Hurricane Prep Week 2023: The Tools We Use

news image
Special Stories
20 May 2023 5:00 PM

Cone and Spaghetti ... no not the food, the hurricane tools we use to communicate where a storm may go! Otherwise known as the "forecast cone of uncertainty" and "spaghetti models". Both are important tools to help determine where a storm may go and communicate uncertainty in the forecast.

Spaghetti Plots

Spaghetti models are used when the storm is an "Invest" or area of focus and could develop tropical characteristics. Each individual line in a Spaghetti model plot represents a model and where that model projects the CENTER of the storm will go. Usually we see outliers or lines that are way outside of where the cluster of models may be. Spaghetti models are useful early on in the forecasting procedure!

Cone of Uncertainty

The Forecast Cone is an official product from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and communicates where THE CENTER of the storm could go over the next 120 hours (6 days). The cone gets wider further out in time, signifying uncertainty in the track. It is so important to remember that the cone accounts for the center of the storm, and impacts can, and will be felt outside of the cone. It is also common for the cone to shift and adjust which is why you need to know your risk and prepare ahead of time.

All Weather News
More
Storms Sunday & Monday in the Southeast

Storms Sunday & Monday in the Southeast

Daytime heating and strong instability will b

4 Jun 2023 2:30 PM
Flooding Rain & Isolated Severe Threats for Texas

Flooding Rain & Isolated Severe Threats for Texas

Flooding has been rampant over the Texas Panh

4 Jun 2023 2:25 PM
Cooler Temps in The Northeast

Cooler Temps in The Northeast

COLDER AIRA backdoor cold front has brought m

4 Jun 2023 1:55 AM
Flood Threat Continues for the Northern Rockies

Flood Threat Continues for the Northern Rockies

A persistent pattern is keeping the radar act

4 Jun 2023 1:50 AM
The Severe Threat Continues in Texas

The Severe Threat Continues in Texas

We have had a pretty stagnant weather pattern

4 Jun 2023 1:45 AM
Arlene Weakens to a Post-Tropical Cyclone

Arlene Weakens to a Post-Tropical Cyclone

The first named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hu

3 Jun 2023 9:30 PM
More Rain &  Flooding For The Northern Rockies

More Rain & Flooding For The Northern Rockies

Another RecordWith gulf moisture continuing t

3 Jun 2023 12:50 AM