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<div>Lucy is originally from the Boston area but has spent the last four years forecasting and living in Colorado! She stayed in the northeast for her education, graduating Summa Cum Laude from SUNY Oswego with a B.S. in Meteorology. Just a few days after graduation, she made the cross country move to Colorado Springs, CO to begin her career at KKTV, the CBS affiliate. Lucy has covered historic blizzards, tornadoes, windstorms, the largest wildfires in Colorado state history and dust storms ... they truly "get it all" in Colorado! Lucy is excited to forecast on a national level and continue her passion of explaining the science behind the weather!</div>
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Lucy Bergemann

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A powerful ridge of high pressure that has brought record high temperatures to the central U.S. and caused the Twin Cities Marathon to be cancelled this weekend is shifting east, and behind it, a significant cool down for northern Plains. Areas west of I-29 will get in on the cooler, more average weather today while those in the Upper Midwest will see one last day of hot air. As the high pressure dome is pushed east by an incoming low, so are the warm temperatures, with the potential for record heat in the Northeast Tuesday and Wednesday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/n central highs-1696339617162.png">A few lingering record highs will be possible in the Upper Great Lakes today with the trailing edge of the heat. However, much more widespread potential record highs to the Northeast and New England. In fact, some of the records in jeopardy are over 130 years ago - set in the 1890s!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/dots-1696273949722.png">Highs will run in the 70s and 80s, which isn't all that "hot" but for early October, this is certainly much above average. This will be anywhere from 10-15° above average on Tuesday and Wednesday. The same cool air that sweeps into the High Plains will also arrive in the Northeast by Thursday and Friday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/2-1696299402181.png">

Record Heat Coming to the Northeast, Cooling in the Great Lakes ...

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Meteorologist Jesse Kelley is excited to join the talented staff at Weather Nation. Jesse spent most of his childhood in Birmingham, Alabama. The state of Alabama is prone to seeing various types of weather from severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and winter weather. For college, Jesse attended the University of South Alabama where he received his degree in Broadcast Meteorology along with minors in Math and Geography. From Alabama, Jesse started his broadcast television working three years at KAVU-TV in Victoria. Recently, he finished a stint in Shreveport, LA. Jesse and his wife are looking forward to making the Rocky Mountains and Colorado home. If you would like to follow me, you can follow me on Twitter @JesseKelleywx and on Facebook at Meteorologist Jesse Kelley.

Jesse Kelley

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The big weather story for the next couple of days will be about the large upper level low roaming across the country! Severe weather chances will be possible from North Dakota all the way down to <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/day-to-day-severe-weather-chance-in-sw-plains">Texas</a>. Today (above), the risk shifts into the Eastern Dakotas along with much of Kansas and Nebraska, elevating to an enhanced, level 3 out of 5 threat. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/tornado-1696339836080.png">The Significant hail risk has been outlined by the Storm Prediction Center from Nebraska to the Texas Panhandle. Along with large hail threat, a few isolated tornadoes will be possible too. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/2-1696338165882.png">Rainfall totals will be heavy in some spots with some isolated amounts over two to three inches! Please have a couple of ways to receive weather alerts. The good news is that by Wednesday the front will lose some of its steam limiting the severe weather threat.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/Baron-1696338416072.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Severe Weather Chances for the High Plains

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Are you ready for a pattern change in the southern Plains? After an extremely hot, and in some cases, record-setting summer we are finally looking at fall settling in. Highs today are in the 80s and 90s for the south, running about 10° above average. The heat continues into Tuesday before a big cool down arrives by Wednesday and Thursday (above).<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/10-02_rsc tue thu-1696300821009.png">It is all thanks to a surface low-pressure system and upper-level trough that give a shove to the ridge of high pressure that has been sitting over the south. There will be a significant convergence of moisture around the trough and frontal boundary too, allowing for meaningful (and much-needed) rainfall Wednesday into Thursday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/MOISTURE-1696268251489.png">Models are indicating upwards of 5"+ of rainfall in parts of the Red River Valley and Ozarks. This rainfall is desperately needed as many locations are under extreme and exceptional drought conditions. It is likely we see flooding concerns not only in urban areas but also in rural communities where the ground is hardened and struggle to absorb new moisture.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/2-1696339155570.png">A few storms will be out there this afternoon and evening but activity will be much more widespread Wednesday afternoon and evening. In fact, a huge cluster of storms will bring heavy rain into Oklahoma and Arkansas. By Thursday afternoon, the front will be closer to the Gulf Coast with the opportunity of heavy rain and flooding from Houston to San Antonio.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/Baron-1696339508386.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Pattern Change: Cooler Air & Rain Coming to Texas

