Brittany Lockley

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After weeks of hot and mostly dry weather, the Southwest is beginning its transition into the annual North American monsoon season. A shift in the overall weather pattern is allowing deeper moisture to move north from the Pacific and Gulf, setting the stage for a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms across parts of Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah, southern Colorado, and Nevada.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/PIC 2-1783811841169.jpg">The North American monsoon is a seasonal wind shift that occurs each summer, transporting moisture from the eastern Pacific Ocean and Gulf of California into the Desert Southwest. As the moist air combines with intense daytime heating and mountainous terrain, thunderstorms become much more common during the afternoon and evening hours.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-11 074047-1783777256375.png">The first surge of monsoonal moisture is expected to increase storm coverage through the coming days. While many of these storms will produce beneficial rainfall for areas experiencing drought, they will also be capable of dropping heavy rain over a short period of time. Because the Southwest’s dry soils do not absorb water efficiently, runoff can develop quickly, creating a heightened risk of flash flooding in washes, slot canyons and other low-lying locations.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/2026-07-11 07-41-23-1783777327044.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Recently burned areas will be particularly susceptible to flooding and debris flows. Vegetation lost to wildfires leaves hillsides unable to absorb rainfall, allowing water, mud and rocks to move rapidly downhill during intense thunderstorms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-11 074228-1783777365323.png">The arrival of the monsoon may provide some relief from the persistent heat that has gripped the region in recent weeks. Increased cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms can help lower daytime temperatures, although conditions will remain warm and humid compared to the typically dry desert climate.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/PIC 2-1783816620961.jpg">As the monsoon continues to strengthen through July, residents and visitors across the Southwest should be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions each afternoon. Even storms that last only a short time can produce dangerous flash flooding, making it important to avoid flooded roadways and never enter fast-moving water.

Patrick Crawford

Monsoon Moisture Returns to the Southwest, Increasing Storm and Flash Flood Potential

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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Extreme heat will continue to build across the West this weekend, expanding into the Plains and Upper-Midwest through next week.Some of these forecast highs for cities like Billings, Montana could could close to beating their all-time record highs. The all-time record in Billings it 108°, but it looks like it may be even warmer than that by Sunday afternoon.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-03-29 061107-1783689348584.png">Extreme heat watches, warnings, and advisories have been issued from Utah and Colorado up into the Dakotas. These alerts now extend across Northern Minnesota.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/PIC 2-1783811581349.jpg">Heat safety will be a key concern going forward. Be sure to stay hydrated and keep looking in the back seat before locking the car. The heat will spike sharply on Sunday in the Central and Northern Rockies before temperatures slowly drop.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/PIC 2-1783811609062.jpg">Extreme Heat Warnings cover parts of Utah, Colorado, and the Grand Canyon/Colorado River region in northern Arizona.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/PIC 2-1783811651778.jpg"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/PIC 2-1783811674179.jpg">All time records could be broken in the Central Rockies as well. Salt Lake City has reached 107° fives times before in the past. They have a chance to do that again on Sunday. If they surpass 107, it would be a new all-time record.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/PIC 2-1783811735937.jpg">Long-term models suggest this might be something to get used to, however. This ridge looks to linger in the area and could strengthen by next weekend. The Climate Prediction Center is highlighting much of the West with above-average temperatures into the middle of July.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-07 161953-1783462799142.png">Here are a few heat safety tips for people affected by the heat.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/pic5-1783634512392.png">

Extreme Heat For the West & Upper-Midwest

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Life-threatening flash flooding developed overnight Thursday into Friday in Missouri to the SSW of St. Louis. Parts of Iron and Reynolds counties recorded upwards of 6-12 inches of rain, leading to water surging into homes and businesses. This resulted in numerous water rescues by emergency personnel, over 90 in fact, but the great news is everyone has been accounted for!<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2075552085597429997" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2075552085597429997"></div> With all of that heavy rain, the rivers rose very quickly leading to catastrophic river flooding like the Black River. In Annapolis, MO, the Black River crested at a new record high of 28.73 feet on Friday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/PIC 3-1783811279974.jpg"><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/VO_071026_RNC_LESTERVILLE,MO_INSANE VIDEO OF OF CATASTROPHIC FLOODING IN LESTERVILLE_FB_MS_E071026-1783735634947.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Forecast</h1>We have been tracking heavy rain across parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast resulting in numerous flood reports earlier this week as well. Unfortunately, a slow-moving cold front will aid in daily rain chances, which could lead to more flash flooding.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/PIC 2-1783811197945.jpg">The Flood Watch continues for the rest of the weekend as training storms along the stalled front will cause more flooding issues. The front does move more to the South on Sunday.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/FORECAST-1783811351319.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Severe storms are possible each day, with damaging winds expected as the primary hazard, but large hail and an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/FORECAST-1783811440424.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Several inches of rain will be possible, especially across the Ohio Valley in states like Missouri, Kentucky, and Tennessee. With the grounds very saturated, it will not take much to cause more flooding. So remember, TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-11 054030-1783770037270.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1783649521082.png">

