February Outlook Issued from the Climate Prediction Center

[Photo by Bruno Kelzer on Unsplash]

Last week, the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued their February outlook. Warmer than average temperatures are expected across most of the West, with below normal readings from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico. Drier than average conditions are expected in the Southwest and Tennessee Valley, with wetter than normal weather in the High Plains.

Our initial February outlook favors below-normal temperatures to stretch from the Great Lakes through the Gulf Coast. Below-normal precipitation odds are increased for California and parts of the Southwest. https://t.co/ZojpnSnk1D pic.twitter.com/Gq1P5Jk2rW

— NWSCPC (@NWSCPC) January 17, 2019

The main forecast influences were global pattern trends and long range model forecasts. An extensively discussed El Nino temperature pattern is underway in the Pacific Ocean, but the atmosphere has been slow to respond. Observed sea surface temperatures in the Pacific are warmer than normal as expected, with computer models expecting this trend to continue. But the overall global pattern resembles neutral conditions.

Based on the latest observations and model forecasts, the CPC still indicates a 65 percent chance for El Nino from now through Spring.

For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Mace Michaels