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Happening Wednesday, October 4th at 2:20 PM ET, FEMA will be conducting a nationwide test of the Emergency Alert System (EAS) and Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA). Test messages will be sent to all cell phones with emergency alerts enabled, TVs and radios. The test is broken down into two parts: <h2>PART 1: Emergency Alert System (EAS) </h2>Test messages are sent to radios and televisions. From FEMA: <ul><li>The EAS portion of the test is scheduled to last approximately one minute and will be conducted with the participation of radio and television broadcasters, cable systems, satellite radio and television providers&nbsp;and wireline video providers.</li><li>The test message will be similar to the regular monthly EAS test messages with which the public is familiar. It will state: “This is a nationwide test of the Emergency Alert System, issued by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, covering the United States from 14:20 to 14:50 hours ET. This is only a test. No action is required by the public.</li></ul><h2>PART 2: Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA)</h2>These are sent to cell phones only. The test will display in English or Spanish, depending on the user language settings. The following is from FEMA: All wireless phones should receive the message only once. The following can be expected from the nationwide WEA test:<ul><li>Beginning at approximately 2:20 p.m. ET, cell towers will broadcast the test for approximately 30 minutes. During this time, WEA-compatible wireless phones that are switched on, within range of an active cell tower, and whose wireless provider participates in WEA, should be capable of receiving the test message.&nbsp;</li><li>For consumers, the message that appears on their phones will read: “THIS IS A TEST of the National Wireless Emergency Alert System. No action is needed.”</li><li>Phones with the main menu set to Spanish will display: “ESTA ES UNA PRUEBA del Sistema Nacional de Alerta de Emergencia. No se necesita acción.”</li></ul>The test sections will happen at the same time, so if you are listening to the radio and have your cell phone expect to hear both messages. According to FEMA, "The purpose of the Oct. 4 test is to ensure that the systems continue to be effective means of warning the public about emergencies, particularly those on the national level."In case of widespread severe weather or events, the backup/postponement day will be for October 11th.

Happening Wednesday: Nationwide Test of the Emergency Alert System

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It is almost time for Katmai National Park &amp; Preserve's "Fat Bear Week" which begins on October 4th and continues through October 10th!<h2>What is fat bear week?</h2>Fat bear week is put on by <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="http://explore.org">explore.org</a> and Katmai N.P.. According to Katmai N.P. &amp; Preserve, fat bear week "is a global tournament-style bracket competition in which the public votes for their favorite fattest bear. The National Park Service launched Fat Bear Week in 2014, when it was simply Fat Bear Tuesday". In 2015, it launched into an entire week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/bracket-for-reveal-1696290871433-1696341008645.png"><h2>Why fat bear week?</h2>Fat bear week is put on by the park &amp; preserve to increase engagement and awareness about Alaska's brown bear population. The goal is to celebrate the "Brooks River brown bears at Katmai and its healthy and remarkable ecosystem"<h2>How do I vote?</h2>To vote you can head over to <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://explore.org/fat-bear-week">Explore.Org's</a> page to cast your official vote. The voting runs each day from 12 - 9 &nbsp;p.m. Eastern (9 a.m. - 6 p.m. Pacific) in a bracket style event. The "final four" is held on October 9th with the final round on October 10th. The winner will be crowned the "Fattest Bear". Share your vote with the hashtag #FatBearWeek on social media!<h2>Who are the fat bears?</h2>This year there are 12 competitors including this year's Jr. Fat Bear champion is deemed "big enough" to compete with the big bears! Some are familiar faces and others are new to the crew. Below are some of the former champions and participants in the 2023 season! The rules of the competition is that the bear has to be present at the beginning and end of summer and documented by Rangers in order to participate. The reigning champion is 747, one of the largest brown bears on Earth, estimated to weigh 1400lbs! He was first discovered at the preserve in 2004 and is now a seasoned bear on the river. He also has won fat bear week in 2020.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/747-1696281504448-1696341245594.png">The most decorated Fat Bear is Otis who won the inaugural Fat Bear competition in 2014 and then again in 2016, 2017, and 2021. According to <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="http://explore.org">explore.org</a>, "Otis was four to six years old when he was first identified in 2001, and he’s now one of the older male bears at Brooks River"<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/otis-1696341197254.png">Holly was the fat bear champ of 2019 and has returned again in 2023 to try and reclaim her status! It is possible Holly may give birth to another litter of cubs in her den this year, meaning her "bulk up" is essential. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/holly-1696340923817.png">To read more about the Fat Bears and the competition for 2023, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://explore.org/hall-of-champions">click here</a>. WeatherNation will bring you updates on Fat Bear week as they come!

