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“Fourth-Cast” for the Weekend

3 Jul 2021, 5:58 pm

The Fourth of July holiday weekend is just ahead, and WeatherNation has everything you need to know about the forecast in your region.


Temperatures are going to be below average across coastal New England on Sunday. Farther inland, we’re expecting temps in the 70s and 80s. Coastal showers will depart in the morning, so the afternoon will end up mainly dry across the northeast.

Temps will be a little cool closer to the coast, topping out in the 60s and 70s for New England  and 80s inland. If you’re hitting the beaches or lakes, be sure to watch for storms and check the beach flags before you go! Areas near the Great Lakes will be hot and dry.

Our forecast models are painting the potential for a few of Mother Nature’s natural fireworks by Sunday evening especially for New England, but we’ll be sure to keep you updated on the potential for wet weather. Most of the region should be dry by sunset.


The inland Southeast will have a nice Fourth of July all things considered! A cold front will make its way through the Southeast on Saturday, bringing heavy rain and flooding. However it will make it to the I-10 corridor by Sunday, with cooler and more importantly dry air filtering in behind. Humidity will be quite low for this time of year, a summer treat! The front will stall around the I-10 corridor, keeping a heavy rain and storm risk there along with the higher humidity levels for places that don’t get rain.

You can see the best chance for storms will sit along the I-10 corridor during the day and afternoon on Sunday but even those should be scattered. By sunset much of the activity should be winding down.

We are also very closely watching Hurricane Elsa. Any potential United States impacts would not be until Monday at the earliest, but now is the time to get prepared. You can read more about Elsa here.


Many states across the western U.S. are cancelling fourth fireworks because of ongoing drought and heat. Fire danger remains high across the region and fireworks are not worth the risk. If you are traveling to the area or staying at home, please check burn bans and make sure you’re extinguishing all campfires.

Temps will remain above average in many locations, by about 10-15°! In Seattle, we’re expecting the near 80°. Meanwhile, for the mountains, temperatures should sit in the 70s with 80s. Valley towns and the Desert Southwest will be hot, with highs near 100°. Near record heat is expected in parts of Montana and the High Plains this weekend! As always stay hydrated in the heat and make sure you have a cool spot inside to go if you start to overheat.

We could see monsoonal moisture spark a few storms across the high plains through the Texas panhandle on Sunday, something we’ll be watching closely for you. Pockets of heavy rain will be possible across New Mexico and Arizona as well, due to the monsoonal moisture pulled up from the Gulf of Mexico.

Here’s a look at the national high temperature map and comparison to average highs for this time of year for July 4th:

Most of the eastern half of the country will be at or below average. Places like Boston and New York City will be well below average with some record cool highs possible.

Stick with WeatherNation for the latest on the forecast for your region.

About the author
Kara has always been passionate about weather and knew from an early age that she wanted to become a meteorologist. Living in different regions of the country and experiencing weather events ranging from ice storms to tornadoes drove her to pursue a bachelor's degree in meteorology from the University of Oklahoma. Throughout college, storm chasing became a regular event for Kara, where she saw fir... Load Morest-hand the power of the atmosphere. Kara graduated cum laude from OU and decided to further her meteorology education with a Master's degree from Mississippi State University. The deadly April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak struck while Kara was studying at MSU; her first “Dixie Alley” tornado event and an up close glimpse into the destruction of the storms she so closely studied. Her broadcast career began in Elvis’ birthplace, Tupelo, Mississippi, where she earned her Certified Broadcast Meteorologist seal from the American Meteorological Society. Kara's career has included coverage of all types of severe weather including tornado events, flooding and tropical systems across multiple southern states. Recently she helped cover the 2020 Easter Sunday deadly tornado outbreak in southeast Mississippi. In her free time, you can find Kara outdoors exploring new areas with her mini poodle,Truffles. Kara is also an avid runner and frequently races in 5Ks, 10Ks and half marathons. Say hi to Kara on Twitter and Facebook!