Meteorologist Jesse Kelley is excited to join the talented staff at Weather Nation. Jesse spent most of his childhood in Birmingham, Alabama. The state of Alabama is prone to seeing various types of weather from severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and winter weather. For college, Jesse attended the University of South Alabama where he received his degree in Broadcast Meteorology along with minors in Math and Geography. From Alabama, Jesse started his broadcast television working three years at KAVU-TV in Victoria. Recently, he finished a stint in Shreveport, LA. Jesse and his wife are looking forward to making the Rocky Mountains and Colorado home. If you would like to follow me, you can follow me on Twitter @JesseKelleywx and on Facebook at Meteorologist Jesse Kelley.

Jesse Kelley

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<p>The storm system that is keeping the Plains wet and stormy is pushing eastward into the Southeast. In addition, a non tropical low in the Gulf is sending moisture northward too to combine with Eastern Pacific moisture for a rain stretch. The forecast in early next week is calling over half a foot of rain in the next five days on the Gulf Coast. Rainfall amounts decrease the further north you go.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/1-1790906624562.png"></p><h1>Timing</h1><p>Showers and thunderstorms should increase off the Gulf and move inland throughout the day on Friday! A break in the storms will be possible during the overnight but more storms are likely for Saturday and especially Sunday as one of two cold fronts try to clear the Southeast. A reinforcing cold front will arrive on Monday in trying to dry out the area but some will be successful while others along the coast will not be.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/BARON 5-1790906999765.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><p>The long term forecast keeps the Gulf Coast very soggy into the middle of October. At least the temperatures are cooling off behind these fronts heading into the month of October.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/1-1790907287051.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/1-1790907318496.png"></p>

Heavy Rain Along Gulf Coast this Weekend

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Tracey Anthony

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<p>A trough of low pressure is pushing into the Central Plains and moisture from Hurricane Rachel is being lifted into the states. Flooding concerns will be in the place over the next few days.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1790896364545.png"></p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2105296615342809268" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2105296615342809268"></div><h1>Timing</h1><p>The upper-level trough will help enhance lift and drag a slow-moving boundary across the region early Friday. As Pacific and Gulf Moisture feed the system, rainfall becomes more plentiful. Storms will linger on Friday afternoon and evening, before the system slowly moves east.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/FORECAST-1790896400906.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Not surprisingly, with such a dynamic system, we could see a threat for severe storms through Thursday.</p><h1>Rain &amp; Flooding</h1><p>Rainfall totals through Friday will easily hit the 3-5" range for much of Central Texas and Oklahoma. Isolated totals could reach 6-8". We expect Flash Flood Watches to be issued in the region very soon.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-30 120207-1790791423473.png"></p><p><strong>Moderate</strong> risks for flooding (level 3 out of 4) are in place into Friday morning. That will transition into a Slight risk for many of the same areas on Friday afternoon and evening.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/pic4-1790892250989.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/pic3-1790892329568.png"></p><h1>Drought</h1><p>Extreme summer heat and lack of precipitation have pushed parts of the south-central U.S. into Exceptional Drought (level 4 out of 4). Dallas has been breaking records for heat and dry conditions in September. Here is a look at the Dallas measurable rain Calendar for September. So many dry days!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/pic4-1790892654472.png"></p><p>They have shattered the previous record for consecutive days above 90°, with more than 100 in a row! These conditions are important because they will impact the way the ground handles the incoming rainfall. Think of it like a dry sponge. When you turn on the faucet, the water initially runs off. It takes a bit for it to start to absorb. If the rain runs off the hard ground, it goes into homes and businesses before being absorbed.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-29 052622-1790681195818.png"></p><p>For more on this forecast, tune in :30 past the hour for your full Central Regional.</p>

