WeatherNation Meteorologists

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<p>Isaias ended the late-season streak of no hurricanes in the Atlantic, but how will the rest of the season shape up? Record-breaking wind shear is likely to continue to limit most tropical systems in the Atlantic, but a few more storms are still possible.</p><h1>Atlantic Basin</h1><p>We now have a new area being monitored for tropical development over the next week. Our coastal low could take on some subtropical characteristics. Regardless of development, this low will bring rain, wind, and coastal impacts to the Atlantic Coastline.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/pic6-1792259669418.png"></p><h1>Pacific Basin</h1><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active so far this hurricane season and looks to continue to create additional activity through the next week. Several systems could bring impacts to the United States. Trudy is running into less favorable conditions for tropical intensification. This storm became a major hurricane on Friday, but it has since weakened and is now expected to be near category 1 status as it brushes the coast of Jalisco, Mexico.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 5-1792192411993.png"></p><p>Another system is expected to form in the wake of Trudy, with the NHC giving the potential a high chance in the next week. This system looks to move WNW initially, but could curve back east in the long term.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-17 073419-1792244077541.png"></p><h1>Western Pacific / Guam</h1><p>Super Typhoon Champi is bearing down on Guam as a category 4 storm. Thankfully, the core is compact and will hopefully miss a direct hit on the island, but it will be a close call and residents should be prepared for major hurricane impacts.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/2026-10-17 07-14-03-1792242917871.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>After Champi moves through the Marianna Islands and Guam early Sunday, the storm is expected to head WNW toward Taiwan.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-17 071430-1792242909538.png"></p><h1><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">El Nino Fueling Pacific Activity</span></strong></h1><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-16 111954-1792171201698.png"></p><p>The Eastern Pacific has set a new record for the most energetic season since record keeping began. The ACE has surpassed 318, which was the previous record set in 2018.</p><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">The surge in tropical activity comes as El Nino continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Nino is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-28 194202-1790646127358.png"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">This year’s El Nino has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063433-1789216512410.png"></p>

Patrick Crawford

Tropics: Champi Bears Down on Guam, Pacific Staying Active

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<p style="margin: 0in; margin-bottom: .0001pt;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; color: #454545;">Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a></span></p>

Rob Bradley

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<p>Santa Ana winds helped several fires grow quickly on Thursday and Friday around Southern California, forcing a closure on I-5 near Camp Pendleton. Unfortunately, more fires grew on Friday including two new ones including the Norte Fire near San Juan Capistrano. Evacuation orders remain for the Norte Fire and the Bryson Fire. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.fire.ca.gov/"><strong><u>Check on the latest status with CalFire</u></strong></a>. Santa Ana winds are expected to continue into Saturday before backing off into Sunday. Warm and dry conditions are also increasing the fire danger.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/VON_101626_RSW_SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO, CA_WILDFIRE BASICALLY RIGHT ON OP'S HOUSE_TW_@IUNKNOWN2010_MS_E101626-1792202251665.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-17 062408-1792239854741.png">Power is being shut off to prevent additional fires from getting started, primarily in areas around northern Los Angeles into the Simi Valley and surrounding mountain communities. </p><h1>FORECAST</h1><p>Fire conditions remain for areas north of Los Angeles, but drop from a critical risk down to an elevated risk. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/1-1792202385920.png">The strongest of the winds are expected into the afternoon today before backing off into Sunday. Onshore flow will return helping to increase humidity and lower temperatures. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-17 063517-1792240523420.png"></p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/2026-10-17 06-36-20-1792240600431.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>In addition, the strong down sloping winds are drying out and heating up the Pacific Coast. Heat Advisories are in effect through Saturday afternoon.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-17 063701-1792240631252.png"></p>

Several Fires Break Out in SoCal Amid Santa Ana Wind Event

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<p>After record heat impacted much of the Central and Eastern U.S. this week, a strong cold front has flipped the season from summer to fall for many! Cooler air is still working it's way down into Florida on Saturday, where highs are even expected to drop into the 70s!</p><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-17 091046-1792249936639.png">Cold Nights: Frost &amp; Freeze Issues</h1><p>Cold temperatures are leading to frost and freeze conditions for many. Friday and Saturday morning saw these conditions across the western Plains, the Front Range, and the Midwest.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-17 085947-1792249946525.png">Frost and freeze alerts are in effect into Sunday morning from Missouri through Connecticut. Areas north into New York and New England will be cold as well, but many of those locations are already past the end of growing season so alerts may not be issued.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-17 090953-1792250446364.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-17 091035-1792250454616.png">Low temperatures will be down into the 40s for many areas, but quite a few lows in the 30s are expected too. Temperatures will begin to warm steadily through the middle of the week. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-17 091040-1792250460566.png">Tune into WeatherNation :30 past the hour for more on your central regional forecast.</p>

Frost & Freeze Alerts Issued Behind Strong Cold Front

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<p></p><h1>Severe Storm Potential</h1><p>Severe risk is decreasing into Saturday morning. Some lingering storms still could produce some heavy rain and strong winds as the cold front departs the region.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792198726852.png"></p><h1>Timing</h1><p>You can see the lingering storms through the first half of Saturday into the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. Some rain could be heavy enough to impact travel and produce some isolated flash flooding.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/FORECAST-1792198978545.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><h1>Cooler Air</h1><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792198992928.png"></p><p>Temperatures will drop quickly behind the front, dropping into the 40s for highs this weekend parts of the Northeast and Great Lakes!</p><p></p>

