Kevin Schneider

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The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active so far this hurricane season, and it shows no sign of slowing down. Meanwhile, the Atlantic remains mostly quiet, as record wind shear continues to tear apart tropical waves moving off Africa. While shear is high in the MDR, it hasn't been as robust farther north, where a new tropical storm developed early Sunday morning (above).<h1>Atlantic Basin</h1>Fay will slowly drift in the open Atlantic before turning back to the southwest and moving away from the Azores. This system won't directly affect landmasses but could send some waves to the Azores or Canary Islands in the coming days.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/tropical storm fayyyy -1789950549431.png">The end of September and start of October could get interesting in the Atlantic Basin, as more widespread lift is expected to develop. Wind shear is still at a record high, which should be able to crush any waves coming off of Africa. Tropical development will have better potential in the western Atlantic and Gulf, where shear is much lower.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-17 091009-1789657855421.png"><h1>Eastern &amp; Central Pacific Basins</h1>Several systems are being monitored in the Pacific, with some impacts to land possible this week. Odalys formed Sunday morning, too, and we now have tropical depression 17 to the south of Mexico, and another area behind that with a 20 % chance of formation. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/0 AND 20 -1789950291503.png">The question is: what do these systems do to (a) each other and (b) land? When two systems develop this close to each other, there will be some interaction, where both spin around an imaginary point in the Pacific Ocean. But after that interaction, what else will be in place? A few things, actually. All of these factors lead to sizable spread in the outcomes, from landfall in western Mexico to a hurricane climbing northward.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-20 070952-1789909809568.png"><h1>El Niño Fueling Pacific Activity</h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-20 071102-1789909874054.png">The surge in tropical activity comes as El Niño continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-16 073748-1789565873978.png">This year’s El Nino has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063433-1789216512410.png">

Jackie Brown

Tropics: Watching Multiple Systems

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Originally born in Spokane, Washington,  Jackie's Dad was in the Air Force which led her to a life of travel. She has lived in Wichita, Okinawa, Japan, Baltimore, New Jersey, Indiana and South Carolina.  After graduating from Kadena High School, in Okinawa Japan, she got a full basketball scholarship to Coppin State College. On the court she was a 4-year starter and reached over 1000 points in her basketball career. She was also named Athlete of the Year for the whole university in 2002. Off the court, she earned a degree in Broadcast Production/English.

After college, she landed a job as a radio personality. Jackie went on to have a successful career for 12 years working at KXLY broadcast center. While on the radio, she decided to change career. Jackie went back to school, graduating from the Mississippi State Meteorology Broadcast Program. From snow, to tornadoes, to hurricanes, she has had experience forecasting all these events.

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WHAT TO EXPECT Record rainfall was set today in Charleston, WV, and South Bend, Indiana. Charleston saw 1.59" inches, beating out the old record of 1.25 inches, and South Bend saw 1.42 inches, beating out the old record of .99". More rainfall is on the way, increasing the risk of more flooding. <h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/mondayyy-1789951035679.png">Storms &amp; Timing</h1>We will continue to see a frontal boundary linger, and one again more rain with heavy rain embedded in some of the storms that develop. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/jfjssss-1789950960845.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>RAINFALL TOTALSThere will be local areas of heavy rain! Spots like West Virginia can see upwards of 4 to even 5 inches through Wednesday morning. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/WED 7 AMMMM -1789951092570.png">For more info on your central regional forecast, tune into WeatherNation :30 past the hour every hour.

More Flooding Concerns Out East

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<h1>WHAT TO EXPECT </h1>Things will be active in the southeast on Monday and Tuesday as a surface cold front combines with instability to bring strong to severe storms for cities like Nashville, Atlanta, and Chattanooga. Damaging winds will be the main concern both days. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/se 1 -1789953665054.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/se 2 -1789953671162.png"><h1>TIMING</h1>The best chance of seeing the strongest storms will be in the afternoon with the help of diurnal heating! There will also be some pockets of heavy rain embedded in these storms as this low-pressure system and its associated cold front move through.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/dddssss-1789953765808.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Our model data shows most folks seeing around a half-inch of rain or less through Tuesday morning. Raleigh will potentially see some of the heaviest rainfall, with multiple inches possible. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/southeast everrr-1789953693509.png">For more info on your eastern regional forecast, tune into WeatherNation :10 past the hour.