Fat Bear Week 2023: Chunking Up for Competition

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A very sluggish weather pattern will result in a persistent forecast across the Southern Plains in the coming days. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will flare up along a cold front from New Mexico into the Ozarks! The Storm Prediction has outlined another Slight Risk for these zones with an ENHANCED risk through Kansas. Today, all modes will be possible again along with a significant hail risk across the Panhandle region. This is part of a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/pattern-change-cooler-air-rain-coming-to-texas">larger pattern change</a> bringing heavy rain and cooler air to the area. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/PIC 1-1696331900296.jpg">Severe weather chances will continue into Wednesday again around the Red River Valley area. So you want to make sure you are weather ready and have a couple ways to receive alerts. Once again all modes of severe weather are possible. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/severe wed-1696342097721.png">Showers and storms develop along a dry line today, but then an incoming cold front will blossom storms into much more impressive clusters by Wednesday. The front drops into central and southern Texas late Wednesday night and Thursday morning with severe weather likely continuing. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/Baron-1696326450595.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>For the latest updates, tune in to the WeatherNation app and on-air at :30 past the hour, each hour, in the Central Regional Forecast.

Severe Weather Chances in Southern Plains

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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The 17th named storm of the Atlantic season, Tropical Storm Rina, formed in the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday, September 28. But as soon as that storm formed, it quickly fell apart. At the moment the Atlantic only has one storm that we are monitoring.Tropical Storm Phillipe will take a gradual turn to the northwest, away from the Caribbean islands. As it moves north it will strengthen slightly, but the latest forecast cone has it remaining at tropical storm status, but teetering a category one hurricane. The good news is that no land is expected to be impacted. Although Philippe is moving away from the Caribbean, it will be breezy at times with big waves and rough surf.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/ts philppe-1696302282300.png">We are in the fourth quarter of this hurricane season and we cannot wait for that final play to call it done and done! Don't let your guard down, though--October can be a busy month, tropically speaking because of warm sea surface temperatures this time of the season.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/Screenshot 2023-09-30 070847-1696079369751.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/Screenshot 2023-09-30 070847-1696079369751.png">Over in the Eastern Pacific we now have a newly named storm...Lidia. This storm will not impact the U.S. and will move west of Mexico this week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/PIC 3-1696332711638.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/10/PIC 4-1696332718641.png">While we continue to monitor the MDR (main development region) of the Atlantic now, October could bring a few areas of potential development closer to the lower 48.

Tropics Update: Philippe Hangs on in the Atlantic

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[Countless lakes across the Southwest United States went dry in 2012, including this one, Teller Lake No.5, in eastern Boulder County, Colorado. Credit: UCAR, photo by Carlye Calvin.]

[<a href="https://cpo.noaa.gov/News/News-Article/ArtMID/6226/ArticleID/1685/Lack-of-Moisture-Connected-to-Drought-Propagation-in-North-America" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NOAA</a>] Droughts have disastrous impacts on the agricultural, economic, and public health sectors. With the formation of droughts still being researched, scientists ability to forecast droughts for North America has been greatly affected. <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL082475" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In a new research paper</a>, Julio E. Herrera‐Estrada and co-authors used reanalysis data from 1980-2016 in combination with a moisture-tracking model to identify the effects that reduced moisture transport has in drought formation and dissemination in North America.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-88125" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/02/midwestfarmlanddrought_noaa.png" alt="" width="650" height="375" />

They found that a decrease in moisture transport upwind resulted in more droughts across the United States. Also, they found that due to a lack of moisture exports, agricultural droughts upwind caused significant droughts downwind. In particular, the decreased moisture transport from land areas accounted for 62% of the precipitation deficiency in the high-profile Midwest drought of 2012.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-109129" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2019/06/600600p6226EDNmainimg-2019-05-06.jpg" alt="" width="512" height="330" />

Furthermore, a decline in recycled moisture within a region corresponded to a decrease of transported moisture to that region. These results suggest that land‐surface may contain useful information for drought prediction, and highlight the importance of sustainable land‐use and of regional cooperation for drought risk management.

Edited for WeatherNation by <a href="http://bit.ly/2HhiTgF" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Meteorologist Mace Michaels</a>

Lack of Moisture Connected to Drought Propagation

Record Heat Coming to the Northeast, Cooling in the Great Lakes ...

A powerful ridge of high pressure that has br

Severe Weather Chances for the High Plains

The big weather story for the next couple of

Pattern Change: Cooler Air & Rain Coming to Texas

Are you ready for a pattern change in the sou

Happening Wednesday: Nationwide Test of the Emergency Alert System

Happening Wednesday, October 4th at 2:20 PM E

Fat Bear Week 2023: Chunking Up for Competition

It is almost time for Katmai National Park &a

Severe Weather Chances in Southern Plains

A very sluggish weather pattern will result i

Tropics Update: Philippe Hangs on in the Atlantic

The 17th named storm of the Atlantic season,

It is almost time for Katmai National Park &a