Meteorologist Jesse Kelley is excited to join the talented staff at Weather Nation. Jesse spent most of his childhood in Birmingham, Alabama. The state of Alabama is prone to seeing various types of weather from severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and winter weather. For college, Jesse attended the University of South Alabama where he received his degree in Broadcast Meteorology along with minors in Math and Geography. From Alabama, Jesse started his broadcast television working three years at KAVU-TV in Victoria. Recently, he finished a stint in Shreveport, LA. Jesse and his wife are looking forward to making the Rocky Mountains and Colorado home. If you would like to follow me, you can follow me on Twitter @JesseKelleywx and on Facebook at Meteorologist Jesse Kelley.

Jesse Kelley

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<p>The fire situation in California is slowly improving as fire crews get better containment of the fires and winds are decreasing.</p><p>Looking ahead to next week, a big low pressure system will drop south from Canada down into Southern California. WPC favors most of the Western United States for seeing above average precipitation.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/BARON 5-1792288286734.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/1png-1792287840045.png"></p><p>The precipitation should really get going on Wednesday especially for Central and Southern California. The Sierra Nevada could be at play for some snowfall with this event. Throughout the week, the precipitation will slide eastward into the Four Corners. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted parts of the West for seeing some heavier rainfall that could lead to isolated flooding!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/1-1792288487195.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/1-1792288506517.png"></p>

Pattern Change for the West Next Week

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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<p>Isaias ended the late-season streak of no hurricanes in the Atlantic, but how will the rest of the season shape up? Record-breaking wind shear is likely to continue to limit most tropical systems in the Atlantic, but a few more storms are still possible.</p><h1>Atlantic Basin</h1><p>We now have a new area being monitored for tropical development over the next week. Our coastal low could take on some subtropical characteristics. Regardless of development, this low will bring rain, wind, and coastal impacts to the Atlantic Coastline.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/1-1792287045962.png"></p><p></p><h1>Pacific Basin</h1><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active so far this hurricane season and looks to continue to create additional activity through the next week. Several systems could bring impacts to the United States. Trudy is running into less favorable conditions for tropical intensification. This storm became a major hurricane on Friday, but it has since weakened and is now expected to be near category 2 status as it brushes the coast of Jalisco, Mexico.</span><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/1-1792287096143.png"></p><p></p><p>Another system is expected to form in the wake of Trudy, with the NHC giving the potential a high chance in the next week. This system looks to move WNW initially, but could curve back east in the long term.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792271494403.png"></p><h1>Western Pacific / Guam</h1><p>Super Typhoon Champi is now west of Guam as a category 4 storm. Thankfully, the core is compact and did miss a direct hit on the island.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/1-1792287208965.png"></p><p>After Champi moves through the Marianna Islands and Guam early Sunday, the storm is expected to head WNW toward Taiwan.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/1-1792287243211.png"></p><p></p><h1><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">El Nino Fueling Pacific Activity</span></strong></h1><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-16 111954-1792171201698.png"></p><p>The Eastern Pacific has set a new record for the most energetic season since record keeping began. The ACE has surpassed 318, which was the previous record set in 2018.</p><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">The surge in tropical activity comes as El Nino continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Nino is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-28 194202-1790646127358.png"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">This year’s El Nino has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063433-1789216512410.png"></p>

Tropics: Champi Bears Down on Guam, Pacific Staying Active

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<p style="margin: 0in; margin-bottom: .0001pt;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; color: #454545;">Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a></span></p>

Rob Bradley

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<p>After record heat impacted much of the Central and Eastern U.S. this week, a strong cold front has flipped the season from summer to fall for many! Cooler air is still working its way into Florida on Sunday, with highs expected to drop into the 70s!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/pic6-1792273998037.png"></p><h1>Cold Nights: Frost &amp; Freeze Issues</h1><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/pic6-1792286936059.png"></p><p>Frost and freeze alerts are in effect for Sunday morning from Missouri through Connecticut. Areas north into New York and New England will be cold as well, but many of those locations are already past the end of the growing season, so alerts may not be issued.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-17 091035-1792250454616.png">Low temperatures will be down into the 40s for many areas, but quite a few lows in the 30s are expected too. Temperatures will begin to warm steadily through the middle of the week.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-17 091040-1792250460566.png">Tune into WeatherNation :30 past the hour for more on your central regional forecast.</p>

Patrick Crawford

Frost & Freeze Alerts Issued Behind Strong Cold Front

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<p>Santa Ana winds helped several fires grow quickly on Thursday and Friday around Southern California, forcing a closure on I-5 near Camp Pendleton. Unfortunately, more fires grew on Friday including two new ones including the Norte Fire near San Juan Capistrano. Evacuation orders remain for the Norte Fire and the Bryson Fire. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.fire.ca.gov/"><strong><u>Check on the latest status with CalFire</u></strong></a>. Santa Ana winds are expected to continue into Saturday before backing off into Sunday. Warm and dry conditions are also increasing the fire danger.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/VON_101626_RSW_SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO, CA_WILDFIRE BASICALLY RIGHT ON OP'S HOUSE_TW_@IUNKNOWN2010_MS_E101626-1792202251665.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Power is being shut off to prevent additional fires from getting started, primarily in areas around northern Los Angeles into the Simi Valley and surrounding mountain communities. This should slow down on Sunday.</p><h1>FORECAST</h1><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/pic5-1792288120046.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/pic6-1792288035395.png">FIRE OUTLOOK</h1><p>Fire weather conditions should be winding down on Sunday afternoon, but an elevated fire risk will continue during the early morning hours.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/pic6-1792288498740.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/pic5-1792288632245.png">Keep checking with WeatherNation for more updates on the California wildfires.</p><p></p><p></p>

