Kevin Schneider

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Secondary severe weather season is getting started now that cold air masses are diving into the south, meeting warm and moist air from the Gulf. A strong trough will move out of the Rockies on Monday, leading to the development of a surface low and cold front, which will help focus strong and severe storms in the Plains and Midwest to start the week.<h1>Forecast</h1>Severe storm chances ramp up from Oklahoma City to Kansas City through the afternoon, shifting slightly east into the evening. Storms could develop farther south into Texas late in the evening, with a squall line that could drop across Texas into the morning hours on Tuesday. Heavy rain and strong storms continue to shift east Tuesday, toward the South and Central Gulf.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/2026-11-02 04-38-49-1793619557805.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Outlooks</h1>An Enhanced risk has been issued into the Central and Southern Plains, with a wide slight risk draped down to Texas. All threats of severe weather (hail, wind, tornadoes) are possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-02 112945-1793644212481.png">A Marginal risk for severe weather remains through Tuesday. Storms will press east along the frontal boundary, with damaging winds and a tornado possible with the strongest storms. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-02 044028-1793619651618.png">Heavy rain could lead to isolated or scattered flash flooding. Areas around the Lower Mississippi Valley certainly need some rainfall, as extreme and exceptional drought have expanded recently, but rainfall rates could lead to drainage systems getting overwhelmed.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-02 044137-1793619712816.png">More on your Central Regional forecast can always be found :30 past the hour on WeatherNation.

Severe Storms Target the Plains & South to Start the Week

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Tracey Anthony

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November is underway, but hurricane season isn’t over just yet. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring two areas of interest across the Atlantic and Pacific, including a disturbance that could become a tropical depression later this week.While there are currently no active tropical cyclones in either basin, forecasters are keeping an eye on potential development over the next several days.Atlantic: Possible Subtropical Development Northeast of the BahamasAn area of low pressure is expected to form along a weakening frontal boundary a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas in the coming days.According to the NHC, the system could gradually acquire subtropical characteristics late this week as it drifts over the western Atlantic.However, the window for development appears limited. By the weekend, the system is expected to move eastward or northeastward into an environment less favorable for organization.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/2026-11-02 09-08-45-1793635741608.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The NHC currently gives this system a 20% chance of development over the next seven days, with formation chances near zero during the next 48 hours.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-02 090915-1793635784869.png">At this time, no tropical cyclone has formed, and the system remains an area to monitor rather than an organized storm.Pacific: Tropical Depression Likely Later This WeekThe Pacific has a more promising setup for tropical development.A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual strengthening and organization as the disturbance tracks westward to west-northwestward at approximately 10 to 15 mph.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/2026-11-02 09-10-11-1793635838000.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The NHC says a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter portions of this week over the Central Pacific.Formation probabilities currently stand at:<ul><li>Next 48 hours: 20% (low)</li><li>Next 7 days: 70% (high)</li></ul>Although the system is located well away from the Hawaiian Islands, its development and movement across the Central Pacific will be worth watching in the days ahead.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-02 091058-1793635869996.png">Hurricane Season Isn’t Over YetAlthough tropical activity typically decreases as fall progresses, the Atlantic hurricane season officially continues through November 30.The Eastern Pacific hurricane season also runs through November 30.For now, neither disturbance has developed into a tropical cyclone, but the Pacific system has the greater potential for organization this week.WeatherNation will continue monitoring both areas of interest and provide updates as new information becomes available from the National Hurricane Center.

Adrian Hernandez

Tropics Update: Atlantic System Bears Watching as Pacific Development Becomes Likely

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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The Southwest is getting active once again with chances of flash flooding and river flooding. Friday, Las Vegas experienced some strong storms resulting in flooding and large hail falling across downtown. This was only the first of three low pressure system moving through the region this weekend, with the final two expected to deliver even heavier rain and mountain snow.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/VO_103026_RSW_HENDERSON, NV_GREAT VIDEO OF FLOODING WITH CAR STUCK_FB_MS_E103026-1793411988779.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Down south, heavy rain coming down in short periods of time created scenes like these. Unfortunately, folks having to be rescued from the floodwaters.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2116621232905101602" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2116621232905101602"></div>Through Sunday, the worst of it struck. WPC had issued a MODERATE (level 3 out of 4) risk for flash flooding. It definitely materialized, as we got a TON of flood reports over the last 24 hours across the Southwest.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-02 050841-1793621537970.png">This heavy rain led to more shocking video out of the region, as the water was rushing through areas near Payson, AZ!<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2117084682307391508" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2117084682307391508"></div>A PDS Flood Warning was even issued in southwest Colorado with expected river levels. While receding, we still saw a record-breaking crest at the San Juan River.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-02 045235-1793620396759.png">Cities across Arizona saw a quarter of their yearly rainfall in just one day! 48-hour totals took some of the cities above 7 inches which is an absurd amount of rain to pick up in the Southwest!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-02 050517-1793621275056.png">Stay tuned to WeatherNation, we've got you covered on all the impacts out west.