Flood Threat to Bring Big Changes to Texas

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<h1>Pacific Basin</h1><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active so far this hurricane season, and it shows no sign of slowing down.</span></p><h2>Polo</h2><p><strong>Hurricane Polo</strong> became yet another<strong> category 5 </strong>hurricane after undergoing extremely rapid intensification. Shortly after formation, it added 115 mph to its sustained wind speed in about 36 hours.</p><p>Polo once had a central pressure of 892 mb, the second-lowest on record (behind Patricia's insane 872 mb) in the satellite era in the Eastern Pacific. At the same time, its 180 mph sustained winds tie for third-strongest in the Basin.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-25 110849-1790356214761.png">Polo made landfall twice in Mexico.</p><h2>Rachel</h2><p>Rachel continues to trace the Mexico coastline, moving northwest through the week. It will strengthen to at least a Category 3 storm by Thursday, but will not have any direct impacts on land. It will likely make a left turn before the weekend south of the Baja California.</p><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1790897395142.png">Atlantic Basin</h1><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">Meanwhile, the Atlantic remains very quiet, as record wind shear continues to tear apart tropical waves moving off Africa. In fact, there is now a new record for the year since there has not been a hurricane formation. This is the first time in 60 years the Atlantic Basin has not seen a hurricane since the satellite era in 1966. Interestingly, the remnants of Fay are talking again and there is now a low chance for some tropical redevelopment. </span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 5-1790897493440.png"></p><h1><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">El Niño Fueling Pacific Activity</span></strong></h1><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-22 075045-1790085064967.png"></p><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">The surge in tropical activity comes as El Niño continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-28 194202-1790646127358.png"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">This year’s El Niño has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063433-1789216512410.png"></p>

Patrick Crawford

Tropical Update: EPAC Active; Atlantic clears September with no Hurricanes

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<h2></h2><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2105658995948281901" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2105658995948281901"></div><h2>WHAT TO EXPECT</h2><p>Tropical moisture from the remnants of Polo and the Gulf have surged north and met a frontal boundary. This has equaled a formula of very heavy rainfall. Flood alerts are in place through Thursday across portions of the plains and Midwest. The soils for this part of the country are already very saturated for many. This means adding more rainfall can lead to flooding of rivers, creeks, and streams, and flash flooding is not out of the question.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1790897782083.png"></p><h2>TIMING</h2><p>Rounds of heavy rain will continue on and off. Isolated areas of flooding will be possible. Friday, this low will move east, and we will see drier conditions by the end of the week.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/FORECAST-1790897919777.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>TOTALS</h2><p>Folks can expect very heavy rainfall, with most seeing around 2"- 4". Some localized areas of a half foot will be possible! Never try to drive through floodwaters, and make sure to take any flood alerts and warnings seriously. If you live in an area prone to flooding, make sure to have an action plan in place if flooding develops! </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 5-1790897796211.png"><br>Make sure to tune into WeatherNation for the latest forecast!</p>

Plains & Midwest: Slow Moving Storms Increase Flood Threat

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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<p>In the last month, the southwestern states of New Mexico and Arizona have seen their fair share of monsoon showers and storms.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2103622200872079365" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2103622200872079365"></div><p>This week, tropical moisture is pushing across the Southwest and plains. This tropical moisture, from Hurricane Polo, will bring the potential for significant flooding across the region.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/poloooo-1790728785495.png"></p><p></p><p>The flooding has already been seen across the Southwest, including Nevada.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2104753032432910655" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2104753032432910655"></div><p>A major push of this moisture will continue to move through.. Several more inches on top of what has already come down are expected. This can quickly lead to flash flooding and debris flows, especially over burn scars. The heaviest of the activity, now expected in Colorado and the Central Plains.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-30 054240-1790768613194.png">The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has a <strong>moderate</strong> (level 3 out of 4) flooding threat in place for portions of Colorado and New Mexico. The flooding threat will taper off by late-week.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/overnighssss-1790820790763.png">Make sure to tune into Weathernation for the latest updates on the forecast.</p>

Jackie Brown

Another Round of Flooding Possible for the Southwest

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<p style="margin: 0in; margin-bottom: .0001pt;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; color: #454545;">Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a></span></p>

Rob Bradley

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<p>Hurricane Nolo spared the Hawaiian Islands from another direct impact this season, instead stalling about 150 miles south of the Big Island before heading west. Heavy rain and wind still impacted the islands, and will continue through the middle of the week as Nolo swings past Kauai. Field correspondent Jonathan Petramala was on the Big Island to bring us those impacts over the weekend.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/LL_TRT 1.14_JP GIVES UPDATE ON NOLO_MS_E092626-1790520644996.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Forecast / Impacts</h1><p>Nolo's impacts, including flooding, are not done with yet for the Hawaiian Islands. As Nolo heads north through the midweek, heavy rain on it's eastern side will hit the western Hawaiian Islands. 3-5 inches of rain could fall on Kauai, bringing flooding to the region. Kauai sustained a  lot of damage just a few weeks back as Hurricane Lowell passed the island barely to the west.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-28 074803-1790603893032.png"></p><p>Nolo looks to stall for a day as it then slowly heads farther west, keeping some rain and wind impacts around through at least Thursday. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-28 074651-1790603234688.png"></p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/forecassssssss-1790557751613.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><h2>Wind / Waves</h2><p>As Nolo tracks west, wave heights will still be on the high side, bringing hazards to boaters and beach goers. Southward-facing beaches can see increased swell and surf over the next few days.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-28 075119-1790603514846.png">Stay with us on WeatherNation for the latest updates.</p>

