeatherNation TV :10 past the hour.

Fall Temperatures for the Northeast

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Tracey Anthony

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<h2></h2><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2105658995948281901" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2105658995948281901"></div><h2>WHAT TO EXPECT</h2>Tropical moisture from the remnants of Polo and the Gulf have surged north and met a frontal boundary. This has equaled a formula of very heavy rainfall. Flood alerts are in place through Thursday across portions of the plains and Midwest. The soils for this part of the country are already very saturated for many. This means adding more rainfall can lead to flooding of rivers, creeks, and streams, and flash flooding is not out of the question.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1790897782083.png"><h2>TIMING</h2>Rounds of heavy rain will continue on and off. Isolated areas of flooding will be possible. Friday, this low will move east, and we will see drier conditions by the end of the week.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/FORECAST-1790897919777.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>TOTALS</h2>Folks can expect very heavy rainfall, with most seeing around 2"- 4". Some localized areas of a half foot will be possible! Never try to drive through floodwaters, and make sure to take any flood alerts and warnings seriously. If you live in an area prone to flooding, make sure to have an action plan in place if flooding develops! <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 5-1790897796211.png"> Make sure to tune into WeatherNation for the latest forecast!

Patrick Crawford

Plains & Midwest: Slow Moving Storms Increase Flood Threat

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

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In the last month, the southwestern states of New Mexico and Arizona have seen their fair share of monsoon showers and storms.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2103622200872079365" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2103622200872079365"></div>This week, tropical moisture is pushing across the Southwest and plains. This tropical moisture, from Hurricane Polo, will bring the potential for significant flooding across the region.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/poloooo-1790728785495.png">The flooding has already been seen across the Southwest, including Nevada.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2104753032432910655" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2104753032432910655"></div>A major push of this moisture will continue to move through.. Several more inches on top of what has already come down are expected. This can quickly lead to flash flooding and debris flows, especially over burn scars. The heaviest of the activity, now expected in Colorado and the Central Plains.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-30 054240-1790768613194.png">The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has a moderate (level 3 out of 4) flooding threat in place for portions of Colorado and New Mexico. The flooding threat will taper off by late-week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/overnighssss-1790820790763.png">Make sure to tune into Weathernation for the latest updates on the forecast.

Jackie Brown

Another Round of Flooding Possible for the Southwest

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NOAA announced on Thursday, October 12th that El Niño is expected to continue through the winter and has a high likelihood of continuing into the Spring of 2024. El Niño is defined as warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that has impacts on global weather patterns, including the U.S.. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/el nino-1697122854204.png">According to NOAA, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were above average in September and while the anomalies of warmth decreased during the period they were still above average in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño is the warmer than average sea surface temperatures but also must be balanced with atmospheric conditions, which were seen as consistent with El Niño during September. Per NOAA, "in areas of the central Pacific, low-level winds were anomalously westerly, while upper-level winds were anomalously easterly. Convection was enhanced around the International Date Line, stretching into the eastern Pacific, just north of the equator ... Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected El Niño."Forecast modeling shows a "strong" El Niño event from November through January this year with waters likely to run 1.5°C above average. Within that, there is a 30% chance that it will be a "historically strong" event similar to 2015-16 or 1997-98 according to NOAA. However, the 'strong' nature of an El Niño doesn't necessarily translate to stronger impacts globally. Forecasts also show a likelihood of El Niño continuing into the Spring of 2024. <div class="fb-post" data-href="https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=723297683164743&amp;set=a.228512579309925" data-width="500" src="https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=723297683164743&amp;set=a.228512579309925" style="display: flex; justify-content: center"></div>El Niño is part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation Pattern (ENSO) that require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere and is a coupled climate phenomenon. Typically, ENSO phases last 1-2 years and oscillate between El Niño, Neutral and La Niña.

El Niño to Stick Around this Winter & Spring

Tropical Update: EPAC Remains Active

Pacific BasinThe Pacific Ocean has been incre

Tropical Storm Isaias Strengthening in the Gulf

On Wednesday morning, Tropical Depression 9 b

Heavy Rain Remains for FL Ahead of Isaias

Deep tropical moisture streaming north from t

Fall Chill Grips the East While Record Heat Bakes the West

A major temperature divide is unfolding acros

Fall Temperatures for the Northeast

A noticeable change in the weather is on the

Plains & Midwest: Slow Moving Storms Increase Flood Threat

WHAT TO EXPECTTropical moisture from the remn

Another Round of Flooding Possible for the Southwest

In the last month, the southwestern states of