Meteorologist Jesse Kelley is excited to join the talented staff at Weather Nation. Jesse spent most of his childhood in Birmingham, Alabama. The state of Alabama is prone to seeing various types of weather from severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and winter weather. For college, Jesse attended the University of South Alabama where he received his degree in Broadcast Meteorology along with minors in Math and Geography. From Alabama, Jesse started his broadcast television working three years at KAVU-TV in Victoria. Recently, he finished a stint in Shreveport, LA. Jesse and his wife are looking forward to making the Rocky Mountains and Colorado home. If you would like to follow me, you can follow me on Twitter @JesseKelleywx and on Facebook at Meteorologist Jesse Kelley.

Jesse Kelley

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If your Memorial Day weekend plans take you across the Ozarks and Plains, the threat of flooding will be elevated, so stay weather aware. An active pattern will be setting up across parts of the Central and Southern Plains and extending into the Deep South. Repeat rounds of showers and storms will be likely throughout the weekend contributing to the flood threat. A Flood Watch has been issued for parts of Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, and Oklahoma through Monday!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/1-1748127415205.png">The heaviest of the rain will come with a couple of rounds, many at night! An MCS developed on Friday, bringing a large cluster of storms across Kansas and Missouri. On Saturday night, the same scenario will be likely to develop with another overnight MCS coming across these waterlogged regions. Sunday into Monday, a stalled boundary will lead to the development of more storms and heavy rain.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/New Baron Video 3-1748127277263.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Through Monday, some areas in the Ozarks could pick up over 4-6" of rainfall. A Moderate risk of flooding has been issued on Sunday. This weekend PLEASE REMEMBER TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN!!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/1-1748127316837.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/1-1748127341274.png">

Patrick Crawford

Flood Risk Increasing Across the Ozarks Sunday and Monday

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Brittany Lockley

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A slow-moving system is bringing the threat of heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe thunderstorms to much of the Central and Southern United States this holiday weekend, with impacts expected to continue through Monday. A nearly stationary front stretching from the Southeast to the Central Rockies is allowing warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico to flow northward. This moisture is interacting with the front, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-24 061647-1748089016692.jpg">The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) for severe weather across the same regions, including parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, and the Ozarks. These storms may bring frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts, large hail, possibly over two inches in diameter, and a few isolated tornadoes. The highest risk for very large hail exists over parts of the Southern Plains, particularly in western Texas and southwest Oklahoma.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/PIC 4-1748134513702.jpg">With strong surface heating and abundant moisture in place, intense thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon and evening hours, in some cases persisting overnight. Storms are already forming in Oklahoma, Missouri, and the deep South, with additional activity expected later in the day along a dryline into Texas. The combination of strong instability and moderate wind shear will support the development of supercells capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/PIC 2-1748134525484.jpg"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/PIC 3-1748134531976.jpg">Storms linger Saturday morning in Oklahoma and Missouri. Eventually throughout the day these thunderstorms will continue to move down into the south along the warm front. Sunday, it will be rinse and repat. By Monday, more thunderstorms are expected to form across north and central Texas. While early morning storms could limit how much the atmosphere destabilizes in some areas, especially farther north, the overall environment will still support scattered strong storms by afternoon. Conditions remain favorable for more rounds of heavy rainfall and severe weather.&nbsp;<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Forecast-1748137148015.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Flooding will also be a big story this weekend as well, as multiple rounds of rain could lead to hefty totals over 5-8" by the end of the weekend. Rainfall rates will be high at times as well, potentially of 2" per hour.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-23 055037-1748001070906.png">The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 4) of excessive rainfall through Sunday morning for parts of the Central and Southern Plains as well as the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley. As the system progresses, a Moderate Risk (level 3 out of 4) for excessive rainfall is in place from Sunday through Monday morning. This heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding, especially in urban areas, low-lying locations, and near small streams. In some areas, repeated rounds of rain may also cause rising water levels on larger rivers and creeks.&nbsp;<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/2025-05-24 06-27-04-1748089644661.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Download the WeatherNation app to stay informed by monitoring the radar and alerts during this holiday weekend.

Severe Weather and Heavy Rain Threat  Across Central and Southern U.S.

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Hurricane Season has begun in the Eastern Pacific basin, right on schedule. The season officially kicked off on May 15, and just days in, we have our first area to monitor.An area off the western coast of Mexico (pictured above), an area of low pressure, is expected to form this weekend or early next week. This development would be hundreds of miles south of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for a tropical system to form around and organize toward the middle of the week.People with interests along the west coast of Mexico should stay informed with updates about this potential tropical cyclone. Some models take the system close to Acapulco after forming.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-20 073348-1747748094171.png">If this system were to strengthen and receive a name from the National Hurricane Center, Alvin would be first on the list in the Pacific.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-24 180949-1748131837700.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-20 070214-1747748273874.png">

