Groundhog Day is quickly approaching and will arrive on a Friday this year (Friday, February 2nd, 2018). On this day all eyes will be on Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania and Punxsutawney Phil, the world famous groundhog known for forecasting weather conditions for the rest of the winter.
Specifically, if Phil does sees his shadow, legend has it to expect six more weeks of Winter. If Phil doesn't see his shadow, legend has it to expect an early Spring.
Even members of our WeatherNation team are doing a poll on whether Phil will "see" his shadow (I am "TeamNoShadow").
WeatherNation staff poll of whether Punxsutawney Phil will see his shadow.
Phil has been forecasting since 1887, and over the course those years and with available records, 103 of his forecast have called for 6 more weeks of winter and 18 of have called for an early Spring. Statistically, he has been more accurate when he predicts an early Spring.
The last 8 years of Phil's predictions along with weather conditions. (Source: Stormfax.com)
So, what's Phil's accuracy?
Accuracy may be tough to calculate, but according to records kept by StormFax.com
, and based on the how Phil forecasts (mild or not mild), Phil has an accuracy of roughly 39 percent.
And what will he predict this year?
Based on past records, its likely that Phil will see his shadow, thus forecasting six more weeks of Winter. We'll find out on Friday what Phil sees and then only time will tell if he is accurate for the rest of this year's winter.
Lets go TeamNoShadow!
For WeatherNation, I am Meteorologist Marcus Walter