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Hurricane Season Forecast Downgraded

On Thursday, August 2, Colorado State University released another update to the Atlantic hurricane season outlook. The latest forecast suggest the season will be even less active than originally thought.

The updated outlook now factors in atmospheric and environmental conditions that would point to a less active season compared to normal. The release states that the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean remain cooler than normal, and the increasing likelihood of the development of an El Nino pattern would both lead to a below average season.

The forecast now calls for a total of 12 named storms, 5 of which would become hurricanes. Within the 5 hurricanes, CSU expects just 1 would be a “major” hurricane (category 3 or higher). This is lower than the original outlook (issued April 5) with an expected 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

 

(Above) August 2 forecast from Colorado State University on the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Full outlook: https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2018/08/2018-08.pdf

 

So far this season, there have already been 3 named storms and 2 hurricanes. The forecast number include what has already occurred.

 

Colorado State University’s department of Atmospheric Sciences is one of the leading seasonal forecast entities in tropical outlooks. The release continues to drive the point home that regardless of the forecast, “as is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

 

NOAA is expected to release their updated outlook on Thursday, August 9, to make any amends to their early season forecast.

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