Stalled Boundary Increases Flood Threat into the Weekend

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Hazy skies will be hovering over portions of the Gulf and the Southeastern United States through this weekend, possibly extending into next week! Why so hazy? Saharan dust will be sent flying over the region at times, thick enough to make a difference in the color of the sun and potentially to air quality. Expect some of the thickest dust to hover over Florida this weekend (forecast below).<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/FORECAST-1783725185432.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>This is not unusual for this time of year. Outbreaks of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) typically occur in the Atlantic during the summer months as strong westerly waves move off of Africa, sending dust out over the Atlantic. Depending on the speed and intensity of the SAL outbreak, these plumes of dry, dusty air can reach parts of the U.S. at times, even the middle of the country!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 083614-1783521420831.png"><h1>Heat</h1>Hot and humid conditions will persist in the Southeast while the Saharan Air moves through. While the SAL does dry-out the mid-levels of the atmosphere, the bottom 5,000 feet is typically unaffected, meaning humidity won't change much even though there may be fewer storms. Record heat occurred in Florida and North Carolina with highs in the 90s and 100s.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1783735298752.png"> These are dangerous heat index values, especially over 110°. Consider avoiding strenuous activity during the middle of the day, take many breaks in the shade or air conditioning, and drink plenty of water!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/PIC 3-1783725292082.jpg">Highs could challenge several records in Central Florida in the days ahead. With highs approaching the upper 90s, it will be incredibly hot, especially when humidity is factored in.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/PIC 2-1783725228114.jpg">

Saharan Dust, Excessive Heat Impact the Southeast

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Several rounds of severe weather have been rolling off the Front Range into the Great Plains this week! A mid-level trough sparked severe weather Friday afternoon, bringing damaging winds and hail. At the Denver International Airport, wind gusted up to 72 mph.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1783736213990.png"><h1>FRIDAY:</h1>Damaging winds will be the primary threat along the Front Range and east into the Plains. Large hail is possible as well.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-10 063841-1783687129662.png"><h2>Timing</h2>Storms continue to push eastward into the Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas for the late hours. Storms should fizzle out by daybreak Saturday morning.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/BARON 5-1783736334233.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>A few locations could get hit a couple of times by thunderstorms this week, which means that some areas may see some locally heavier rainfall totals. Keep an eye on flood alerts in your area. With repeated rounds of storms, you may be at risk for flash flooding.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-10 064026-1783687247364.png">Flash flooding will be possible for many areas, though it will be more likely for some than others. Areas in dark green in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook (below) will have better chance to see scattered flash flooding incidents.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1783736373460.png">For more on this active forecast, be sure to join us on WeatherNation!

Jesse Kelley

Another Day of Storms for the Plains & Front Range

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The Aspen Acres fire continues to burn in Southern Colorado. Evacuations remain in place but containment is increasing around Pueblo.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2074856035924205678" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2074856035924205678"></div>The Babylon and Cottonwood fires burning in Utah are now among some of the largest fires the state has ever seen.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1783633931789.png">Numerous additional wildfires continue to burn across Utah, Colorado, and Arizona, which have scorched tens of thousands of acres over the past week. Below is the most recent acreage of the larger fires in Utah and Colorado, along with their containment.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-03-29 061131-1783603203805.png"><h1>Fire Outlooks</h1>The fire weather outlooks are minimal as we head through the week, but there is a chance for some dry thunderstorms across the Front Range of the Rockies this week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-03-29 061724-1783603442497.png">Heat will build into the weekend so make sure you are doing your part to not be the problem!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-27 043144-1782556311355.png">Residents are encouraged to stay informed, follow local evacuation orders, and do their part to help prevent the start and spread of wildfires this summer.

Babylon Fire in UT Surpasses 100,000 Acres, CO Fires Continue to Grow

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Colorado State University researchers have lowered their outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season as atmospheric conditions become increasingly favorable for the development of El Niño, a climate pattern that typically suppresses tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin.&nbsp;The updated forecast now projects&nbsp;nine named storms,&nbsp;four hurricanes, and&nbsp;one major hurricane&nbsp;of Category 3 strength or higher. While those numbers are below the long-term seasonal average, the outlook reflects activity across the entire Atlantic Basin. It does not indicate where storms may eventually track or make landfall.&nbsp;The expected increase in El Niño is one of the primary reasons behind the reduced forecast. During El Niño events, stronger-than-normal upper-level winds spread across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, increasing vertical wind shear. This hostile environment can disrupt the structure of developing tropical systems by separating thunderstorms from their low-level circulation, making it more difficult for storms to strengthen into hurricanes.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 095127-1783525916256.png">Despite the anticipated increase in wind shear, ocean temperatures across parts of the Atlantic remain warmer than average. Warm water serves as the fuel source for tropical cyclones, meaning any storm that develops in a favorable pocket of lower wind shear could still intensify. How these competing factors evolve during the peak of hurricane season will play a major role in determining the basin’s overall activity.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 095236-1783525964091.png">The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season occurs from mid-August through October, when sea surface temperatures are at their warmest and atmospheric conditions are generally most supportive of tropical development. Although seasonal forecasts help estimate how active a season may be, they cannot predict where individual storms will form or who may be impacted.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 095047-1783525931294.png">Residents along the Gulf Coast and Atlantic coastline need to prepare now rather than focus solely on the seasonal numbers. History has shown that even quieter hurricane seasons can produce devastating landfalls if a single storm reaches a populated coastline.&nbsp;

Colorado State University Scales Back 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

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Heavy Rain in the Upper Midwest

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For the past 48 hours, the rain in the upper Midwest has been almost nonstop. This year, the month of August became the second wettest August in history in Madison, WI. Water rescues and evacuations were needed in other areas in the upper Midwest with some areas receiving over a foot of rain this week.

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Rain is looking to continue this morning and can be expected to be heavy at times. It should start to dissipate after 11 A.M.

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In the next 12 hours, some cities are expected to receive two to three inches of rain. Most of the rain will be occurring before 11 A.M. Flooding is still a concern for the morning.

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Rain will be returning to the Midwest by the beginning of September. Some of this rain is looking to be heavy once again. The Climate Prediction Center predicts the beginning of September to be above average when it comes to precipitation. Stay weather aware throughout the weekend!

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For WeatherNation -Meteorologist <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/team/shelly-lindblade/">Shelly Lindblade</a>