Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic Severe Outlook

27 Sep 2020, 2:01 pm

The same cold front that has been responsible for severe weather in the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region this past weekend will bring the threat for more storms extending from the Ohio Valley through the southeastern states to start off the work week on Monday. These marginally-severe thunderstorms (level 1 out of 5) bring the potential for isolated strong to damaging wind gusts along the cold front.

Severe Outlook – Monday

From the Ohio Valley extending all the way south along the front will have the highest chance for severe storms. There is not a lot of instability along this frontal axis, hence the reason a marginal risk (the lowest risk from the Storm Prediction Center Outlook) has been issued. Along the front this risk will account for isolated damaging wind gusts as our main severe weather threat.

Forecast

Storms will organize along cold front and track east into the overnight hours. As we follow these storms the Mid-Atlantic is next to see the severe weather potential as we head into Tuesday.

Severe Outlook – Tuesday

By Tuesday, the Mid-Atlantic states are next in line to see thunderstorms. Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina are under a marginal risk for severe storms as seen below.

Forecast

By Tuesday in the Mid-Atlantic states there will be a modest amount of moisture and instability ahead of the surface cold front and upper level trough. There may be some supper with moderate shear based on the position of the upper level trough but there are still some uncertainties in the forecast.

The risk for excessive rain in the Mid-Atlantic increases by Tuesday with ample moisture available.

The Weather Prediction Center is responsible for issuing excessive rainfall outlooks and is forecasting for excessive rain along the I-95 corridor from Tuesday into Wednesday with up to 1-3″ in some isolated areas.

An extensive cold front will bring widespread rain from the Great Plains through the East Coast over the next three days, with the potential for flash flooding along the I-95 corridor Tuesday into Wednesday. Visit https://t.co/IbuM2cGag8 for the latest precipitation forecast. pic.twitter.com/8Ac1DsQ5Ex

— NWS Weather Prediction Center (@NWSWPC) September 27, 2020

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About the author

Alana Cameron

Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where sh... Load Moree completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!