Kevin Schneider

A021DDE71AA34C50BB5468289EA6B1D7jpeg-1699372868991.jpeg

The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active so far this hurricane season, and it shows no sign of slowing down. Meanwhile, the Atlantic remains mostly quiet, as record wind shear continues to tear apart tropical waves moving off Africa. While shear is high in the MDR, is hasn't been as robust farther north, where a new tropical storm developed early Sunday morning (above).<h1>Atlantic Basin</h1>Fay will slowly drift in the open Atlantic before turning back to the southwest, and moving away from the Azores. This system won't directly affect landmasses but could send some waves to the Azores or Canary Islands in the coming days. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-20 070413-1789909467764.png">The end of September and start of October could get interesting in the Atlantic Basin, as more widespread lift is expected to develop. Wind shear is still at a record high, which should be able to crush any waves coming off of Africa. Tropical development will have better potential in the western Atlantic and Gulf, where shear is much lower.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-17 091009-1789657855421.png"><h1>Eastern &amp; Central Pacific Basins</h1>Several systems are being monitored in the Pacific, with some impacts to land possible this week. Odalys formed Sunday morning, too, with another area likely needing a name soon to its east. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-20 070548-1789909618766.png">The question is what do these systems do to (a) each other and (b) land. When two systems develop this close to each other, there will be some interaction, where both spin around an imaginary point in the Pacific Ocean. But after that interaction, what else will be in place? A few things, actually. All of these factors lead to sizable spread in the outcomes, from landfall in western Mexico to a hurricane climbing northward. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-20 070952-1789909809568.png"><h1>El Niño Fueling Pacific Activity</h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-20 071102-1789909874054.png">The surge in tropical activity comes as El Niño continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-16 073748-1789565873978.png">This year’s El Nino has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063433-1789216512410.png">

Jackie Brown

Tropics: Two More Systems Named Sunday

Screenshot20260920070144png-1789909314720.png

A ridge of high pressure that's controlled the weather pattern in the U.S. for much of the past month is still calling the shots for the next couple of days. While folks under the ridge have dealt with record heat, storms tracking around the ridge in the north have continued to pummel the Midwest and East Coast with heavy rain and gusty winds.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2100200528651198923" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2100200528651198923"></div>The same storm track through the Midwest will persist into early Sunday, with several rounds of heavy rain anticipated. This will increase the flood threat before a drier pattern develops next week. Heavy rain will continue into Sunday for many of the same spots that were under the risk for flooding on Saturday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-20 071429-1789910149027.png"><h1>Storms &amp; Timing</h1>Overnight storms could be severe through the Midwest early Sunday, but more storms could redevelop for Sunday afternoon and get up to severe strength. Hail and damaging winds should be the primary weather threats.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/FORECASSSSS-1789927272561.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>For more info on your central regional forecast, tune into WeatherNation :30 past the hour every hour.

Flooding Threat Receding, But Continues Sunday

Screenshot20260920071155png-1789909926335.png

Severe storms and heavy rain have been targeting the Rockies since Thursday, when large hail began battering portions of Utah and Idaho. Two tornadoes were even captured on video in Utah on Friday, including the mountainside twister you see below!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/TORNADOINFRUITHEIGHTSUT-ezgif.com-video-to-gif-converter-1789822080945.gif"><h1>Flood Risk</h1>Saturday's storms produced some heavy rain, and flooding across Central Montana and Billings, MT, recorded a new daily rainfall record. As the upper low lingers across the Northern Rockies, additional flooding is possible where heavy rain has already fallen.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-20 072718-1789910855780.png">Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are expected from western Nebraska through southern Montana, with localized totals topping 3-5 inches.<h1>Severe Storms &amp; Timing</h1>With moisture in place and upslope flow aiding as a trigger, severe storms are possible again today. While large hail is the primary hazard today, all modes of severe weather are possible, including a tornado or two.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/THROUGH TONN-1789927046920.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/SEVERREE THREA -1789927053088.png">Storms will likely be most active in the afternoon, as daytime heating provides additional energy. As the upper-level low slowly moves eastward, so will the heaviest rain and severe storm chances. A few showers will linger into Monday morning, but aren't likely to cause additional issues.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/FIRESSS'-1789927064077.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Storms Continue to Pummel the Rockies