Severe Storms For The Southeast To Start Your Week

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Severe storms and heavy rain have been targeting the Rockies since Thursday, when large hail began battering portions of Utah and Idaho. Two tornadoes were even captured on video in Utah on Friday, including the mountainside twister you see below!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/TORNADOINFRUITHEIGHTSUT-ezgif.com-video-to-gif-converter-1789822080945.gif"><h1></h1><h1>Severe Storms &amp; Timing</h1>Overnight, we have a severe threat in place for portions of CO, KS and OK. Storms fired up today, bringing damaging winds and hail. Any storms that stick around into the overnight hours can see damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado or two will be possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/sssa-1789954285946.png">A few storms will linger in the overnight hours, with some heavy rain possible embedded in the storms.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/overnightss-1789954388198.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Storms Continue to Pummel the Rockies

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It's been a long, hot summer. That might be an understatement, actually, as<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202608"> the U.S. experienced it's hottest summer on record</a>! Areas like the Southwest were especially warm, but even through September the South and Southeast have been scorching! Just in time for fall, a cold front will be cutting across the country to start the week, dropping highs from the 90s to the 60s in some areas! While it won't be completely dry behind the front, many people will feel a significant cool down.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-20 073324-1789911238058.png">Unfortunately, for folks along the Gulf Coast and down into Florida, this front won't be strong enough to reach that far south, but for areas like Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Virginia, this will usher in a major change!Highs will drop 20-30 degrees in many areas from Sunday through Tuesday, including Oklahoma City and Washington D.C.!<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-20 073414-1789911266216.png">Autumnal Equinox</h1>Fall begins on Tuesday, at 8:04 pm ET, which is the exact time the suns rays cross over the equator the southern hemisphere begins to lean more toward the sun.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-19 093856-1789832359623.png">Both the vernal and autumnal equinox (Latin for equal night) marks the point of the year when the earth gets hit equally by the sun in both hemispheres. This is different from the winter and summer solstice, when the hemispheres reach their point of maximum inclination toward the sun.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-19 093913-1789832367580.png">

Finally Cooling Down; Cold Front Arrives Just in Time for Fall

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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The second largest reservoir in the United States now sits at its lowest level on record, following a dismal year for snowfall in the Central Rockies. Images released by NASA (top of page) show the contrast with 2017, which saw heavy snow during the preceding winter and thus, plentiful runoff during the spring and summer. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 131721-1789759308683.png">Downstream, Lake Mead and the Parker Dam are both at their lowest levels at to-date over the past 30 years. Both are also fed by the struggling Colorado River. River managers have had to take action to keep water levels above the threshold necessary to generate power, including releasing extra water from upstream basins and cancelling timed releases set to help native species survive on the river.<h1>Snowpack Determines River Levels</h1>While the Southwest Monsoon has had a solid season in 2026, those hit or miss thunderstorms are only a drop in the bucket compared to the water supplied to the Colorado River from melting snow. The river is fed by numerous mountain ranges in the Central and Southern Rockies, though most of the water comes from the mountains west of the continental divide in Colorado.<h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 131656-1789760441419.png"></h2>Snowpack in Colorado got a late surge in the Spring but was still near record lows, especially in Southwestern Colorado. Many ski resorts were forced to shut down a week to a month ahead of normal. The melt-off of the snowpack was the second earliest on record. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 134932-1789760993718.png">The deficit of precipitation is tremendous in many areas, but western Colorado stands out with the bright red colors, indicating at least 2 feet of water missing over the last year. Other mountain ranges that send runoff into the Colorado are also lagging well behind, with deficits of 1-2 feet widespread across the west. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 131534-1789761117664.png"><h1>Winter Outlook</h1>The surging El Niño could offer some help in the form of heavy precipitation. Wetter than average conditions are favored across much of the west, with near normal precipitation favored for much of the Upper Colorado River Basin. Unfortunately after many years of below average precipitation, it would likely take many successive seasons to help the river return to normal. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 135826-1789761517713.png">