Chances of Development Increasing in the Pacific

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Stormy afternoons have returned to Florida, after months of dry conditions that led to increasing drought. Storms on Friday produced hail bigger than golf balls in South Florida, along with gusty winds. Severe storms are possible again through the weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/1-1748126541847.png"> While Florida has been dealing with storms, the rest of the Southeast hasn't been as active, but that looks to change over the holiday weekend as rounds of thunderstorms move through the region, with a few severe storms likely.<h1>Florida</h1>Thunderstorms are expected to develop across Central and South Florida over the next couple of afternoons, fueled by sea breeze and land breeze interactions, as well as abundant instability. Shear provided by the cold front could help storms organize to produce large hail and gusty winds.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/New Baron Video 3-1748126679584.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area under a MARGINAL (level 1 out of 5) risk for Saturday. This means isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible, along with heavy rain and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-24 110833-1748106578628.png">Southeast</h1>Storms that form in the Plains and Midwest are expected to track into the Southeast over the next several days, maintaining severe storm potential along a warm front which will help steer storms. Wind and hail are expected to be the main threats, but an isolated tornado will be possible.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/2025-05-24 11-10-21-1748106651645.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Rounds of large thunderstorm complexes (MCS) are expected to roll across the Southeast in waves through the end of the weekend. The late afternoon and evenings look to be most active, but overnight storms are a possibility as well.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/New Baron Video 3-1748126783762.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Tune into our Eastern Regional Forecast:10 past the hour every hour for the latest updates.

Strong Storms Possible in Florida & the Southeast This Weekend

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season">COURTESY: NOAA</a>The mark of 2024’s Atlantic Hurricane Season will be felt for years. But as communities across the southeast continue the rebuilding process, forecasters must look ahead to the upcoming season to help plan and prepare for what’s to come.&nbsp;Atlantic Hurricane season starts June 1 and runs through November. NOAA released their forecast for what to expect during that time, calling for a slightly above average season.NOAA anticipates between 13 - 19 named storms and 6 - 10 hurricanes. Of which, 3 - 5 are forecast to become major hurricanes, Category 3 or stronger.&nbsp;&nbsp;This year is expected to be above average thanks to warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic. Although we aren’t expecting the same extreme, record-breaking ocean heat from the last two years.&nbsp;While ENSO Neutral conditions are forecast to develop this summer, La Niña conditions that traditionally support tropical development could sneak back in by the fall. Despite uncertainty, forecasters feel that the lack of El Nino conditions is enough to warrant an active forecast.&nbsp;The forecast is aligned with that of Colorado State University which also calls for a slightly above average season.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-22 080020-1747922483300.png">As a reminder, these forecasts only account for the total number of storms, NOT potential paths or U.S. impacts. It only takes one storm to impact you and the time to prepare is now.<h1>CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK</h1><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-less-active-2025-central-pacific-hurricane-season">COURTESY: NOAA</a><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac">NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center</a> and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/">Climate Prediction Center</a> announced a 30% chance of below-normal tropical cyclone activity for the upcoming central Pacific Hurricane Season. The 2025 outlook also indicates a 50% chance of a near-normal hurricane season and a 20% chance that it will be above-normal.In terms of storm numbers, the forecast calls for 1-4 tropical cyclones across the central Pacific, which is located north of the equator between 140°W and the International Date Line. A near-normal season has 4 or 5 tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.The outlook is a guide to the overall seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the central Pacific basin and does not predict whether or how many of these systems will affect Hawaii.The central Pacific hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through November 30.“Even though this season is predicted to be less active, now is the time for residents and businesses to prepare for hurricane season,” said Chris Brenchley, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center director.&nbsp;Forecast and communication improvements this season<ul><li>NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/">National Hurricane Center</a> are extending forecasts a day earlier on the sustained hurricane-force wind field (74 miles per hour) from 48 to 72 hours.&nbsp;</li><li>New this year, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and National Hurricane Center <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.noaa.gov/understand-forecast-information">will be able to issue</a> potential tropical cyclone advisory products up to 72 hours before the anticipated arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds on land, giving communities more time to prepare. Storm surge is the water pushed onto shore by the winds swirling around a hurricane.</li><li>Beginning this year, the National Weather Service will provide storm surge flooding forecasts for the main Hawaiian Islands (Kauai County, Oahu, Maui County, and Hawaii County) so that county emergency managers can better warn coastal residents and businesses.</li></ul>For more on storm preparation, tropical conditions and alerts, stay with WeatherNation throughout the hurricane season.&nbsp;&nbsp;