Screenshot20260919063225png-1789821148278.png

It's been a long, hot summer. That might be an understatement, actually, as<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202608"> the U.S. experienced it's hottest summer on record</a>! Areas like the Southwest were especially warm, but even through September the South and Southeast have been scorching! Just in time for fall, a cold front will be cutting across the country to start the week, dropping highs from the 90s to the 60s in some areas! While it won't be completely dry behind the front, many people will feel a significant cool down.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-20 073324-1789911238058.png">Unfortunately, for folks along the Gulf Coast and down into Florida, this front won't be strong enough to reach that far south, but for areas like Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Virginia, this will usher in a major change!Highs will drop 20-30 degrees in many areas from Sunday through Tuesday, including Oklahoma City and Washington D.C.!<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-20 073414-1789911266216.png">Autumnal Equinox</h1>Fall begins on Tuesday, at 8:04 pm ET, which is the exact time the suns rays cross over the equator the southern hemisphere begins to lean more toward the sun.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-19 093856-1789832359623.png">Both the vernal and autumnal equinox (Latin for equal night) marks the point of the year when the earth gets hit equally by the sun in both hemispheres. This is different from the winter and summer solstice, when the hemispheres reach their point of maximum inclination toward the sun.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-19 093913-1789832367580.png">

Finally Cooling Down; Cold Front Arrives Just in Time for Fall

20260920073508ezgifcomvideotogifconvertergif-1789911397551.gif

Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

RobBradleyjpeg-1679518597323.jpeg

The second largest reservoir in the United States now sits at its lowest level on record, following a dismal year for snowfall in the Central Rockies. Images released by NASA (top of page) show the contrast with 2017, which saw heavy snow during the preceding winter and thus, plentiful runoff during the spring and summer. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 131721-1789759308683.png">Downstream, Lake Mead and the Parker Dam are both at their lowest levels at to-date over the past 30 years. Both are also fed by the struggling Colorado River. River managers have had to take action to keep water levels above the threshold necessary to generate power, including releasing extra water from upstream basins and cancelling timed releases set to help native species survive on the river.<h1>Snowpack Determines River Levels</h1>While the Southwest Monsoon has had a solid season in 2026, those hit or miss thunderstorms are only a drop in the bucket compared to the water supplied to the Colorado River from melting snow. The river is fed by numerous mountain ranges in the Central and Southern Rockies, though most of the water comes from the mountains west of the continental divide in Colorado.<h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 131656-1789760441419.png"></h2>Snowpack in Colorado got a late surge in the Spring but was still near record lows, especially in Southwestern Colorado. Many ski resorts were forced to shut down a week to a month ahead of normal. The melt-off of the snowpack was the second earliest on record. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 134932-1789760993718.png">The deficit of precipitation is tremendous in many areas, but western Colorado stands out with the bright red colors, indicating at least 2 feet of water missing over the last year. Other mountain ranges that send runoff into the Colorado are also lagging well behind, with deficits of 1-2 feet widespread across the west. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 131534-1789761117664.png"><h1>Winter Outlook</h1>The surging El Niño could offer some help in the form of heavy precipitation. Wetter than average conditions are favored across much of the west, with near normal precipitation favored for much of the Upper Colorado River Basin. Unfortunately after many years of below average precipitation, it would likely take many successive seasons to help the river return to normal. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 135826-1789761517713.png">