Recapping the Significant Flooding in the Southwest

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Time to wax the skis and grab the winter gear, skiing is back for the season in the United States. Arapahoe Basin became the first major ski area in the country to open for the season on October 28th, with Keystone just behind, opening on Friday the 30th.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-01 103324-1793554416103.jpg"> Snow moved across the Sierra Nevada Mountains, dropping 9" for Mammoth Mountain in California.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-01 182656-1793582843471.png"> That energy is pushing farther east. Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings remain in place through the Rockies Monday. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-02 051442-1793621699703.png"> Thankfully for the ski areas open this weekend, they have very high base elevations, with Keystone around 9,300 feet, but A-Basin and Wolf Creek are even higher, over 10,000 feet! Snow will start coming down heavily through Sunday morning, persisting well into Monday. Gusty winds could cause issues, however, with gusts over 40-50 mph possible at higher elevations. Chair lifts may need to be shut down for the gustiest of times.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/2026-11-02 05-15-48-1793621775276.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Heavy snow will fall where ski resorts and areas have yet to open, but it will provide a nice base for higher elevation areas. Mountain travel could be difficult at times this weekend, especially in higher elevations.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-02 051631-1793621806025.png">

Skiing Opens in the Rockies, Heavy Snow on the Way

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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Hopefully the costume's picked out by now, the candy receptacle is made or purchased, and physical conditioning is in peak form! It's the week of Halloween, which has all of the spooky lovers in a good mood. The only thing that might get in the way is Mother Nature.<h1>TREATS</h1>Here is how temperatures are shaping up as kids are heading out for some goodies. Jackets will likely be needed with costumes across the Northeast and the Northwest.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/pic6-1793394324970.png">Roughly, a line from the Front Range into the High Plains should be good to go if the timing/placement of this ridge is nailed down. That means we just have to prepare for the festivities, with some help from the Red Cross<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-26 080023-1793024061010.png">TRICKS</h1>This is where things get...tricky. Right now, the two different areas that are of some concern are the Southern Plains and the West. Another strong trough will pour onshore late in the week, keeping things out west pretty active. Ahead of that trough, plenty of moisture will get pulled north out of the Gulf, which could help fuel stronger storms, depending on how things come together.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/10313-1793484418419.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Along and downstream of that feature rippling through the Midwest and eventually the Mid-Atlantic might want to watch the timing on things, just to be sure an umbrella doesn't need to become a part of the costume too. It's too soon to know if it'll be a washout that affects plans all day or splash-n-dash storms that pick on a particular timeframe.<h1>FALL BACK</h1>Also, remember to set the clocks back an hour going into Sunday. Otherwise, you'll be waking up an hour early when you could have been sleeping off the candy coma instead. Might be a good weekend to replace the batteries in the smoke detectors and weather radios, too!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-31 154707-1793484346746.png">Or maybe take the day to ease into a new way of life, with sunsets closer to 5:00. Although latitude has something to do with it, location within your timezone has a lot to say too.

HALLOWEEN 2026: Is the weather a Trick or a Treat?

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Brittany Lockley

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A surge of tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Vance (EPAC) is increasing the threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of Texas as the state prepares for Halloween.&nbsp;Even a tornado near Uvalde, TX Thursday gave locals a scary sight.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2115960860254642544" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2115960860254642544"></div>Moisture streaming northward from the remnant tropical system is expected to interact with Gulf moisture, creating favorable conditions for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some communities could experience repeated rounds of heavy rain, increasing the potential for flooding in vulnerable areas.&nbsp;Flood watches are in effect for the western half of Texas.Keep up with WeatherNation LIVE for the latest on Flash Flood Warnings: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dDyjHc8DkA">YouTube LIVE STREAM</a><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-30 070255-1793365386255.png">Most of the storms will move from West to East Texas by Friday night. After a brief break, a wave of energy from the Four Corners will sweep through early Saturday. Trick-or-Treating should be fine for much of West Texas, as it should all move out by Saturday night. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/tx-1793365981551.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Additional rainfall totals of up to an inch are possible across parts of the region, with locally higher amounts where thunderstorms repeatedly develop over the same locations. These heavier downpours could overwhelm drainage systems and cause rapid rises in creeks, streams and low-lying roadways.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-30 070850-1793365759127.png">Flash flooding remains one of the most dangerous weather-related threats because water levels can rise quickly, sometimes with little warning. Motorists should never attempt to cross water-covered roads, as even relatively shallow moving water can sweep vehicles away.&nbsp;