NOAA Predicts Above Average 2025 Hurricane Season

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A coastal low is moving up the Northeast coast, continuing to bring rainfall to New England. Meanwhile, a low-pressure system iback towards the West is keeping things unsettled throughout the weekend for the entire Northeast. Along the coast, there will be high winds and big waves to go along with the rainfall. However, in the past 24 hours New England was met with rainfall totals close to 6 inches.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-23 050847-1747998531848.jpg">The secondary low-pressure system over the Great Lakes is also set to deliver an extended stretch of cool and rainy weather from the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. As this system lingers, residents across these areas can expect periods of steady rain, with some isolated thunderstorms developing, particularly in southern New England. While the risk of excessive rainfall remains marginal, localized downpours could still lead to minor flooding concerns in susceptible areas.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-21 070458-1747833243953.png"><h1>SET-UP</h1>Beyond the rainfall, a stagnant upper-level low positioned over the Great Lakes and Northeast is ushering in an unseasonably cool air mass. Over the coming days, much of the Northern Plains, Midwest, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic will experience high temperatures ranging from the 50s to the low 60s. These temperatures represent a stark departure from seasonal norms, with temperatures running 20 to 35 degrees below average!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-22 141357-1747944846733.png">The dramatic cooldown has led to a few record-breaking low maximum temperatures over the last couple of days. From the Ohio Valley to the Northeast, cities and towns should brace for chilly days more typical of early spring or even late winter, rather than late May.&nbsp;<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-23 184312-1748047400991.png">FORECAST</h1>A couple of inches are likely across much of the region, with the heaviest totals (up to 4 inches) expected across southern New England.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/nelow-1748047521243.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>POWER OUTAGES</h1>Saturated soils plus strong winds? That’s a recipe for scattered power outages. If you plan to use a generator, remember to run it at least 20 feet away from your home for safety.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-21 071756-1747833546570.png">Make sure to tune into the Eastern Regional forecast, :10 past the hour for more details.

Unseasonably Cool and Wet Weather Gripping the Northeastern U.S.

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

Alana Cameron

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The stretch of record heat continues in Texas, Louisiana, and Florida through the weekend. Highs stay in the 90s and low 100s.<h2>Texas</h2>Southern Texas has been scorching hot, with days of records over the past few days. Through the end of the weekend, many locations, including Austin, could still break record highs.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-23 183255-1748046785219.png">Forecast highs in San Antonio and Houston will again warm into the upper and mid-90s, respectively, by Saturday afternoon.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-23 183325-1748046813652.png"><h2>Florida</h2>Records are likely to fall in Florida again on Saturday as well.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-23 183545-1748046950690.png">Temperatures throughout the weekend in Tampa are expected to reach the mid-90s, with heat index values even higher as humidity levels increase.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-23 183644-1748047010434.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-23 183706-1748047031839.png">How do you stay safe in this kind of heat? It is early in the season, so many of us are seeing this type of heat for the first time this year. In light of this forecast, residents are encouraged to take heat precautions seriously. With many communities still in spring mode, it’s important to be proactive, especially in areas without widespread air conditioning or heat preparedness infrastructure.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-13 074710-1747144046862.png">Tune into the local regional forecast on WeatherNation for more details.

Gulf Coast Heat Continues

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[<a href="https://cpo.noaa.gov/News/News-Article/ArtMID/6226/ArticleID/1708/New-study-elucidates-the-role-of-atmospheric-rivers-in-future-precipitation-regime-change-in-the-West" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NOAA</a>]  A new paper published recently in Scientific Reports explains the dominant mechanism for projected intensification of extreme precipitation in California and Western North America as part of the changing precipitation regime of this region. Previous work has shown the decreasing frequency of precipitation in all Mediterranean climate regions as they become more subtropical and the increasing intensity of precipitation (especially in California).

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-70827" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2017/01/Atmospheric-River.jpg" alt="" width="3248" height="2229" />

In this latest study, lead by Sasha Gershunov, with support from the <a href="https://www.adaptationclearinghouse.org/organizations/california-nevada-applications-program-cnap-risa.html">California-Nevada Applications Program (CNAP) - a NOAA RISA program,</a> the group identifies the dominant mechanism by which heavy precipitation becomes more extreme, atmospheric rivers. The results are not necessarily surprising as other studies have suggested intensification of atmospheric rivers, but the group has now explicitly linked this intensification of atmospheric rivers to changes in finely-resolved precipitation.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-111367" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2019/08/600600p6226EDNmainimg-ARprecip.png" alt="" width="339" height="600" />
This more mechanistic understanding of the intensification of heavy precipitation will help scientists interpret ongoing changes and make plans to manage water resources and flood risk in a progressively more volatile future.

New Study Highlights the Role of Atmospheric Rivers in Western Precipitation

Flood Risk Increasing Across the Ozarks Sunday and Monday

If your Memorial Day weekend plans take you a

Severe Weather and Heavy Rain Threat Across Central and Southern U.S.

A slow-moving system is bringing the threat o

Chances of Development Increasing in the Pacific

Hurricane Season has begun in the Eastern Pac

Strong Storms Possible in Florida & the Southeast This Weekend

Stormy afternoons have returned to Florida, a

NOAA Predicts Above Average 2025 Hurricane Season

COURTESY: NOAAThe mark of 2024’s Atlantic Hur

Unseasonably Cool and Wet Weather Gripping the Northeastern U.S.

A coastal low is moving up the Northeast coas

Gulf Coast Heat Continues

The stretch of record heat continues in Texas