Lake Powell Drops to Record Low

ezgif3dfd7e7864788820gif-1789758638505.gif

For the first time in the satellite era (since 1966), no hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic Basin to date, breaking the record for the latest date in the season. Two seasons previously held the record, with both Gustav (2002) and Humberto (2013) becoming the first hurricanes of their respective seasons at 8 am on September 11th. For the real nerds and weather historians out there, 1907 and 1914 did not have hurricanes either, but records in these years relied on observations from ships in the ocean or if a hurricane made landfall. Hurricanes could have formed in these years, but may have been missed due to a lack of satellites.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2098422798066798906" src="https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/2098422798066798906"></div>While there have been five named storms to date, they've all been tropical storms, producing limited energy. ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) measures total energy released by tropical cyclones and can be a good way to compare seasonal activity. So far, the Atlantic has produced less than 10% of its average ACE, while the Pacific has been nearly doubling what's expected.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-20 071102-1789911143975.png"><h1>El Niño Continues to Crush Atlantic Activity, Set To Break Records</h1>It's not surprising the Atlantic has been quiet while activity in the Pacific has been exploding. El Niño continues to break records and is expected to be the strongest on record as it peaks from the fall into the winter. El Niño is a global weather pattern, characterized by a shift in wind direction which pushes warm water east across the equator toward South America. These warmer water temperatures fuel tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific, but the warm water also alters the behavior of trade winds in the Atlantic. The increased wind shear from the trades often tears apart tropical systems as they try to get organized.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-16 074742-1789566465249.png">El Niño is expected to continue to intensify through the end of hurricane season, with a gradual wind down through the late winter and spring months. This should continue to limit tropical activity in the Atlantic, but that doesn't mean additional systems can't form and hit the United States. Remember, while wind shear increases over most of the Atlantic during strong El Niño events, the Gulf and western Atlantic (off the east coast of the US) can have less shear, leading to a better chance of systems forming closer to the coast. We've already experienced that several times this season with tropical storms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-10 124853-1789066432246.png">

No Hurricanes Yet in the Atlantic, A New Record

Screenshot20260910125802png-1789066688561.png

Tracey Anthony

Tracey2jpeg-1737574224773.jpeg

No surprise here: More records were broken across the Southern U.S. on Friday (above). The heat paired with very dry conditions, is now leading to brush &amp; wildfire issues for the South Central Plains<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2100336425468387653" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2100336425468387653"></div>Heat Advisories remain in place through Saturday. Temperatures will be hot and the humidity will make it feel even hotter.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/1-1789784154000.png">On Saturday, temperatures will be hot for many. But with the temperatures combined with the humidity, things are going to be hot. With the humidity spots like Little Rock will feel like 106°. New Orleans will have a high of 90°, but will feel like 96°.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/1-1789784197337.png">Weekend Sports games will still have brutal heat.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/WEB 8-1789739906792.png">Some short term relief will be in the cards for some...<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/WEB 9-1789739883665.png">...but the longer-range forecast does not bring much relief in sight. There remains a higher confidence that temperatures will stay above normal through mid-late September.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-16 045119-1789555890283.png">

Jesse Kelley

Summer Heat Holds it's Grip on the South

1png-1789784040267.png

Storms return to the forecast for the Northwestern U.S. today but the rain chances don't help the fire danger in the area. Fire weather alerts are out for Oregon, Washington, Idaho and Montana Thursday and Friday afternoons.
<img class="alignnone wp-image-95533 size-large" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/08/1-14-728x408.jpg" alt="Northwest Storm Chances Hurt, Not Help, Fire Danger" width="728" height="408" />

Although storm chances will return to the region, relative humidity is low. This means the air is dry and there is a greater chance of some, or all, of the moisture evaporating before it hits the surface. This increases the risk of "dry thunderstorms." Here's a breakdown of how these storms increase fire danger:

&nbsp;

First- a high based thunderstorm develops. The higher the base, the more dry air the rain has to pass through before reaching the surface. This leads to virga, or the rain evaporating before it touches the ground. This leaves the ground dry.
<img class="alignnone wp-image-95536 size-large" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/08/3-13-728x408.jpg" alt="Northwest Storm Chances Hurt, Not Help, Fire Danger" width="728" height="408" />

Second- the storm produces lightning. This still reaches the ground, which has remained dry, and could ignite brush on the surface.
<img class="alignnone wp-image-95537 size-large" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/08/4-12-728x408.jpg" alt="Northwest Storm Chances Hurt, Not Help, Fire Danger" width="728" height="408" /> <img class="alignnone wp-image-95538 size-large" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/08/5-4-728x408.jpg" alt="Northwest Storm Chances Hurt, Not Help, Fire Danger" width="728" height="408" />

Third- gusty winds from the storm fuel the flames and could create a large wildfire in a short period of time.
<img class="alignnone wp-image-95539 size-large" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/08/6-1-728x408.jpg" alt="Northwest Storm Chances Hurt, Not Help, Fire Danger" width="728" height="408" />

For <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/">WeatherNation</a>: Meteorologist <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/team/emily-roehler/">Emily Roehler</a>