Kevin Schneider

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The National Hurricane Center upgraded the chance for tropical formation late Monday. There's now about a 40% chance in the next 48 hours of formation. This area is denoted the title AL93, or Invest 93L, since they're running the hurricane models on this area of low pressure. The development of tropical characteristics, however, may only matter in name alone.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/lklkhh-1752628482805.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Forecast Models</h1>Since this is an area of investigation, there are forecast models, commonly referred to as spaghetti plots. According to the NHC, this system is forecast to move west across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday before moving into the northeastern Gulf mid-week. Conditions remain favorable for additional development, and if it remains offshore, it could become a tropical depression later this week.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/sphagettis-1752628561366.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Forecast Factors</h1>Why is the northern Gulf being highlighted for development in the middle of July? Models favor upper-level troughing to develop over the region toward the middle of the week, which is likely to spur lift and heavy rain. An area of high pressure will slide west by Thursday, helping steer our system to the north, into land. Where that happens is still up in the air. It will depend on the strength of both the system and the high.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/tomer invest steering-1752603031336.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Warm water is a necessary ingredient for tropical formation, and temperatures in the Gulf are plenty warm to fuel tropical systems. Typically, sea-surface temperatures in the upper 70s are needed for tropical cyclone development.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Web 2-1752495335806.png">Water temperatures tend to warm more quickly early in the season in the Gulf and western Atlantic. However, with the presence of some elevated wind shear, conditions won't be the richest for development. That interaction with wind shear and some lingering dry air could help limit any rapid development.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-15 055224-1752580353462.jpg">As we continue to iron out the details of this system, check back with the forecast, especially if you have interests along any of the Gulf Coast states.

Alana Cameron

Monitoring "Invest 93L" Near Florida

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A cold front pushing through the Eastern Seaboard was responsible for dozens of reports of flash flooding on Monday, so much so that the Governor of New Jersey declared a State of Emergency for flash flooding.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1945122429342282186" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1945122429342282186"></div><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-14 205829-1752548331902.png">The flash flooding in the Northeast on Monday led to airport delays at Newark, JFK, and LaGuardia. Many areas broke numerous records for the day.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-15 061632-1752581880381.jpg"><h1>MORE FLOODING POSSIBLE</h1>Storms have tapered off for most, but some isolated storms can bring heavy rain overnight. We can see more rounds of rain on Wednesday and Thursday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/overnghss-1752628158860.png">Our next system pushes in from the west and will bring a more widespread threat of heavy rainfall. The next round moves through along a frontal boundary, and anyone who gets caught under one of these storms will have to contend with the efficient rain producers and their slow movement. Here's what it could look like over the next few days:<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/fdq-1752627620010.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

More Rounds of Rain In Northeast

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

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Heat advisories have been issued across the country through Wednesday for most of the country and through Thursday for the northeast for dangerously hot temperatures that could bring impacts to your health and safety.<h2>Western U.S.</h2>Heat advisories remain in effect across much of the West through Wednesday, following a stretch of extreme temperatures that began over the weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-15 143757-1752611955925.png">It’s no surprise the desert feels like a desert, but if you're visiting for summer vacation, take these numbers seriously. Temperatures well over 100°F can overwhelm your body, so stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade or indoors.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-15 143626-1752611999736.png">Even the Pacific Northwest is heating up, with temperatures running 10–20 degrees above average by Wednesday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-15 143630-1752612026018.png"><h2>Eastern U.S.</h2>Looking ahead, the next surge of summer heat shifts back toward the East. Heat advisories are in place across the Southeast, where the heat index will be the primary danger.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/hea-1752628644893.png">While thermometers may read in the 90s, the humidity will make it feel closer to 110°F in some spots.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-15 143649-1752612100658.png">The Northeast is also under heat alerts through midweek. Highs will feel like the upper 90s for many, and cities like Boston could see heat index values as high as 101°F.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-15 143645-1752612113919.png">Temperatures here will feel more like the upper 90s for some. Boston could feel as hot as 101 degrees.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-15 143700-1752612123385.png"><h2>Looking Ahead</h2>Forecast trends over the next 6-10 days continue to favor above-average temperatures across much of the country. Stay weather-aware and take heat seriously—your health depends on it.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Web 5-1752584243924.png">

Heat Alerts in Effect Nationwide Through Wednesday

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Chris Tomer

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A strong July cold front is racing through the Northern Rockies and Dakotas. Cities that were in the 90s are now in the 60s. That cold front and temperature contrast also sparks a severe weather risk. Temperatures are well below average across the north-central plains.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/cooler air-1752628088005.png"><h1>Severe Weather Outlook</h1>SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) for severe weather overnight. In addition to your typical severe weather hazards, there is a significant wind threat, where winds could exceed 75 mph.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/overnightsssddd-1752627984858.png">The SPC has also issued a Slight Risk (yellow color) through Wednesday across Chicago, IL, Madison, WI, Denver, CO, and Cheyenne, WY. Watch out for large hail and damaging wind gusts.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-15 143302-1752611588233.png">Forecast TimingStorms will ride along a frontal boundary as it moves east. Cities like Minneapolis and Sioux City will have a wet start to your Wednesday morning.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/coldys-1752627378609.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Stay with WeatherNation for the latest.

