In 2020, Phil forecast a "short winter" when he did not see his shadow and predicted an early spring. In fact, the contiguous United States saw above-average temperatures in both February and March of last year.
The average contiguous U.S. temperature during February 2020 was 36.2°F, 2.3°F above the twentieth-century average. This ranked among the warmest one-third of the 126-year period of record. Much-above-average temperatures were observed across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as well as portions of California and Florida. New Jersey ranked third warmest, while Rhode Island and Delaware ranked fifth warmest. However, below-average temperatures were observed across portions of the central Rockies to western Texas and also in Alaska during February. The Alaska February temperature was 1.6°F, 3.2°F below the long-term average. This ranked among the coldest one-third of the 96-year period of record for the state and was the coldest February since 1999.However, California ranked cooler than average with five additional Western states ranking near average for the month.
In 1887, when he made his debut as the official groundhog forecaster for the entire country, Phil saw his shadow. His first prediction of six more weeks of winter was accurate for a few regions, but it came up short for several others.
According to the February 1887 Monthly Weather Review Form, the Northeast, Great Lakes region, and West saw temperatures well below normal. The Southeast and Gulf states saw temperatures well above normal during the month. And, according to the March 1887 Monthly Weather Review Form, the Northeast, Great Lakes region, Ohio Valley, and Southeast saw temperatures well below normal. Areas west of the Mississippi River valley saw temperatures above normal.