On Thursday, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued the outlook for November. Like previous months, warmer than average weather is predicted for many areas of the nation: the East, South, and most of the West. Drier than normal weather is forecast for the southern half of the nation. The Great Lakes and Northwest are expected to see above average precipitation.
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Earlier this month, La Nina conditions were observed in the Pacific Ocean. Those observations are the driving force behind the trends for the November outlook, as a moderate strength La Nina is predicted for the month. Coastal sea surface temperatures and model forecasts also influenced the outlook.
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La Nina occurs when the waters of the Pacific Ocean show a general trend of cooling, the opposite of an El Nino. During La Nina periods, the Jet Stream is less active in the Southern U.S. This usually leads to less storms systems and below average precipitation. Cooler than normal weather typically occurs across the northern tier of the country and occasionally wetter periods as well.