Jackie Brown

Strong July Cold Front Sparks Severe Weather

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Tracey Anthony

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It has been 10 days since the devastating floods swept through the Texas Hill Country, and our hearts remain with the communities still recovering. And before they could catch their breath more rain inundated the same region once again. Over the past three days, torrential rains overwhelmed rivers, roads, and communities from July 12 to July 14.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1944509640995197415" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1944509640995197415"></div>Emergency services were stretched thin, and water rescues were carried out across the region. In San Saba County, a flash flood emergency was declared, and search operations along the Guadalupe River were temporarily suspended due to dangerous conditions.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1944736134921105772" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1944736134921105772"></div>The Weather Prediction Center has kept a Slight risk along the Big Bend of Texas. Localized heavy rain will be possible on top of the already saturated soils, bringing more flooding concerns.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Web 1-1752582449839.png">Rain Forecast</h1>We're forecasting a few pockets of 1-3 inches of rain accumulation.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/tomer tx rain forecast-1752603263750.jpg">Flood Watches continue for Texas for the potential of continued heavy rain. Additional watches have been issued for eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas too.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Web 4-1752582717953.png">Although this week shows a significant drying trend, there will be some very isolated rain potential, mainly during the afternoon hours.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Web 3-1752582590392.png">Tune in to WeatherNation for live updates throughout the hour.

Flash Flooding Threat Continues in Texas

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Keep the rain boots handy in Florida - heavy rain is expected to inundate parts of the state from the end of the weekend into the middle of the upcoming week. Rainfall totals are expected to average 3-6" in Central and South Florida, with higher totals likely for areas that see multiple heavy downpours. Some locations may end up with 7-10" of rain by the time this storm system moves out.This system could develop into our next tropical system. Read more on the tropical discussion here: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/medium-range-hurricane-forecast-favors-gulf-csu-updates-seasonal-forecast">Atlantic Basin Tropical Update</a> <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-12 063516-1752323878845.png">A mid-level low-pressure system will approach the coast from the Atlantic by Sunday, moving over the state on Monday, creating widespread heavy rain.<h1>Forecast</h1>Strong storms are expected to fire up in the afternoons, but evening and overnight storms are possible thanks to the extra lift created by the low. Monday looks quite wet, especially in Central and South Florida.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2025-07-14 08-13-49-1752498076656.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Flood Outlooks</h1>Flood outlooks have been issued from Sunday through Wednesday, with additional heavy downpours possible after Wednesday as well. Avoid low-lying areas when heavy rain begins to fall and, if flash flood warnings are issued, seek higher ground!<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2025-07-14 09-00-09-1752498053476.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Heavy Rain, Flooding Threat Returns to Florida

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Friday was another busy day with severe weather and flash flooding. A Flash Flood Emergency was issued for Davenport, IA after they picked up over four inches of rain. The winds from Friday's storms were over 70 plus mph!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-12 055745-1752321471706.png"><h1>Timing</h1>Friday's leftover storms will be the catalyst for additional shower and thunderstorm development across parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Saturday, as will the frontal boundary that moves into the region. The surface low could also help to spur a few supercells, capable of producing a tornado or two in eastern Michigan, primarily from the late morning through mid-afternoon.<h1>SATURDAY</h1><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/FORECAST-1752352202968.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>As the front continues to move, strong thunderstorms may redevelop early Saturday over the central High Plains. Behind the front, a high-pressure system ushering in cooler, drier air from western Canada will settle over the northern High Plains, bringing a temporary break from the stormy conditions. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/PIC 1-1752352628146.jpg">Rainfall rates will remain high, with 1-2" of rain per hour possible. This could lead to rain totals surpassing 4-5 inches in some areas that see multiple rounds of storms or slow moving storms. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-12 055618-1752321436549.png">

Patrick Crawford

Severe Storm Risk Pushes into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley

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Thursday's most active weather will be found across the Upper Midwest. The region will likely see numerous severe storms through the day with the threat for tornadoes, hail and damaging winds. Have a severe weather plan in place and make sure you have a way to stay up to date on the latest weather information if you live in the areas within the severe weather outline:

<img class="alignnone wp-image-97323 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/09/1-14.jpg" alt="Severe Weather, Flooding for Upper Midwest" width="1920" height="1080" />

Storms will fire along a warm front which lifts north through the day. Behind the front expect quieter, but warm, conditions. Cooler, drier air sweeps in Friday into the start of the weekend.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-97324 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/09/2-12.jpg" alt="Severe Weather, Flooding for Upper Midwest" width="1920" height="1080" />

Heavy rain comes with these storms, totals could reach above 3" in some areas. Flood alerts are out into Thursday evening, river and stream flooding concerns continue into next week.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-97325 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/09/3-10.jpg" alt="Severe Weather, Flooding for Upper Midwest" width="1920" height="1080" />

The severe weather threat shifts east Friday along with the same frontal system. Be on the look out for severe storms across the Northeast for the end of the work week.

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For Weather Nation: Meteorologist <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/team/emily-roehler/">Emily Roehler</a>