New Tropical Threat Emerging in Eastern Pacific After Hurricane Erik's Landfall

The 2025 Eastern Pacific hurricane season is off to a record-breaking start, with five named storms: Alvin, Barbara, Cosme, Dalila, and Erick. This level of early activity is well ahead of the seasonal average, which typically sees the first named storm by June 10, the second by June 24, and the third by July 6. Dalila forming on the 13th marked the fastest four storms to be named in the basin since record keeping began, beating 1974, which saw Dolores form by the 14th of June.

Now, there is a new area of concern in the Eastern Pacific. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms has roughly a 30 percent chance of development within the next 7 days. This area is currently located offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico.

Backtracking just a bit to Erick, its remanent moisture is expected to move into the United States. This will have a profound impact on New Mexico, with bringing rainfall into the region. New Mexico has been extremely dry and fires have been ongoing across the region. The rainfall is expected Sunday into early next week.

ATLANTIC

The Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1, has remained quiet with no named storms forming so far. This lack of activity is being attributed to three key atmospheric factors: persistent wind shear, marginally warm water temperatures, and the presence of Saharan dust.  

The Saharan dust, which often travels westward from Africa, can suppress tropical development by introducing dry, stable air into the atmosphere. In addition, wind shear is disrupting the organization of tropical waves and disturbances, preventing them from developing into more significant systems. While sea surface temperatures are warm enough to support storm formation, they are not as favorable as in recent years, further limiting activity. 

Although the Atlantic is off to a slow start, this is not unusual for June. Historically, tropical activity in the Atlantic does not typically ramp up until later in the summer, particularly in August and September, with the peak occurring around the 15th of September.

For now, the quiet beginning to the season is considered perfectly normal. The early season will more often see more tropical storms than hurricanes, but hurricanes can form and impact the United States, so it's always best to be prepared. Andrea is the first name on the list in the Atlantic in 2025.

NOAA and Colorado State are expecting an above-average season in the Atlantic Basin. Click here to read more.