Kevin Schneider

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After weeks of hot and mostly dry weather, the Southwest is beginning its transition into the annual North American Monsoon Season. A shift in the overall weather pattern is allowing deeper moisture to move north from the Pacific and Gulf, setting the stage for a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms across parts of Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah, southern Colorado, and Nevada.Through the overnight hours, the Storm Prediction Center has maintained a severe weather outlook for these areas of Arizona.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-12 194458-1783907180285.png">The North American monsoon is a seasonal wind shift that occurs each summer, transporting moisture from the eastern Pacific Ocean and Gulf of California into the Desert Southwest. As the moist air combines with intense daytime heating and mountainous terrain, thunderstorms become much more common during the afternoon and evening hours.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/monsoon-1783907186171.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The first surge of monsoonal moisture is expected to increase storm coverage through the coming days. While many of these storms will produce beneficial rainfall for areas experiencing drought, they will also be capable of dropping heavy rain over a short period of time. Because the Southwest’s dry soils do not absorb water efficiently, runoff can develop quickly, creating a heightened risk of flash flooding in washes, slot canyons, and other low-lying locations.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/07-12 rsw forecast-1783907263332.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Recently burned areas will be particularly susceptible to flooding and debris flows. Vegetation lost to wildfires leaves hillsides unable to absorb rainfall, allowing water, mud, and rocks to move rapidly downhill during intense thunderstorms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-12 194955-1783907425236.png">As the monsoon continues to strengthen through July, residents and visitors across the Southwest should be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions each afternoon. Even storms that last only a short time can produce dangerous flash flooding, making it important to avoid flooded roadways and never enter fast-moving water.

Adrian Hernandez

Alana Cameron

Monsoon Moisture Returns to the Southwest, Increasing Storm and Flash Flood Potential

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Life-threatening flash flooding developed last week on Thursday and Friday in Missouri to the SSW of St. Louis. Parts of Iron and Reynolds counties recorded upwards of 6-12 inches of rain, leading to water surging into homes and businesses. This resulted in numerous water rescues by emergency personnel, over 90 in fact, but the great news is everyone has been accounted for! With that being said, more rain and storms will continue over the next few days.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2075552085597429997" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2075552085597429997"></div><h2> Forecast</h2>Heavy rain and storms will continue to slowly follow the frontal boundary south into Monday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-12 195751-1783907912974.png">Severe storms are possible each day, with damaging winds expected as the primary hazard, but large hail and an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/07-12_rse bams forecast-1783907918779.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Several inches of rain will be possible. With the grounds very saturated, it will not take much to cause more flooding. So remember, TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-12 195846-1783907935905.png">

Flooding Rain, Severe Storms Continue to Track Across the South

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Hazy skies will be hovering over portions of the Gulf and the Southeastern United States as we head into the work week. Why is it so hazy? Saharan dust will be sent flying over the region at times, thick enough to make a difference in the color of the sun and potentially to air quality. Expect some of the thickest dust to hover over Florida and push into Texas this week.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/saharan fut-1783908048297.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>This is not unusual for this time of year. Outbreaks of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) typically occur in the Atlantic during the summer months as strong westerly waves move off of Africa, sending dust out over the Atlantic. Depending on the speed and intensity of the SAL outbreak, these plumes of dry, dusty air can reach parts of the U.S. at times, even the middle of the country!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 083614-1783521420831.png"><h1>Heat</h1>Hot and humid conditions will persist in the Southeast while the Saharan Air moves through. While the SAL does dry out the mid-levels of the atmosphere, the bottom 5,000 feet is typically unaffected, meaning humidity won't change much even though there may be fewer storms. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-12 200201-1783908126651.png">

Saharan Dust, Excessive Heat Impact the Southeast

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After several stormy days to end the previous week, high pressure is starting to take control of the Midwest and Northeast. As this ridge of high pressure remains wedged in the middle of the country, the jet stream energy will cut around the ridge down the East Coast. THis could bring rounds of storms to the region from the middle to end of the week.<h1>Heat</h1>Temperatures will warm quickly through the mid-week time frame, with highs in the upper 90s for some areas. Numerous record highs will be challenged with some cities warming up further on Wednesday. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-12 200314-1783908238470.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-12 200308-1783908244420.png">These temperatures are 10-20 degrees above the average for this time of year and will be accompanied by some humidity, meaning temperatures will feel warmer than the numbers shown. Avoid strenuous activity during these afternoons and drink plenty of water.<h1>Storms</h1>A cold front cutting down the Atlantic Coast could keep up some rain and possibly stronger storms, as jet stream energy will be strong aloft.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-12 084439-1783868326182.png">The SPC has issued an outlook for scattered severe storms on Tuesday for parts of New England, but timing and placement of storms still needs to be fine tuned, so be sure to check back in on this forecast.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-12 200305-1783908254847.png">Forecast models have been picking up on a line of strong storms, favoring Maine for some of the higher activity. All modes of severe weather are possible with this set-up, including a few tornadoes.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/07-12_rne bams-1783908260580.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Record Heat Returns To the Northeast, Storms Possible