Lake Powell Drops to Record Low

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For the first time in the satellite era (since 1966), no hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic Basin to date, breaking the record for the latest date in the season. Two seasons previously held the record, with both Gustav (2002) and Humberto (2013) becoming the first hurricanes of their respective seasons at 8 am on September 11th. For the real nerds and weather historians out there, 1907 and 1914 did not have hurricanes either, but records in these years relied on observations from ships in the ocean or if a hurricane made landfall. Hurricanes could have formed in these years, but may have been missed due to a lack of satellites.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2098422798066798906" src="https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/2098422798066798906"></div>While there have been five named storms to date, they've all been tropical storms, producing limited energy. ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) measures total energy released by tropical cyclones and can be a good way to compare seasonal activity. So far, the Atlantic has produced less than 10% of its average ACE, while the Pacific has been nearly doubling what's expected.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-20 071102-1789911143975.png"><h1>El Niño Continues to Crush Atlantic Activity, Set To Break Records</h1>It's not surprising the Atlantic has been quiet while activity in the Pacific has been exploding. El Niño continues to break records and is expected to be the strongest on record as it peaks from the fall into the winter. El Niño is a global weather pattern, characterized by a shift in wind direction which pushes warm water east across the equator toward South America. These warmer water temperatures fuel tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific, but the warm water also alters the behavior of trade winds in the Atlantic. The increased wind shear from the trades often tears apart tropical systems as they try to get organized.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-16 074742-1789566465249.png">El Niño is expected to continue to intensify through the end of hurricane season, with a gradual wind down through the late winter and spring months. This should continue to limit tropical activity in the Atlantic, but that doesn't mean additional systems can't form and hit the United States. Remember, while wind shear increases over most of the Atlantic during strong El Niño events, the Gulf and western Atlantic (off the east coast of the US) can have less shear, leading to a better chance of systems forming closer to the coast. We've already experienced that several times this season with tropical storms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-10 124853-1789066432246.png">

No Hurricanes Yet in the Atlantic, A New Record

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[<a href="https://cpo.noaa.gov/News/News-Article/ArtMID/6226/ArticleID/1708/New-study-elucidates-the-role-of-atmospheric-rivers-in-future-precipitation-regime-change-in-the-West" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NOAA</a>]  A new paper published recently in Scientific Reports explains the dominant mechanism for projected intensification of extreme precipitation in California and Western North America as part of the changing precipitation regime of this region. Previous work has shown the decreasing frequency of precipitation in all Mediterranean climate regions as they become more subtropical and the increasing intensity of precipitation (especially in California).

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-70827" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2017/01/Atmospheric-River.jpg" alt="" width="3248" height="2229" />

In this latest study, lead by Sasha Gershunov, with support from the <a href="https://www.adaptationclearinghouse.org/organizations/california-nevada-applications-program-cnap-risa.html">California-Nevada Applications Program (CNAP) - a NOAA RISA program,</a> the group identifies the dominant mechanism by which heavy precipitation becomes more extreme, atmospheric rivers. The results are not necessarily surprising as other studies have suggested intensification of atmospheric rivers, but the group has now explicitly linked this intensification of atmospheric rivers to changes in finely-resolved precipitation.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-111367" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2019/08/600600p6226EDNmainimg-ARprecip.png" alt="" width="339" height="600" />
This more mechanistic understanding of the intensification of heavy precipitation will help scientists interpret ongoing changes and make plans to manage water resources and flood risk in a progressively more volatile future.

New Study Highlights the Role of Atmospheric Rivers in Western Precipitation

Tropics: Watching Multiple Systems

The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active

More Flooding Concerns Out East

WHAT TO EXPECT Record rainfall was set today

Severe Storms For The Southeast To Start Your Week

WHAT TO EXPECT Things will be active in the s

Storms Continue to Pummel the Rockies

Severe storms and heavy rain have been target

Finally Cooling Down; Cold Front Arrives Just in Time for Fall

It's been a long, hot summer. That might be a

Lake Powell Drops to Record Low

The second largest reservoir in the United St

No Hurricanes Yet in the Atlantic, A New Record

For the first time in the satellite era (sinc