Nolo Moving West; Flooding Still Possible on Kauai

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Brittany Lockley

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<p>A Nor'easter...in September? While most people think of winter when it comes to these intense coastal storms, they can happen in the fall. The impacts will only be a little different, mainly with heavy rain instead of snow, but coastal flooding, huge surf, and strong winds will continue to create significant hazards.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2104308771745083644" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2104308771745083644"></div><p>Winds across the northeast have reached over 60 mph in some areas.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-27 145019-1790542232428.png">Some of the greatest concerns were along the Mid-Atlantic coastline, where repeated high-tide cycles sent water into neighborhoods and businesses and washed out roadways. Communities that frequently experience tidal flooding like Bethany Beach saw conditions worsen as the storm churned offshore.<span style="color: rgb(36, 36, 36)">&nbsp;</span></p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2103462018682703967" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2103462018682703967"></div><p><span style="color: rgb(36, 36, 36)">The impacts of this nor'easter will be winding down today, but </span><strong>Coastal Flood Warnings </strong>and <strong>Advisories</strong> do remain in effect through the day, some through early Tuesday.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/through tuesdayyy-1790619954527.png">The immediate coastal flooding was quickly made worse as heavy rain dumped along the Northeast coast by the weekend.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/WEB 1-1790601969107.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/forecassss-1790620092951.png"> As the low weakens and stalls, the rain should break up and become less heavy through today. Lingering gusty winds, light rain, and strong surf are expected to last into early Tuesday as the low moves out of New England.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/noreassss-1790620031568.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Conditions should gradually improve as the storm weakens and moves away from the coast Monday, and more so Tuesday. However, dangerous surf and lingering coastal flooding could remain concerns even after the heaviest rainfall and strongest winds subside.<span style="color: rgb(36, 36, 36)">&nbsp;</span>Residents and travelers along the East Coast are encouraged to monitor local weather alerts, avoid flooded roadways, and use caution near beaches and other coastal areas as the storm continues to impact the region.<span style="color: rgb(36, 36, 36)">&nbsp; Tune into WeatherNation TV for the latest.</span></p>

Powerful Nor’easter Slams East Coast over the Weekend

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After an incredibly active and damaging 2017 tropical season, the outlook is in for this year from NOAA.

NOAA issued their seasonal forecast Thursday morning from Lakeland, Florida, calling for an average season. NOAA anticipates 10-16 named systems will form this season, with 5-9 of those becoming hurricanes, and of those, 3 becoming major hurricanes.

https://twitter.com/NOAA/status/999673689405886464

NOAA stresses that these forecasts do not account for the strength of systems, nor the impacts they may pose to land.

The possibility of a weak El Niño developing, along with near-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, are two of the factors driving this outlook.

NOAA also released their Pacific season outlook Wednesday, <a href="http://bit.ly/2ILUiNA" target="_blank" rel="noopener">you can read more here</a>.

<a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/">WeatherNation</a>  spoke with the lead seasonal forecaster, Dr. Gerry Bell, Thursday afternoon to discuss the outlook.

https://youtu.be/I2F-ZvdylCg

Right on cue, as hurricane season officially begins next week, June 1, we are already monitoring a tropical disturbance in the Gulf Of Mexico. <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/news/monitoring-tropical-development-gulf-weekend/">Click here to learn more.</a>

&nbsp;

Also, join us for Hurricane Prep Week all next week on WeatherNation.

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NOAA Announces Outlook for 2018 Tropical Season

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Flood Threat to Bring Big Changes to Texas

A trough of low pressure is pushing into the

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Pacific BasinThe Pacific Ocean has been incre

Plains & Midwest: Slow Moving Storms Increase Flood Threat

WHAT TO EXPECTTropical moisture from the remn

Another Round of Flooding Possible for the Southwest

In the last month, the southwestern states of

Nolo Moving West; Flooding Still Possible on Kauai

Hurricane Nolo spared the Hawaiian Islands fr

Powerful Nor’easter Slams East Coast over the Weekend

A Nor'easter...in September? While most peopl