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Several rounds of severe weather have been rolling off the Front Range into the Great Plains this week! A mid-level trough sparked severe weather Friday afternoon, bringing damaging winds and hail. At the Denver International Airport, wind gusted up to 72 mph.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1783736213990.png"><h1>FRIDAY:</h1>Damaging winds will be the primary threat along the Front Range and east into the Plains. Large hail is possible as well.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-10 063841-1783687129662.png"><h2>Timing</h2>Storms continue to push eastward into the Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas for the late hours. Storms should fizzle out by daybreak Saturday morning.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/BARON 5-1783736334233.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>A few locations could get hit a couple of times by thunderstorms this week, which means that some areas may see some locally heavier rainfall totals. Keep an eye on flood alerts in your area. With repeated rounds of storms, you may be at risk for flash flooding.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-10 064026-1783687247364.png">Flash flooding will be possible for many areas, though it will be more likely for some than others. Areas in dark green in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook (below) will have better chance to see scattered flash flooding incidents.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1783736373460.png">For more on this active forecast, be sure to join us on WeatherNation!

Jesse Kelley

Another Day of Storms for the Plains & Front Range

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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The Aspen Acres fire continues to burn in Southern Colorado. Evacuations remain in place but containment is increasing around Pueblo.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2074856035924205678" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2074856035924205678"></div>The Babylon and Cottonwood fires burning in Utah are now among some of the largest fires the state has ever seen.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1783633931789.png">Numerous additional wildfires continue to burn across Utah, Colorado, and Arizona, which have scorched tens of thousands of acres over the past week. Below is the most recent acreage of the larger fires in Utah and Colorado, along with their containment.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-03-29 061131-1783603203805.png"><h1>Fire Outlooks</h1>The fire weather outlooks are minimal as we head through the week, but there is a chance for some dry thunderstorms across the Front Range of the Rockies this week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-03-29 061724-1783603442497.png">Heat will build into the weekend so make sure you are doing your part to not be the problem!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-27 043144-1782556311355.png">Residents are encouraged to stay informed, follow local evacuation orders, and do their part to help prevent the start and spread of wildfires this summer.

Patrick Crawford

Babylon Fire in UT Surpasses 100,000 Acres, CO Fires Continue to Grow

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Brittany Lockley

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Colorado State University researchers have lowered their outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season as atmospheric conditions become increasingly favorable for the development of El Niño, a climate pattern that typically suppresses tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin.&nbsp;The updated forecast now projects&nbsp;nine named storms,&nbsp;four hurricanes, and&nbsp;one major hurricane&nbsp;of Category 3 strength or higher. While those numbers are below the long-term seasonal average, the outlook reflects activity across the entire Atlantic Basin. It does not indicate where storms may eventually track or make landfall.&nbsp;The expected increase in El Niño is one of the primary reasons behind the reduced forecast. During El Niño events, stronger-than-normal upper-level winds spread across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, increasing vertical wind shear. This hostile environment can disrupt the structure of developing tropical systems by separating thunderstorms from their low-level circulation, making it more difficult for storms to strengthen into hurricanes.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 095127-1783525916256.png">Despite the anticipated increase in wind shear, ocean temperatures across parts of the Atlantic remain warmer than average. Warm water serves as the fuel source for tropical cyclones, meaning any storm that develops in a favorable pocket of lower wind shear could still intensify. How these competing factors evolve during the peak of hurricane season will play a major role in determining the basin’s overall activity.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 095236-1783525964091.png">The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season occurs from mid-August through October, when sea surface temperatures are at their warmest and atmospheric conditions are generally most supportive of tropical development. Although seasonal forecasts help estimate how active a season may be, they cannot predict where individual storms will form or who may be impacted.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 095047-1783525931294.png">Residents along the Gulf Coast and Atlantic coastline need to prepare now rather than focus solely on the seasonal numbers. History has shown that even quieter hurricane seasons can produce devastating landfalls if a single storm reaches a populated coastline.&nbsp;

Colorado State University Scales Back 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

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An area of low pressure is moving off of the Rockies and into the Central Plains through the end of the week, generating severe storms and flooding rain. In Kansas, there has been several tornado warnings and confirmations of tornadoes throughout the day, For the overnight, the greatest risk of severe weather can be found in Kansas, Central Oklahoma, and North Texas. All severe threats remain on the table including very large hail and tornadoes which a few could be EF-2 or stronger. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/05/slot0-1683855099617.jpg"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/05/slot0-1683855128018.jpg"><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/05/Futurecast Now-1683855275678.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video> Have multiple ways to receive weather alerts tonight! After midnight, thunderstorms will begin to weaken in Oklahoma. However, we will still see lingering rain chances closer to the low in Western Kansas. Stay with WeatherNation for the latest on the severe weather threats, and why various areas will be impacted. We are streaming 24/7.

Significant Tornado Threat for the Central Plains Thursday Night

Monsoon Moisture Returns to the Southwest, Increasing Storm and Flash Flood Potential

After weeks of hot and mostly dry weather, th

Flooding Rain, Severe Storms Continue to Track Across the South

Life-threatening flash flooding developed las

Saharan Dust, Excessive Heat Impact the Southeast

Hazy skies will be hovering over portions of

Record Heat Returns To the Northeast, Storms Possible

After several stormy days to end the previous

Another Day of Storms for the Plains & Front Range

Several rounds of severe weather have been ro

Babylon Fire in UT Surpasses 100,000 Acres, CO Fires Continue to Grow

The Aspen Acres fire continues to burn in Sou

Colorado State University Scales Back 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Colorado State University researchers have lo