Patrick Crawford

Flash Flood Concerns Across Texas Ahead of Halloween

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NEW HOME, JAMAICA - October 28, 2025, will be remembered as the day the island of Jamaica changed forever. Hurricane Melissa slammed into the western side of the island with 185 mph sustained winds, flattening areas of the island. Agencies have been reporting that insurance payments have been slow over the past year, leaving a shortfall of capital heading into what is the peak season for tourism there.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 065457-1793192735289.png">Hurricane Melissa devastated islands in the Caribbean in late October in 2025. Four months later, the National Hurricane Center has completed the post-storm analysis of Melissa, finding that the winds reached 190 mph, tying it with Hurricane Allen for the strongest ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin's history.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 070552-1793192770453.png">The folks at the National Hurricane Center concluded that Melissa reached a central pressure of 892 mb at its strongest, which lashed the western side of Jamaica with high winds, incredible storm surge, and prolonged rainfall. All of these factors contributed to 95 known fatalities as of the report, released February 26, 2026.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot 2026-02-25 095044-1772038470377.png">The origins trace back to a tropical wave emerging off of the western coast of Africa on October 13th. By midnight on the 26th, Melissa had rapidly developed into a major hurricane. With weak steering, the forecast track was HIGHLY uncertain. Even with this uncertainty, the forecast track was incredibly accurate by the National Hurricane Center (below)<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot 2026-02-25 095418-1772038476153.png">What's going to gain more attention is the upgrade to 190 mph winds. According to the National Hurricane Center, even though they didn't directly observe the winds specifically:<blockquote>"Based on a blend of satellite estimates, flight-level wind and dropsonde data"</blockquote>This ties it with Hurricane Allen from 1980, which was the previous strongest hurricane recorded in the Atlantic Basin.In March, the World Meteorological Organization <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/wmo-retires-the-name-melissa-following-devastating-impacts-last-fall">announced they were</a> retiring the name in the wake of the devastation. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 065440-1793193323670.png">The storm also produced the strongest wind gust ever recorded: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/hurricane-melissa-produces-strongest-gust-recorded-in-a-hurricane">Watch Here</a>Official Report from the National Hurricane Center: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL132025_Melissa.pdf">READ IT HERE</a> Josh Morgerman reliving Melissa: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/iCyclone/status/2009330402310381611?s=20">WATCH IT HERE</a>

Rob Bradley

Anniversary: Hurricane Melissa Makes Landfall in Jamaica

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The severe weather risk has shifted across portions of south Lake Michigan tonight, with Chicago in the risk area. Behind the upper-level low, there will be enough instability and energy in the atmosphere to spark up isolated severe storms with wind being the primary threat.

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A few showers and storms will continue overnight, mainly across southwest Michigan.

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Rainfall totals won't be all that impressive, but we could pick up on an inch or so in the heaviest of downpours.

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Temperatures will drop behind this front as well, back down into the 50s for the day on Monday! Feeling certainly like fall.

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Stay with WeatherNation for the latest on this top weather headline, as well as the rest of our national weather headlines!

Severe Weather Threat Across Southern Lake Michigan Overnight

Severe Storms Target the Plains & South to Start the Week

Secondary severe weather season is getting st

Tropics Update: Atlantic System Bears Watching as Pacific Development Becomes Likely

November is underway, but hurricane season is

Recapping the Significant Flooding in the Southwest

The Southwest is getting active once again wi

Skiing Opens in the Rockies, Heavy Snow on the Way

Time to wax the skis and grab the winter gear

HALLOWEEN 2026: Is the weather a Trick or a Treat?

Hopefully the costume's picked out by now, th

Flash Flood Concerns Across Texas Ahead of Halloween

A surge of tropical moisture associated with

Anniversary: Hurricane Melissa Makes Landfall in Jamaica

NEW HOME, JAMAICA - October 28, 2025, will be