Severe Risk Diminishing Saturday Morning for the Northeast

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<p>Extreme rainfall has been hitting areas of Texas and Oklahoma over the past 3 days. This is tropical moisture out of the Eastern Pacific that is feeding into this heavy rain set-up. Heavy rain will stay a factor into Friday for many of these same areas. Flash flooding and ponding will be likely.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792105981174.png"></p><p>On Wednesday, a tornado was captured on video near Fort Stockton. Preliminary reports indicate this tornado caused some damage.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2110471661556498786" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2110471661556498786"></div><p></p><h1>Outlook &amp; Timing</h1><p>Even though there were no outlooks for severe, intense thunderstorms will be possible overnight into Friday morning for areas of West Texas. Rainfall rates could get over 1" per hour and lead to flooding conditions.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/FORECAST-1792106185285.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Flood Threat</h1><p>With the added moisture from Simon in the Pacific, heavy rainfall rates appear likely at times through Friday. Rain could fall at more than 2 inches per hour in some areas overnight, with totals surpassing 3 inches in a few locations.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-15 063540-1792068465522.png">There is a <strong>moderate</strong> threat for heavy rain and flooding across portions of SW Texas, while the slight risk encompasses much of west Texas into Southern Oklahoma.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792106287609.png"></p><p>Tune in to WeatherNation for your top weather headlines. Your full Central Regional Forecast can always be found :30 past the hour.</p>

Flooding & Severe Storms Persist in the Southern Plains

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Brittany Lockley

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<p>A digging trough is bringing cooler temperatures and rounds of snow across the Rockies. So far, portions of Montana have seen 1 to 2 feet of snow. Snow is still lingering in Wyoming and Colorado. In fact, parts of these states are under <strong>Winter Weather Advisories </strong>through Thursday afternoon.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-15 075003-1792072220461.png"></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/montana snow reports -1791912601730.png">As this low-pressure system moves through, expect rounds of rain and snow over the next few days, with things tapering off by Thursday.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/FORECAST-1792023424748.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Our in-house model shows isolated snowfall totals up to a foot of across the higher elevations.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792023498486.png">Cool temperatures will continue to be below average as this low-pressure system moves through. Denver normally has a high of 66° and will only see a high of 54° on Thursday afternoon after starting the day with lows in the 30s. Freeze Watches have now been issued for parts of the Rockies and Western Plains into Friday morning!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-15 075157-1792072328421.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-15 075100-1792072300854.png"></p><p>For the latest updates on this forecast, tune into WeatherNation.</p>

Cooler Air & Lingering Snow for The Rockies

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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<p>Rachel came ashore in far northwestern Mexico, but the moisture, wind, and coastal hazards have brought impacts across the Southwest. Heavy rain has already prompted flash flooding, with elevated winds reportedly leading to some damaged trees. Remnants of Rachel are also significantly impacting the Southern California coastline.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2109372509783232854" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2109372509783232854"></div><p></p><p>The California coast remains under <strong>Coastal Flood Advisories </strong>through Tuesday.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-12 121608-1791828991428.png"></p><h1>Rain &amp; Flood Forecast</h1><p>The Remnants of Rachel brought heavy rainfall. Las Vegas saw 1.08" of rainfall on Sunday, breaking the old record of .78". This ties the all-time wettest October Day!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-12 121715-1791829042950.png"></p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2109622612250988652" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2109622612250988652"></div><p></p><p>More on your Western Regional forecast can be found :50 past the hour on WeatherNation.</p>

Jackie Brown

Rachel Spreading Moisture Across the Southwest

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Today's severe weather chances will not be as high as they have been the past few days.  We are looking at a Slight Risk of severe weather into parts of the Central Plains and Upper Midwest.  The biggest risk we are worried about is flooding with the slow moving cold front, but large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible as well.
<h2><strong>Severe Outlook</strong></h2>
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<strong> </strong>You can see a slight and enhanced risk of severe storms today for southern South Dakota and northern Nebraska.  Cities like Rapid City, Pierre and Valentine will need to be weather aware today.
<h2><strong>Severe Risks</strong></h2>
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Damaging winds will be the main weather risk with the potential of damaging wind gusts over 58 mph.

The flooding risk is also a big threat with some areas in Iowa potentially seeing over 4 inches of rainfall through Sunday.

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<h2><strong>Forecast</strong></h2>
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The highest chance for severe storms will be during the afternoon.  Storm chances should last in these areas as long as the cold front is nearby. Keep checking WeatherNation for the very latest updates.

&nbsp;

<a href="https://www.facebook.com/MeteorologistPC/"><strong>Meteorologist Patrick Crawford</strong></a>

Friday Severe Weather Chances

Severe Outlook

Severe Risks

Forecast

Tropics: Champi Bears Down on Guam, Pacific Staying Active

Isaias ended the late-season streak of no hur

Several Fires Break Out in SoCal Amid Santa Ana Wind Event

Santa Ana winds helped several fires grow qui

Frost & Freeze Alerts Issued Behind Strong Cold Front

After record heat impacted much of the Centra

Severe Risk Diminishing Saturday Morning for the Northeast

Severe Storm PotentialSevere risk is decreasi

Flooding & Severe Storms Persist in the Southern Plains

Extreme rainfall has been hitting areas of Te

Cooler Air & Lingering Snow for The Rockies

A digging trough is bringing cooler temperatu

Rachel Spreading Moisture Across the Southwest

Rachel came ashore in far northwestern Mexico