Kevin Schneider

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CENTRAL U.S - A trough that came in from the Pacific, moved over the Rockies, and is now stuck in the Plains has been responsible for severe storms across the High Plains. It's now pushing into the Central Plains, ushering a slow-moving cold front through the area. Massive hail smashed windshields in Nebraska as a result (above)Related: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/north-dakota-breaks-yearly-tornado-record">Dakota Tornado Record Falls Over the Weekend</a>Today, the front is moving southward, bringing the threat of more hailstones and damaging winds, with an outside chance of a tornado. Storms will continue to blossom in coverage through the overnight hours. The SPC has issued a SLIGHT (level 2 out of 5) and MARGINAL (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe weather through tonight.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 134139-1758138108900.png"><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/New Baron Video 3-1758136301489.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The severe risk along this front continues through tomorrow as well. The SPC has issued a MARGINAL (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe storms across portions of Missouri, Oklahoma, Iowa, Arkansas, and Kansas. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 133903-1758138244278.png">Farther north, the flooding threat will be one to contend with. Over the next few days, multiple chances for rain could overwhelm already saturated grounds. We have seen flooding across portions of the Northern Plains, and this threat will continue through this week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 134505-1758138313831.png">Always use caution with flood waters, as you never know how deep the water is. Turn Around, Don't Drown.

Alana Cameron

Storms Slide Down the Plains Today

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

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NORTH CAROLINA - These abandoned houses were no match for the powerful swells generated by the Mid-Atlantic coastal low, which brought high surf, flooding, and heavy rain to the Outer Banks.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1968155451767337227" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1968155451767337227"></div>Since 2020, 12 homes have been swept away into the Atlantic Ocean in the Outer Banks, including this latest event, as well as the large swells from Hurricane Erin back in August. Why are so many homes being swept away, you may ask? In many cases, what protected a house decades ago is no longer sufficient because the shore has receded, sea levels are higher, and strong storms have been more frequent or powerful.<h2>Forecast Rainfall</h2>Arguably, the biggest impact of this low spinning onshore will be the rainfall, especially where it falls. Over the last couple of days, these areas have been inundated with an excessive amount of rain, with the largest totals staying in Virginia and Maryland.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 134538-1758138342706.png">An excessive rainfall outlook has been issued through tonight for rainfall totals for any additional flooding possible in Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia, but the heaviest of the rain has already occurred.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 134803-1758138517386.png"><h1>Forecast Winds</h1>It might not be "tropical," but the highest wind gusts could approach tropical-storm-force at times. It looks like it might not be the wind that causes a ton of problems, but the direction of the wind: coastal flooding and rip current risks could pose some dangerous problems at times. Coastal inundation is only expected to approach a foot or two in low-lying, susceptible areas of the coast but the rip current risk is high along the shorelines.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Web1-1758107888500.png">

More Homes Succumb To The Atlantic Ocean

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We are now a week after the climatological peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season, so where is the activity? Several factors contribute to this season being extremely quiet so far. For one, it has been dry and stable with more wind shear around the Atlantic Basin. That has helped limit storm development off the coast of Africa. Tropical Depression Seven has strengthened into Tropical Storm Gabrielle. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 030509-1758099925464.png">Currently, there is no direct hazard to land, however it might be a close call for the island of Bermuda. Many of the spaghetti plots that take it out to sea sooner are stronger - if it were to remain weak, it could affect some islands, but it might not be a tropical storm at that point.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 090107-1758121397706.png">Meanwhile, in the next few days, a plume of Saharan dust will move around the tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic, reducing chances for thunderstorms to organize, but there is a potential for some slow development after the fact.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/09-16 saharan dust-1758076139006.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>There is another tropical wave that the NHC is also monitoring set to roll off of the west coast of Africa. Nothing is expected to develop in the next few days, with the earliest timeline starting this weekend for that one<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 202919-1758076167654.png">Do not let your guard down! September is historically the peak of hurricane season, and ocean conditions remain favorable for additional development. However, the NHC urges residents along the Atlantic basin to monitor updates closely.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/W2bhqfX0B0A" start="0"></iframe></div>What is slightly concerning are the water temperatures in the Gulf. Right now, they are 1°C warmer than they usually are for this time of the year. That being said, it's been tough to get anything over those warm waters so far this season-let's hope that continues.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-13 051452-1757762098585.jpg">As always, preparedness is key. Whether or not this particular system develops into a named storm, it serves as a reminder that the Atlantic remains active and that the window for tropical threats is far from closed. Tune into WeatherNation TV for the latest updates.

Jesse Kelley

ATLANTIC: Gabrielle Forms in the Atlantic

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The dry time has been a little hard to enjoy the last week or two in South Florida. While this is the rainy season, and we're making up for a slow start to it, you can still roll your eyes at what the extended forecasts have looked like recently. In fact, some spots in South Florida have already had their wettest start to September, including Miami.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 163631-1758062210080.png">On the other end of the spectrum, some northern Florida spots have really missed out, making it the driest start to September in areas such as Gainesville and Tallahassee.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 163641-1758062216443.png">So why? Just because Florida likes to have the most fun? Well, actually, a frontal boundary keeps these storms coming for days. While we've had a couple of days of relief, more moisture is in the forecast for South Florida.That, along with a TON of moisture to work with, is attempting to catch up some drought-stricken areas of the Sunshine State. The Drought Monitor updated on Thursday and had some pretty sizeable improvements in South Florida.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/2025-09-11 09-39-57-1757605257541.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>So while it might be easy to complain about beach plans constantly getting ruined, it has its benefits. Our biggest concern is the lightning threat associated with any Florida thunderstorm, but especially this time of year, with people outdoors. Anytime it rains this heavily, of course, the flash flooding threat will be there as well. Some areas could receive another 3-5 inches, or even more, before the rain chances start to back off next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/web1-1758127072858.png">

Adrian Hernandez

Florida Rainfall: Nuisance or Beneficial?