Several Fires Break Out in SoCal Amid Santa Ana Wind Event

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<p></p><h1>Severe Storm Potential</h1><p>Severe risk is decreasing into Saturday morning. Some lingering storms still could produce some heavy rain and strong winds as the cold front departs the region.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792198726852.png"></p><h1>Timing</h1><p>You can see the lingering storms through the first half of Saturday into the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. Some rain could be heavy enough to impact travel and produce some isolated flash flooding.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/FORECAST-1792198978545.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><h1>Cooler Air</h1><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792198992928.png"></p><p>Temperatures will drop quickly behind the front, dropping into the 40s for highs this weekend parts of the Northeast and Great Lakes!</p><p></p>

Severe Risk Diminishing Saturday Morning for the Northeast

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<p>Extreme rainfall has been hitting areas of Texas and Oklahoma over the past 3 days. This is tropical moisture out of the Eastern Pacific that is feeding into this heavy rain set-up. Heavy rain will stay a factor into Friday for many of these same areas. Flash flooding and ponding will be likely.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792105981174.png"></p><p>On Wednesday, a tornado was captured on video near Fort Stockton. Preliminary reports indicate this tornado caused some damage.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2110471661556498786" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2110471661556498786"></div><p></p><h1>Outlook &amp; Timing</h1><p>Even though there were no outlooks for severe, intense thunderstorms will be possible overnight into Friday morning for areas of West Texas. Rainfall rates could get over 1" per hour and lead to flooding conditions.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/FORECAST-1792106185285.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Flood Threat</h1><p>With the added moisture from Simon in the Pacific, heavy rainfall rates appear likely at times through Friday. Rain could fall at more than 2 inches per hour in some areas overnight, with totals surpassing 3 inches in a few locations.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-15 063540-1792068465522.png">There is a <strong>moderate</strong> threat for heavy rain and flooding across portions of SW Texas, while the slight risk encompasses much of west Texas into Southern Oklahoma.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792106287609.png"></p><p>Tune in to WeatherNation for your top weather headlines. Your full Central Regional Forecast can always be found :30 past the hour.</p>

Flooding & Severe Storms Persist in the Southern Plains

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Brittany Lockley

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<p>A digging trough is bringing cooler temperatures and rounds of snow across the Rockies. So far, portions of Montana have seen 1 to 2 feet of snow. Snow is still lingering in Wyoming and Colorado. In fact, parts of these states are under <strong>Winter Weather Advisories </strong>through Thursday afternoon.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-15 075003-1792072220461.png"></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/montana snow reports -1791912601730.png">As this low-pressure system moves through, expect rounds of rain and snow over the next few days, with things tapering off by Thursday.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/FORECAST-1792023424748.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Our in-house model shows isolated snowfall totals up to a foot of across the higher elevations.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792023498486.png">Cool temperatures will continue to be below average as this low-pressure system moves through. Denver normally has a high of 66° and will only see a high of 54° on Thursday afternoon after starting the day with lows in the 30s. Freeze Watches have now been issued for parts of the Rockies and Western Plains into Friday morning!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-15 075157-1792072328421.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-15 075100-1792072300854.png"></p><p>For the latest updates on this forecast, tune into WeatherNation.</p>

Cooler Air & Lingering Snow for The Rockies

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We have been talking about flooding rains in the forecast for California today, but there could also be some flooding rains in the forecast for parts of the Mississippi Valley next week.  This includes parts of Missouri, Arkansas and Oklahoma.
<h2>Forecast</h2>
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An area of low pressure moving through the Central Plains will be moving into a favorable environment for strong to severe storms.  The main threat with these storms right now will be very heavy rain.  The potential for flash flooding will be in the forecast by next week.
<h2><img class="alignnone wp-image-89162 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/Capture2-15.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" /></h2>
There will be plenty of energy available with this system as it moves over parts of Oklahoma and Texas.  This will be energy available to produce showers and thunderstorms.
<h3>Rainfall Potential</h3>
It is still very far out in the forecast, but all indications are hinting at a heavy rain event by late Monday and through Tuesday for parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri.  Even Illinois could see some of this substantial rainfall.

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The latest forecast is showing 3-6" of rain for a large part of the Mississippi Valley.  This could definitely lead to flooding concerns.
<h2>Extended Outlook</h2>
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Here are some city forecasts where you can see the shower and storm chances next week.  Witchita, KS is showing storm chances by Monday and in St. Louis, MO is showing heavy rain by Tuesday.

Right now there is no risk of severe weather, but I definitely think there could be some strong to severe storms with this setup so be weather aware for next week!

&nbsp;

<a href="https://twitter.com/MeteorologistPC"><strong>Meteorologist Patrick Crawford</strong></a>

Heavy Rain for the Mississippi Valley Next Week

Forecast

Rainfall Potential

Extended Outlook

Pattern Change for the West Next Week

The fire situation in California is slowly im

Tropics: Champi Bears Down on Guam, Pacific Staying Active

Isaias ended the late-season streak of no hur

Frost & Freeze Alerts Issued Behind Strong Cold Front

After record heat impacted much of the Centra

Several Fires Break Out in SoCal Amid Santa Ana Wind Event

Santa Ana winds helped several fires grow qui

Severe Risk Diminishing Saturday Morning for the Northeast

Severe Storm PotentialSevere risk is decreasi

Flooding & Severe Storms Persist in the Southern Plains

Extreme rainfall has been hitting areas of Te

Cooler Air & Lingering Snow for The Rockies

A digging trough is bringing cooler temperatu