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While the Atlantic has been relatively quiet this season, the Eastern Pacific has been more active, particularly in recent months. Early Saturday morning, Mario dissipated southwest of the Baja Peninsula, only to reemerge Sunday morning as a tropical storm. One other tropical wave has a likely chance of developing over the next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 184318-1757983404971.png"><h1>Bye Bye Mario</h1>Mario has once again weakened upon encountering cooler sea surface temperatures and enhanced shear. It became post-tropical once and for all Tuesday night. The leftover moisture from Mario is expected to drift north, landing in Southern California by mid-to-late week, possibly leading to flooding.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/09-15_rsw mario-1757983442769.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>It's more about where that moisture is heading: into southern California. Downtown LA hasn't seen rain since the beginning of JUNE!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 104048-1758127280118.png">The tropical nature of the rainfall could lead to some flooding in southern California and Arizona on Thursday. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 104616-1758127716967.png">

Eastern Pacific: Mario Fizzles, But Sends Moisture to Cali

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Did you see them? Many might have had better things to do this weekend but if you were paying attention to Space Weather, you got a treat! NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center upped the expectation late last night, with some dazzling results.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1967422118729273403" src="https://x.com/NWSSWPC/status/1967422118729273403"></div>The problem for many in the plains was cloud-cover, with evening storms making it difficult to see the lights behind the lightning, but some were lucky to sneak between the clouds.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 092335-1757950156965.png">Granted, it might have been difficult to see with the naked eye. Many of the photos we've seen have mentioned a long exposure that was needed to see the fun. Either way, it's gorgeous if you can figure it out.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 092324-1757950271340.png">While it wasn't the most robust solar storm we've seen in the past 2 years, it was well worth it for some! We're not expecting another show, however.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 134825-1757965711698.png">

Jackie Brown

Northern Lights Close Out the Weekend For Many

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Grab the pumpkin spice and apple cider donuts, fall foliage is started to grace some areas across the United States, with more developing this week! The latest forecast from <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.explorefall.com/fall-foliage-map">Explore Fall</a> (top of page) shows developing color across the Rockies, Cascades, High Sierra, and the Upper-Midwest, near the Canadian border, over the next seven days (September 8th - 14th). Recent wildfire activity in the Sierra may make color there a bit more muted or highly variable between patches of trees. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 104753-1757350314424.png">Color has already been showing some for areas in the map above (yellow areas), mostly in the Rockies and Cascades. In fact, we've seen the Bigtooth Maples change quite a bit in the Wasatch Mountains near Salt Lake City!<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1964055938010067402" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1964055938010067402"></div>The most 30 days prior to the appearance of fall color are the most important for vibrancy during the peak season, but drought conditions can also lead to more muted color or variable conditions. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 105237-1757350392233.png">For great fall color, sunny days with cool, crisp nights are preferable. Though rain is welcome at times to keep the trees from drying out.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 105303-1757350398827.png">

Fall Color Starting to Show In Parts of the Lower 48

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The severe weather threat will be shifting east today and the risk for heavy rain, damaging winds and tornadoes will continue throughout Thursday for parts of the Gulf Coast.  Flooding potential will be high with the chance for several inches of rainfall.  Here is the very latest.
<h2>Forecast</h2>
<img class="alignnone wp-image-89481 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/Capture5-18.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

The key ingredient today will be the extremely high moisture moving north out of the Gulf of Mexico.  This will be the fuel for heavy showers and storms and the risk of severe weather for the late morning and early afternoon.
<h2>Severe Outlook</h2>
All of the severe weather risks will be in the forecast today.  Damaging winds, heavy rain and tornadoes will be the highest risk with hail chances being on the lower side.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-89482 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/Bomb-11.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-89483 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/Capture-26.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-89484 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/Capture2-22.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-89485 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/Capture3-21.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />
<h2>Timing</h2>
<img class="alignnone wp-image-89486 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/Capture6-9.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-89487 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/Capture7-6.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

The latest timing of the severe storms will be in the late morning and early afternoon hours.  There will likely be a tornado watch issued for parts of Mississippi and Alabama later this morning so stay tuned.  WeatherNation will be covering these storms all morning and all afternoon.  Keep checking back for updates...also, you can download our free WeatherNation App where you can watch WeatherNation On-Air anytime!!!

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<a href="https://www.facebook.com/MeteorologistPC/">Meteorologist Patrick Crawford</a>

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Severe Weather Chances for the Southern Gulf Coast States Thursday

Forecast

Severe Outlook

Timing

Storms Slide Down the Plains Today

CENTRAL U.S - A trough that came in from the

More Homes Succumb To The Atlantic Ocean

NORTH CAROLINA - These abandoned houses were

ATLANTIC: Gabrielle Forms in the Atlantic

We are now a week after the climatological pe

Florida Rainfall: Nuisance or Beneficial?

The dry time has been a little hard to enjoy

Eastern Pacific: Mario Fizzles, But Sends Moisture to Cali

While the Atlantic has been relatively quiet

Northern Lights Close Out the Weekend For Many

Did you see them? Many might have had better

Fall Color Starting to Show In Parts of the Lower 48

Grab the pumpkin spice and apple cider donuts